For the third consecutive month, retail trade faced decrease, with rates of -0.3% for volume of sales and -0.6% for nominal revenue in December, compared to the previous month (seasonally adjusted series). The rate of volume of sales accumulated in the period was -2.3%. Compared to December 2007, volume of sales increased 3.9%, whereas revenue, by 9.6%. With these results, the volume of sales of retail trade closed 2008 with increase of 9.1%, whereas nominal revenue rose 15.1%.

In the comparison December 2008/November 2008, among the eight activities which form retail trade, four had negative change, three had positive rates and one remained constant: -3.7% for Furniture and household appliances; -3.7% for Other articles of personal and domestic use; -1.4% for Medical, orthopedic, pharmaceutical, perfumery, stationery articles and cosmetics; -0.8% for Fuels and lubricants; 0.0% for Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco;  0.6% for Textiles, apparel and footwear; 1.2% for Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles; and 11.9% for Office material, computer and communication equipment.

In the comparison December 2008/December 2007, seven of the eight activities of retail trade faced increase of the volume of sales, the rates of which, in order of relevance to the overall result, were: 3.5% for Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco; 4.5% for Furniture and household appliances; 35.6% for Office, computer and communication material and equipment; 13.6% for Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic,  perfumery articles and cosmetics; 6.5% for Fuels and lubricants; 3.3% for Other articles of personal and domestic use; 14.6% for Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles; and –6.3% for Textiles, apparel and footwear.

ANNUAL RESULTS

The subsector of Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco had increase of 5.5% in volume of sales in 2008, compared to the previous year; with this result, this subsector accounted for 29% of the annual retail trade rate. This performance reflects, mainly, the increase of purchasing power of the population, as a consequence of the rise of salary volume of economy (based on the improvement of income and employment) and of the expansion of credit, according to data presented in the Monthly Employment Survey - (IBGE’s PME) and in the Brazil Bank Report.

The activity Fuels and household appliances represented, in 2008, the second major contribution to the annual result of Retail trade, and accounted for 26% of the overall rate, with 15.1% for volume of sales in relation to the previous year. Favorable conditions to consumer credit (especially in the first nine months of the year), improvement of real income and of employment (volume of real income usually earned by the employed population, estimated in December 2008 for the group of six metropolitan areas, increased by 7.6% in comparison with December 2007, according to PME) and the fall of prices (-2.8% according to IPCA), supported by the competition with important items were the main factors accounting for the positive result of this activity, which has increased for five consecutive years.

The activity Other articles of personal and domestic use, with the third major impact on the formation of the overall rate and responsible for 14% of it, had, in 2008, change of 15.6% in volume of sales compared to the result in 2007. Encompassing segments such as department stores, glasses shops, jewelry shops, sporting goods stores and toy stores, etc., this activity was also influenced by the favorable macroeconomic scenario of the country, especially in the period January-September.

The fourth major contribution to the overall rate was the activity Fuels and lubricants, which had a positive result in volume of sales, with accumulated change of 9.3% in 2008, compared to the previous year. This performance is due, mainly, to the stability of prices (0.55% in the year, according to IPCA), and also to the growth of economy, which was principally reflected by the increase of sales of new vehicles and the increase of fleet in the country.

The fifth major positive contribution to the overall result in 2008 came from the subsector Pharmaceutical, medial, orthopedic and perfumery articles, which had increase of 13.3% compared to the previous year. The expansion of salary volume, the popularization of “generic” medicines and the diversification of products available at supermarket shelves were the foundations of this positive performance for the fifth consecutive year.

Accounting for the sixth major impact on the result of retail trade in 2008, the activity Office, computer and communication material and equipment had increase of 33.5% in volume of sales compared to year 2007. Among the factors accounting for this performance, it is worth mentioning the significant fall of prices of computer-related items (-10.4% in 2008 for the sub-item computers, according to the IPCA), caused not only by fiscal measures implemented by the government in order to reduce digital exclusion, but also by increase of currency value (until September), which has added to the fall in the prices of raw material and imported products of this subsector.

The activity Textiles, apparel and footwear, with the seventh biggest contribution to the rate, in 2008, presented result of 4.9% compared to 2007. This figure is practically half of the result obtained in the previous years; this reflects the rise of prices of this kind of product, which occurred due to the reduction of value of the Brazilian currency in the last three months of that year.

Even considering the impact on the overall rate, the subsector Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles had the best result of its time series (which started in 2004), with change of 11.1% in relation to 2007, and reflecting the growth of economy in 2008.

EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE

For Extended retail trade, formed by retail and the other activities of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and Construction material, the changes observed in December 2008/November 2008, in the seasonally adjusted series, were -1.0% for volume of sales, and -0.8% for nominal revenue of sales, in a quarter with negative rates. Considering the indicators without seasonal adjustment, the changes were: 1.3% in the comparison December 2008/December 2007 and 9.9% accumulated in the year for volume of sales, and 5.6% and 15.1% for nominal revenue, respectively.

In relation to the activity Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, the results for volume of sales were: 3.5% compared to the previous year (seasonally adjusted); -4.5% in the comparison December 2008/December 2007, and 11.9% accumulated in the year 2008. The favorable conditions for credit and the economic growth of Brazil in the first three quarters of the year became the main factors accounting for the increase of the activity.

The subsector Construction Material faced decrease of -7.3% in the comparison with the previous month (with seasonal adjustment), and -3.6% compared to December 2007 and had a positive result accumulated in the year (7.8%). The macroeconomic variables which affected this result were, basically, the increase of salary volume and the expansion of credit, together with official measures directed at stimulating construction. 

RESULTS BY REGION

By Federative Units, the seasonally adjusted results by area for volume of sales show, in the month/previous month comparison, five states with positive changes and twenty-two with falling results. The main increases occurred in Santa Catarina (1.5%); Rio Grande do Norte (0.6%); and Rio de Janeiro (0.5%). The main decreases occurred in Piauí (-8.9%); Amapá (-6.8%); Paraíba (-4.5%); Pernambuco (-4.3%); and Acre (-3.8%).

Also in the analysis by area, eighteen of the twenty-seven Federative Units had positive results in the volume of sales in the comparison December 2008/December 2007, with the main changes occurring in Rondônia (11.8%); Roraima (9.0%); São Paulo (6.4%); Ceará (6.4%); and Santa Catarina (4.9%). The main negative results occurred in Pará (-7.2%); Amazonas (-2.4%) and Maranhão (-2.3%). In terms of participation in the formation of the retail rate, the highlights were São Paulo (6.4%); Rio de Janeiro (4.7%);  Paraná (4.3%); Santa Catarina (4.9%); and Minas Gerais (2.1%).

In terms of Extended retail trade, the highest rates of volume of sales came from Rondônia (18.0%); Roraima (15.9%); Piauí (10.9%); and Sergipe (5.0%). Considering the contribution to the overall result of the sector, the highlights were São Paulo (1.9%); Rio de Janeiro (1.9%); Bahia (4.1%); Minas Gerais (1.4%); and Santa Catarina (2.0%).

In terms of results accumulated in 2008, the main increments to the volume of retail sales were those of Rondônia (13.5%); São Paulo (12.5%); Rio Grande do Norte (11.0%); Mato Grosso (10.6%); and Mato Grosso do Sul (10.4%). The state of Amazonas had the only negative change (–1.5%).

For Extended retail trade, all the Federative Units had positive results. The highest rates were those of Rondônia (19.0%); Espírito Santo (17.2%); Mato Grosso (15.2%); and Goiás (14.0%).

RESULTS BY QUARTER

In terms of quarterly results, figures point to significant deceleration in the rhythm of increase of the volume of sales, from the third to the fourth quarter of the year, in Retail trade; the rate fell from de10.2% to 6.0%. The deceleration of Extended retail trade was more significant, and changed from 12.9% to 0.3%.

Among the tem activities surveyed, seven faced lower decrease in the fourth quarter of the year, being the three main ones Vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces, the rate of which  changed from 18.0% in the third quarter to 10.8%; Construction material (from 12.1,3% to –1.9%); and Textiles, apparel and footwear (from 7.3% to –5.4%), followed by Other articles of personal and domestic use (from 17.8% to 6.5%); Furniture and household appliances (from 17.9% to 7.7%) and Office, computer and communication material and equipment (from 38.6% to 32.9%).

The opposite (a higher rhythm of increase) occurred to volume of sales of the activities: Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles (from 9.3% to 12.0%); Hypermarkets, supermarkets, beverages and tobacco (from 4.8% to 5.4%) and Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles and cosmetics (from 13.5% to 13.9%).

RESULTS BY SEMESTER

The second semester of the year had increase of 7.9% compared to the same period in the previous year; this result was below that of the first quarter, which provided the worst result in the last four semesters (10.6%), and worsened the conjuncture of the last quarter of the year.