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In December, industrial employment decreased by 1.8%

February 09, 2009 09h00 AM | Last Updated: September 26, 2018 04h38 PM

It was the biggest decrease compared to the immediately previous month (with seasonal adjustment) since the beginning of the series, in 2001. Compared to December 2007, the indicator had its first negative rate (- 1.1%) after 29 consecutive months with increase. However, considering the index accumulated in the year, the result was positive (2.1%). In 2008, the number of hours paid increased by 1.9%, but fell both in comparison with the immediately previous month and (- 1.7%) – seasonally adjusted series – and in comparison with December 2007 (- 1.8%, the lowest rate in five years). The real payroll closed year 2008 with gain of 6.0%, but decreased 0.7% in relation to the result in November 2008 (seasonally adjusted series), having, compared to December 2007, the36th consecutive hike (4.1%). 

SALARIED EMPLOYED PERSONS

 

In December 2008, in the series without seasonal influences, industrial employment decreased 1.8% in relation to November, with the biggest reduction in the time series which started in 2001. This was the third consecutive negative result, in a period when there was accumulated decrease of 2.5%. As a consequence, the quarterly moving average index of December (-0.8%) accelerated the rhythm of decrease in comparison with the previous month (-0.2%).

 

Compared to December 2007, employed persons had its first negative rate (-1.1%), interrupting a sequence of 29 months with growing results; it had the lowest result since January 2004 (-1.2%). The indicator for the closing of the year was 2.1%, below the result accumulated until September (2.7%), before the change of the world economic scenario. In the analysis by quarter, the fourth quarter of 2008 had positive change of 0.3% compared to the same period in 2007, but in comparison with the immediately previous month – seasonally adjusted series – it faced decrease of 1.1%, interrupting a series of ten quarters of expansion in this comparison.

 

In the monthly indicator, the number of workers was 1.1% lower than in December 2007, with reduction in eleven of the fourteen areas and in nine of the eighteen subsectors surveyed. São Paulo (-0.8%), Santa Catarina (-3.2%), Paraná (-3.1%) and the Northeast Region (-2,0%) accounted for the most significant negative changes in the country. In these states, the subsectors that most contributed to the reduction of employment were: apparel (-11.3% and -14.2% in the industries of São Paulo and Santa Catarina, respectively); wood (-21.0%) in Paraná and textiles (-8.3%) in the industry of the Northeast Region. It is worth mentioning that São Paulo, which accounts for approximately 35.0% of industrial employment, had  not faced any decrease of this indicator since April 2004 (-0.8%). In this place, the subsectors means of transportation and electronic material and communication equipment  which had bee leading the national increase until September, faced reduction of the rhythm of expansion compared to results of previous years. In terms of subsectors, in the total of the country, the main negative highlights were apparel (-8.4%), footwear and leather articles (-8.7%) and wood (-11.9%).

 

On a quarterly basis, industrial employment has had positive results for ten consecutive quarters, with deceleration from the third to the fourth quarter (from 2.5% to 0.2%, respectively); both results refer to comparisons with the same period in the previous year. The loss of dynamism observed between these two periods reached most areas (11 of the 14 areas) and sectors (16 of the 18). In the analysis by subsector, the most significant decreases between July-September and October-December were those of machinery and equipment, with change from 10.9% to 5.8%; chemical products (from 9.4% to 1.4%), means of transportation (from 8.7% to 4.1%) and electronic material and communication equipment (from 11.1% to 5.8%). Among the areas, the highlights were: São Paulo (from 3.1% to 0.5%), Minas Gerais (from 6.1% to 3.0%), Paraná (from 1.1% to -1.6%) and Rio Grande do Sul (from 3.1% to 0.8%).

 

In the index for the end of 2008, the number of workers increased by 2.1%, practically repeating the result of 2007 (2.2%), being the highlight the positive contributions of eleven areas and twelve subsectors. São Paulo (3.0%), Minas Gerais (4.2%), Northeast and central West Region (2.6%) and Rio Grande do Sul (2.1%) were the most relevant contributions to the overall rate. The leadership on the overall average, in terms of subsectors, came from machinery and equipment (10.4%), means of transportation (8.5%), electronic and communications machines and equipment (10.6%) and food products and beverages  (2.3%). It is worth mentioning that the three main sectors mentioned show clear loss of rhythm compared to the figure accumulated in the year until September, affected by the deceleration which occurred more significantly in the last quarter of the year. On the other hand, footwear and leather articles (-8.7%), apparel (-6.1%) and wood (-8.7%) kept the main decreases of 2008 and, among the areas, Santa Catarina (-1.4%), Pernambuco (-0.9%) and Espírito Santo (-0.4%).

 

NUMBER OF HOURS PAID

 

The number of hours paid to industry workers, in December, decreased by 1.7% for the second consecutive month, compared to the immediately previous year, in the series without seasonal influences. As a consequence, the quarterly moving average indicator which, in October, interrupted a four-month upward trend, and had a result of -0.4% in November, faced more significant decrease in December (-1.2%). Also in the series with seasonal adjustment, compared to the immediately previous quarter, the fourth quarter of 2008 had decrease of 1.7%, after hike of 0.9% in the previous period.

 

Compared to the same month in the previous year, the number of hours paid decreased 1.8% in December, the lowest rate since December 2003 (-1.9%) and the indicator accumulated in 2008 was 1.9%. In the analysis by quarter, the last three months of the year indicated negative change of 0.2% compared to the same period in the previous year.

 

Compared to December 2007, the number of hours paid fell by 1.8%, with decrease in eleven of the fourteen areas and in eleven of the eighteen subsectors surveyed. In terms of subsector, the main negative contributions came from apparel (-8.7%), wood (-11.5%) and textiles (-7.8%). On the other hand, non-metallic minerals (6.2%), petroleum refining and alcohol production (12.3%) and metallurgy (4.3%) were the main positive contributions. It is worth mentioning that electronic material and communication equipment  (-3.0%), means of transportation (-1.2%) and machinery and equipment (0.7%), which had been the leaders in terms of increase, faced clear deceleration of the number of hours paid compared to the September and October results.

 

Also considering the monthly indicator, the areas which represented the main negative contributions to the overall result were: São Paulo (-1.4%), Paraná (-3.8%) and North and Central West Region (-3.5%). In São Paulo eight subsectors faced decrease of the number of hours paid, being the main highlights rubber and plastic (-11.1%) and electronic material and communications equipment (-8.4%). In the industry of Paraná, wood (-23.7%) and apparel (-19.4%) were the main negative contributions, as well as in the North and Central West Region (with -17.6% and -13.9%, respectively)

 

In the analysis by quarter, with change of -0.2% in the period October-December, the number of hours paid interrupted a sequence of eleven quarters with positive rates. Between the third (2.5%) and fourth (-0.2%) quarter of 2008, in both comparisons versus the same quarter in the previous year, fourteen areas and seventeen subsectors pointed to increase between the two periods. Among the subsectors, the highlights were machinery and equipment (from 12.3% to 5.4%), means of transportation (from 9.4% to 2. 7%) and electronic material and communications equipment (from 10.3% to 1.2%), whereas among the areas the highlights were Minas Gerais (from 6.8% to 3.0%) and São Paulo (from 3.2% to 0.0%).

 

The indicator accumulated in the year increased 1.9% in 2008, practically repeating the result observed in 2007 (1.8%). Eleven areas had increase of the number of hours paid in this comparison, being the main highlight São Paulo (2.8%), Minas Gerais (4.6%) and North and Central West Region (2.5%). In the analysis by area, twelve subsectors had increase of the number of hours paid, with the most significant contributions coming from: machinery and equipment (11.0%), means of transportations (8.9%) and electronic material and communication equipment (8.4%). On the other hand, the most significant negative contributions were those of footwear and leather articles (-9.2%) and apparel (-6.1%), among the subsectors and by Santa Catarina (-0.9%) and Pernambuco (-2.1%), among the areas surveyed.

The deceleration of these indicators was evident in the monthly and quarterly comparisons, reflecting in the end of the year. Another sign of lower dynamism was observed in the comparisons free from seasonal influences, in which employment and the number of hours paid showed, for the third consecutive month, negative rates compared to the previous year, causing the comparison with the previous year to indicate record decreases for the two variables (-1.1% in employed persons and -1.7% in the number of hours paid).

 

REAL PAYROLL 

In December, the seasonally adjusted cost of real payroll of industry workers decreased by 0.7% in relation to the figure in the immediately previous month; this was the third consecutive negative rate, with accumulated loss of 3.6%. With these results, the quarterly moving average indicator decreased 1.2% between November and December, after virtual stability in the previous month. Also in the series with seasonal adjustment, in the quarterly index versus the immediately previous quarter, the value of real payroll fell by 0.7% in the last quarter of the year, interrupting ten consecutive quarters of positive rates.

 

Compared to similar periods in the previous year, results remain positive: 4.1% in the monthly indicator,  4.3% in the fourth quarter and 6.0% accumulated in the year.

 

The monthly indicator of real payroll increased 4.1%, resulting in the 33rd consecutive positive rate. To this result contributed twelve of the fourteen areas surveyed, with São Paulo (6.0%) as the main positive impact, mainly due to means of transportation (8.3%), machinery and equipment (8.2%) and metal products, respectively (14.4%). In second and third places come Minas Gerais (4.1%) and Paraná (5.4%). These areas had, respectively, the main salary increases in means of transportation (31.6%) and machinery and equipment and electronic and communications appliances (24.9%); and machinery and equipment (15.3%) and food products (8.4%). On the other hand, only Rio Grande do Sul (-1.1%) faced decrease mainly due to the subsectors of food products and beverages (-12.9%) and footwear and leather articles (-4.3%).

 

By subsector, still considering the monthly indicator, the value of real payroll increased in fifteen of the eighteen industrial sectors. The major positive contributions came from means of transportation (10.5%), machinery and equipment (8.2%), metal products (10.2%) and electronic machines and communication equipment (7.1%). The main decreases were those of apparel (-14.0%) and wood (-9.9%). 

 

In the analysis by quarter, the value of real payroll had had positive rates for twenty consecutive periods, compared to the same quarter in the previous year, but decelerated between the third (7.1%) and fourth (4.3%) quarters of 2008. Twelve areas and thirteen subsectors reduced the rhythm of increase of real payroll between the two periods, being the highlights chemical products, which changed from 17.8% to 3.5%, means of transportation (from 12.4% to 7.7%) and metallurgy (from 15.0% to 8.1%), among the sectors; and Paraná (from 10.0% to 6.0%), Minas Gerais (from 11.9% to 8.2%) and São Paulo (from 8.4% to 4.8%), among the areas.

 

The indicator accumulated in the year closed 2008 at 6.0%, with increment of real payroll in all the areas surveyed. The major positive impacts came from São Paulo (7.0%) and Minas Gerais (9.0%), being the highlights, respectively, the increases of means of transportation (11.2%) and chemical products (15.1%); and means of transportation (17.8%) and non-metallic minerals (19.1%). In terms of subsectors, among the thirteen activities which had increase in the volume of salary, the main ones were means of transportation (11.7%), machinery and equipment (8.1%) and metal products (13.0%). In terms of negative contributions, the main impacts were footwear and leather articles (-6.1%) and paper and printing (-2.4%).