From November to December 2008, the seasonally adjusted indexes of industrial production by area decreased in twelve of the fourteen areas surveyed; the most significant decreases occurred in Minas Gerais (-16.4%), Bahia (-15.6%) and São Paulo (-14.9%). The other decreases were below the national average (-12.4%): Ceará (-4.1%), Pernambuco (-5.7%), Pará (-6.7%), Santa Catarina (-7.5%), Espírito Santo (-7.9%), Rio de Janeiro (-8.2%),Northeast Region (-8.9%), Rio Grande do Sul (-10.0%) and Paraná (-11.3%). The only areas which had increase of population between November and December were Amazonas (0.9%) and Goiás (0.4%). Even with the decrease of rhythm in the last three months of the year, all the areas ended 2008 with rising results, except Santa Catarina (-0.7%) which, besides factors related to the economic crisis, also faced problems due to the excess of rain which has recently affected the state. 

Also in the seasonally adjusted series, compared to the immediately previous quarter, all the areas surveyed faced reduction of rhythm from the fourth to the third quarter, reflecting the effects of the world financial crisis since September. This deceleration is mainly observed in Espírito Santo, which changed from -0.2%, in the third quarter, to decrease of 21.7%, in the fourth one, being followed by Minas Gerais (from 2.2% to -16.2%) and Rio Grande do Sul (from 3.0% to -10.3%). 

Compared to December 2007, the national industrial sector decreased by 14.5%, reaching the lowest result in all its times series, even considering the occurrence of two additional business days in 2008 in relation to the same month in the previous year. In this comparison, regional indexes were predominantly negative, except in Goiás (1.1%), and evidenced serious downward trend and  increased of the groups of areas with smaller production. Espírito Santo (-29.6%), Minas Gerais (-27.1%), Rio Grande do Sul (-15.5%), São Paulo (-14.5%), Bahia (-13.9%) and Santa Catarina (-10.8%) had two-digit decreases. The other results were: Ceará (-3.9%), Pernambuco (-6.2%), Paraná (-6.7%), Pará (-6.9%), Amazonas (-9.3%), Rio de Janeiro (-9.6%)  and Northeast Region (-9.7%). 

Signs of deceleration were also evident in the comparison between the last quarter of 2008 and the same period of 2007, with decrease of production in eleven areas from one period to the other. The only rates which kept positive rates in the fourth quarter were Pará (1.6%), Goiás (1.4%) and Paraná (1.0%).

Due to the sudden change in the world economic scenario, all the results for industrial production by area in the end of 2008 were below the figures accumulated until September. This situation was a consequence of the deceleration of industrial activity mainly in the fourth quarter of the year. Espírito Santo (9.2 percentage points), Minas Gerais (5.0 percentage points) and São Paulo (3.4 percentage points) had the biggest losses between the two periods, since a significant part of their industry is base don ca production and on commodity production, especially metals (iron ore and steel production), sectors which decelerated significantly in the last quarters.  

AMAZONAS

In December, the industrial sector of Amazonas grew by 0.9% compared to the previous month, in the seasonally adjusted series, after decreasing by 12.1% between September and November. The quarterly moving average index decreased by 4.0% among the quarters which ended in December and November, the third consecutive negative rate, with accumulated loss of 6.1%.

Compared to December 2007, the decrease was 9.3%, the second negative rate and the lowest result since February 2007. So, the index accumulated in the year was 3.9%, below the figure in the end of 2007 (4.5%). In the quarterly indicators, production in the last quarters of 2008 fell by 4.7% compared tot the same period of 2007 and by 6.1% compared to the immediately previous quarter – seasonally adjusted series.

The negative result (-9.3%) of the monthly index  may be seen as a consequence of the decreases in seven of the eleven subsectors surveyed, especially electronic material and communication equipment (-35.1%), in which the highlight was the reduction of the production of mobile telephones and television sets; and to a lower extent editing and printing  (-22.5%) and metal products (-22.8%), mainly affected by the decreases of DVD’s and shaving appliances.  On the other hand, the main positive impact came from other transportation equipment (34.7%), due to the production contribution of motorcycles. 

In the analysis by quarter, it is possible to observe that the industry of Amazonas, which had been presenting positive results for six consecutive semesters, compared to the same period in the previous year, faced decrease of 4.7% in the fourth quarter of 2008. Six subsectors contributed to the reduction of rhythm between the third (6.1%) and the fourth (-4.7%) quarters of 2008, being the highlights: other transportation equipment, which changed from 22.2% to –5.0% between the two period, electronic material and communication equipment (from 3.0% to -9.8%) and editing and printing (from 20.1% to -12.4%).

Concerning the indicator accumulated in the year (3.9%), the increase resulted from  the positive performance of six subsectors. The main positive contributions to the overall index were other transportation equipment (16.7%), editing and printing (22.2%) and electronic material and communication equipment (2.7%) leading the positive contributions to the overall index. These subsectors were affected, respectively, by the following items: motorcycles; DVDs; and mobile telephones. On the contrary, metal products (-15.1%) and machinery and equipment (-11.7%) accounted for the main negative impacts, mainly affected by shavers, and air-conditioning appliances.

 

PARÁ

In December 2008, the industrial production of Pará fell by 6.7% compared to the previous month, in the seasonally adjusted series, accumulating, in the last two months, loss of 11.3%.  Compared to the same month in the previous year, there is also decrease (-6.9%), interrupting a sequence of twelve positive rates. Concerning the indicator accumulated in the year, the sector ends 2008 with expansion of 5.6%, a result above the 2.7% of 2007. In the fourth quarter of 2008, production surpassed that of the same period of 2007 by 1.6%, but was 3.6% below the figure of the immediately previous quarter – seasonally adjusted series.

In the December 2008/December 2007 comparison, the industry of Pará fell by 6.9%; this reduction is probably due to the negative performance of mining and quarrying industry (-21.7%),once manufacturing industry kept its positive rate (8.0%) in this type of comparison. In the former segment, the highlight was the reduction in the extraction of iron ore. In manufacturing industry, three of the five subsectors had positive rates, with metallurgy (24.2%) as the highlight, due to the increased production of aluminum oxide. On the other hand, among the two activities which had falling rates, the most relevant negative figure came from wood (-32.4%), affected, to a great extent, by the decrease in the production of sawed wood and plywood.  

On a quarterly basis. The industry of Pará reduced its rhythm of increase from the third (8.6%) to the fourth quarter (1.6%) of the year; both comparisons refer to the same periods in the previous year. Among these two periods, five of the six activities surveyed had reduced dynamism, especially concerning the decrease in the mining and quarrying sector, which changed from expansion of 12.4%, in the third quarter, to decrease of 4.0% in the period October-December, whereas metallurgy (from 10.8% to 22.5%) had the only increase.

 

In terms of the indicator for closing 2008, the industrial production in Pará increased 5.6%, with positive results both in mining and quarrying industry (6.1%), due to a bigger extraction of iron ore, and in manufacturing industry  (5.1%). In the latter, the main positive highlight was the sector of metallurgy (11.3%), whereas wood (-24.0%) had the only negative rate. In these activities, the highlights were aluminum oxide, in the former subsector, and sawed wood, in the latter. 

 

Finally, the quarterly moving average index, which fell 2.7% between November and December, faced acceleration of decrease in comparison with the performance of the previous month (-1.5%). Also in the seasonally adjusted series, the industry of Pará decreased 3.6% in the last quarter of the year, inverting the expansion of 4.5% observed in the third quarter of 2008.

 

 

 

NORTHEAST REGION

 

 

In December, the industrial production of Northeast Region, in the series without seasonal adjustment, fell by 8.9% in relation to the immediately previous month, the third consecutive negative rate, accumulating loss of 12.9%. With these results, the quarterly moving average index fell by 4.4%, between November and December, contributing to the upward trend observed since October.

 

 

Compared to December 2007, the industry of the Northeast Region decreased by 9.7%, the third consecutive negative result. Considering the index accumulated in the year, there was increase of 1.4%, a result below that of the closing of 2007 (3.1%). In the analysis by quarter, the fourth quarter of 2008 had decrease of 5.2% compared to the same period in 2007 and – 5.3% compared to the immediately previous quarter – seasonally adjusted series.

 

 

The decrease of 9.7% in relation to the previous year reflected, above all, the negative rates observed in nine of the eleven subsectors surveyed, with the main impact over the overall index coming from chemical products (-33.1%); and, to a lower extent, textiles (-29.1%) and electric machines, appliances and material (-43.5%). In these subsectors the highlights were, respectively, ethylene, polyethylene; cotton cloth; electrodes. The main positive contributions, on the other hand, cam from cellulose and paper (12.8%) and apparel (32.3%), mainly due to the production of cellulose and shirts.

 

On a quarterly basis, the production rhythm of industry in the Northeast Region decelerated in the fourth quarter (-5.2%), versus the third one (2.8%). Both comparisons refer to the same period in the previous year, and this is the first negative result since the fourth quarter of 2003 (-4.8%). Among the periods of July-September and October-December 2008, there was decrease of participation in nine subsectors, especially chemical products, which changed from 2.2% to -19.5%; cellulose and paper (from 45.9% to 9.4%) and electronic material and communication equipment (from 2.2% to -29.0%).

 

The decrease of 9.7% in relation to the previous year reflected, above all, the negative rates observed in nine of the eleven subsectors surveyed, with the main impact over the overall index coming from chemical products (-33.1%); and, to a lower extent, textiles (-29.1%) and electric machines, appliances and material (-43.5%). In these subsectors the highlights were, respectively, ethylene, polyethylene; cotton cloth; electrodes. The main positive contributions, on the other hand, cam from cellulose and paper (12.8%) and apparel (32.3%), mainly due to the production of cellulose and shirts.

 

 

The index accumulated in the period January-December increased 1.4%, base don the results of seven subsectors. The most relevant contributions on the average of industry came from cellulose and paper (25.6%), food products and beverages (3.9%) and petroleum refining and alcohol production (2.6%), affected by the items: cellulose; peanuts; and alcohol. On the other hand, the most significant negative impacts came from chemical products (-4.8%) and textiles (-6.5%), mainly affected by the items polyethylene and cotton cloth.

 

 

CEARÁ

 

 

The seasonally adjusted industrial production of Ceará decreased 4.1% compared to the immediately previous month, after having decreased by 3.6% in November. With these results, the quarterly moving average indicator decreased 2.2%, being the second consecutive negative rate and having accumulated decrease of 3.9%.

 

 

The industrial production in the state fell by 3.9% in relation to December 2007, and increased 2.5% in terms of the index accumulated in the year. In the quarterly analysis, the fourth quarter decreased by 1.3% in relation to the same quarter of 2007, and by 3.6% compared to the immediately previous quarter (seasonally adjusted series).

 

 

 

The monthly indicator of industrial production in Ceará decreased by 3.9%, with negative rates in five of the ten industrial subsectors surveyed. The major negative impact came from textiles (-35.9%), due to the reduced production of cotton cloth and cloths made of artificial fiber. It is also worth mentioning footwear and leather articles (-8.7%) and electric machines, appliances and equipment (-281%), due, respectively, to the lower production of leather and plastic footwear, and transformers. On the other hand, the main positive influences were those of chemical products 19.4%) and petroleum refining and alcohol production (30.5%), due, respectively, to the growing production of paints and varnishes for construction and diesel.

 

 

In the analysis by quarter, the industry in Ceará faced loss of dynamism, from the third (5.9%) to the fourth quarter of 2008 (-1.3%); both comparisons refer to the same period in the previous year. This downward movement is confirmed by the reduction observed in six activities, between the third and fourth quarters. The main negative contributions were those of footwear and leather articles, which changed from 0.5% to -16.6%; food products and beverages (from 13.7% to 6.5%) and textiles (from -5.3% to -14.0%).

 

 

Considering the indicator accumulated in the year, the industrial production of Ceará increased 2.5% with positive rates in six of the seven industrial subsectors. The main positive impacts came from food products and beverages (11.5%), chemical products (17.3%), and metal products (17.5%), due, respectively, to the growing production of toasted peanuts and cashew nuts; paints and varnishes for construction; lids and metallic capsules. On the other hand, the main decreases came from textiles (-8.6%) and petroleum refining and alcohol production (-13.2%), due, respectively, to the reduced production of cotton cloth and diesel.

 

 

 

PERNAMBUCO

 

 

In December, the seasonally adjusted industrial production of Pernambuco decreased by 5.7% in relation to the immediately previous month; it was the fourth consecutive negative result, with accumulated loss of 9.4%. The quarterly moving average indicator had the second negative rate (-3.1%), accumulating decrease of 4.4% between October ad December.

 

 

In relation to the same period last year, the industry of Pernambuco decreased 6.2% in comparison with the figure of December 2007, whereas in terms of the indicator accumulated there was increase of 4.2%. In the quarterly analysis, the results of the fourth quarter of 2008 were negative, both compared to the same quarter in the previous year (-2.3%), and in relation to the third quarter in the year – seasonally adjusted series (-3.7%). 

 

 

In terms of the monthly indicator, the industrial production of Pernambuco fell by 6.2%, due to the negative performance of nine of the eleven subsectors surveyed. The main negative contributions came from food products and beverages (-5.9%), chemical products (-18.0%) and e electric machines, appliances and material (-29.7%), mainly due to the reduced production of the items: crystallized sugar; styrene-butadiene rubber; batteries. The main positive contributions came from petroleum refining and alcohol production (33.2%) and metallurgy (8.8%), mainly as a consequence of the increases in alcohol and carbon steel square bars.

 

 

In the quarterly analysis, after the significant deceleration observed between the first (13.8%) and the second quarter (1.0%) of 2008, the industry of Pernambuco had a higher rhythm of increase in the third quarter (5.8%), and increased again in the fourth one (-2.3%), all comparisons refer to similar periods in the previous year. Reduced dynamism was observed between the third and the fourth quarters, being the highlight chemical products, which changed from 4.2% to -16.6% between the two periods, food products and beverages (from  6.0% to -1.3%) and metal products (from 5.6% to -9.8%).

 

 

In terms of the indicator accumulated in the year, the industry of Pernambuco increased 4.2%, with positive results in eight activities. The main highlights came from food products and beverages (4.1%), metallurgy (9.5%) and petroleum refining and alcohol production (54.8%), affected by the bigger production of the following items: crystallized sugar; aluminum plates and bands; and alcohol, respectively. The main negative contributions came from footwear and leather articles (16.3%) and cellulose and paper (-5.6%), mainly because of the reduced production of rubber footwear; and paper bags and packages.

 

 

BAHIA

 

 

In December, the seasonally adjusted industrial production of Bahia decreased by 15.6% in relation to the immediately previous month, being the fourth consecutive negative rate, and with accumulated decrease of 20.3%. With these results, the quarterly moving average indicator fell 6.7% and accumulated decrease of 8.5%, after three months with negative results.

 

 

Compared to the same periods in 2007, the industrial production of Bahia fell by 13.9% in relation to December 2007, and increased by 2.3% in terms of the index accumulated in the year. The fourth quarter had decrease of 5.5% in comparison with the same quarter in the previous year, and 8.5% compared to the third quarter of 2008 (seasonally adjusted series).

 

 

The monthly indicator of industry in Bahia fell 13.9%, and had negative rates in six of the nine subsectors surveyed. The main negative impact came from chemical products (-41.1%), due to the lower production of non-saturated ethylene and low-density polyethylene. In second place came petroleum refining and alcohol production (-10.7%), mainly due to the reduced production of diesel and naphtha’s; and automotive vehicles (-100.0%), due to the interruption of production of cars during a period of collective vacation. The main positive contributions came from food products and beverages (16.5%) and cellulose and paper (14.2%), due, respectively, to the increase of the production of  soybean oil, flour and “pellets” of the extraction of soybean oil and cellulose.

 

 

In the quarterly analysis, the fourth quarter had decrease of 5.5%, a result significantly below the one in the third quarter (6.1%); both comparisons refer to the same quarter in the previous year. This reduction of dynamism can be seen as a consequence of the decrease of production of seven among the nine activities surveyed, from the third to the fourth quarter of 2008, being the highlight chemical products, which changed from 3.7% to -21.8%, cellulose and paper (from 53.6% to 10.4%) and automotive vehicles (from 0.5% to -42.6%).

 

 

Considering the indicator accumulated in the year, the industry of Bahia increased 2.3%, with positive results in seven of the nine subsectors. The main positive contributions were those of cellulose and paper (29.2%), food products and beverages (4.0%), non-metallic minerals (17.3%) and metallurgy (4.0%), due, respectively, to the bigger production of cellulose; beer and draft beer; concrete; copper square bars, profiles and bars. The negative rates came from chemical products (-5.3%) and automotive vehicles (-10.5%), due to the reduced production of high-density polyethylene and cars.

 

 

MINAS GERAIS

 

 

The seasonally adjusted industrial production of Minas Gerais decreased by 16.4% from November to December 2008, its the fifth consecutive negative rate, and accumulated decrease of 30.9% in the period. It is worth mentioning that the decrease of this month was the biggest in the whole time series. This way, the quarterly moving average index had a higher rhythm of increase by falling 10.2% between November and December, its fourth consecutive negative rate, with accumulated decrease of 16.2%. Also in the adjusted series, compared to the immediately previous month, it was observed that the subsector closed the fourth quarter of the year with decrease of 16.2%, interrupting a sequence of eighteen quarters with positive rates.

 

 

Compared to December 2007, there was decrease of -27.1%, the lowest rate in the time series in this type of comparison. The accumulated indicator closed 2008 with increase of 1.6%, a result significantly below that of September (6.6%). In the quarterly analysis, in the period October-December 2008, there was reduction of (12.7%) in comparison with the same quarter last year.

 

The industrial production of Minas was 27.1% blow that of December 2007, being affected by the decreases in manufacturing industry (-22.2%) and mining and quarrying industry (-50.8%). In the latter, which accounted for the main negative contribution to the overall index, the highlight is the decrease of production of iron ore resulting from the decrease of international demand. In manufacturing industry, among the ten activities with falling results were automotive vehicles (-55.9%), metallurgy (-35.5%) and other chemical products (-35. 1%). In these subsectors, the main negative impacts were the reductions observed in, respectively: iron-niobium; and superphosphates. On the other hand, the most significant negative contribution was that of food products (7.2%), mainly due to the items fruit yogurt and sterilized milk.

 

In terms of quarterly evolution, the decrease of 12.7% of the last quarter of 2008, inverting the accelerated rhythm of expansion throughout the year, which registered 7.4% in the first quarter, 5.9% in the second and 6.7% in the third, all of them compared to the same period in the previous year. This loss of dynamism from the third to the fourth quarter occurred in eleven of the thirteen industrial subsectors.

 

The indicator accumulated in the end of the year shows increase of 1.6%, and is based on the increase of six of the thirteen activities surveyed, being the highlights the increases of non-metallic minerals (11.3%), petroleum refining and alcohol production (11.6%) and food products (4.2%). On the other hand, among the sectors among the subsectors with decreasing rates were the highlights from other chemical products (-4.7%) and textiles (-7.3%), mainly affected by the items fertilizers and insecticides, in the former, and cotton cloth, in the latter.

 

 

 

ESPÍRITO SANTO

 

The seasonally adjusted industrial production of Espírito Santo fell by 7.9% from November to December 2008 and has accumulated decrease of 32.8% since September. As a consequence, the quarterly moving average index increased its downward movement (-10.7%), between November and December, keeping a sequence of four negative results, and totaling loss of 22.1% in the period.

 

Compared to December 2007, there was decrease of -29.6%, the lowest rate in the time series. The indicator accumulated in the year, which was 9.3% in November, closed 2008 with increase of 5.6%. In the analysis by quarter, there were negative rates compared to both the fourth quarter of 2007 (-18.5%) and the immediately previous quarter (-21.7%).

 

The monthly indicator decreased 29.6%, due to the negative performance of all the five subsectors surveyed. In this comparison, metallurgy (-48.4%) and mining and quarrying industry (-42.6%) accounted for significant negative contributions to the overall rate, being the highlights, in this case, the reduced production of steel ingots and plates, in the former subsector; and iron ore, in the second.

 

In the quarterly evolution, after a sequence of twelve quarters with positive results (with two-digit increases in the last four months), industry in Espírito Santo faced deceleration between the third (12.4%) and the fourth (-18.5%) quarters of 2008; all comparisons refer to the same period in the previous year. The five elements faced decrease in participation between the two periods, being the highlights metallurgy, which changed from 18.8% in the period July-September to -37.5% in the period October-December; mining and quarrying industry (from 18.1% to -10.8%); and cellulose and paper (from 7.6% to -15.2%).

 

Considering the index accumulated in the year, the production in Espírito Santo increased by 5.6%, with positive rates in three subsectors, compared to 2007. The main positive contributions to the overall industry came from mining and quarrying industry (11.4%), affected by the items natural gas and iron ore, and metallurgy (7.5%), due to the expansion of the production of carbon steel ingots and plates. Little influence was exerted by non-metallic minerals (4.7%) and, on the other hand, cellulose and paper (-1.4%) and food products and beverages were (-0.9%) the main negative impacts.

 

RIO DE JANEIRO

 

In December 2008, the seasonally adjusted index of industrial production in Rio de Janeiro decreased 8.2% compared to the previous month. It was the third consecutive negative result, with accumulated decrease of 12.0%. Compared to December 2007, production also had a negative rate (-9.6%), the major decrease since December 1995 (-11.5%). As a consequence, the indicator accumulated in the year closed 2008 with increase of 1.5%, a result below the 2.5% accumulated until November. In terms of quarterly indexes, production in the period October-December 2008 was lower both compared to the same quarter in the previous year (-3.7)and to the immediately previous quarter (-4.4%), in the seasonally adjusted series.

 

Compared to December 2007, the industrial sector of Rio de Janeiro had decrease of 9.6%,  being the highlight the negative contribution of manufacturing industry (-13.5%), once the mining and quarrying sector remains on a growing trend (6.4%). In the former subsector, which has the third consecutive negative rate, nine of the twelve activities faced decrease in production, especially metallurgy (-46.2%) and automotive vehicles (-41.4%), both reflecting technical stops and the occurrence of closedowns.

 

In these activities, the highlights were the decreases of the items carbon-steel square bars, tin plates and carbon-steel bobbins in the former subsector, and automobiles, trucks and chassis for trucks and buses, in the latter. It is worth mentioning the decreases from pharmaceutical items (-23.7%), other chemical products (-14.9%) and rubber and plastic (-24.7%), mainly affected by the items: medicines, herbicides and tires. Among the subsectors with increase in production, the main impact was that of petroleum refining and alcohol (11.7%), affected by the increasing production of basic fuel oils and diesel.

 

In the quarterly analysis, with decrease of 3.7% in the period October-December, the industry of Rio de Janeiro interrupted four consecutive quarters with positive rates, showing clear decrease of rhythm compared to the result of the third quarter (5.3%); both comparisons refer to the same period in the previous year. The reduction of dynamism from the third to the fourth quarter reflects, above all, the behavior of manufacturing industry, which changed from 4.8% to decrease of 6.7%, once mining and quarrying industry, which had increase from 7.5% to 9.6%, showed better results between the two quarters.

 

 

Considering the indicator for the end of the year, industrial production in Rio de Janeiro ended 2008 with increase of 1.5%, below the figure of 2007 (2.1%). Mining and quarrying industry (5.3%), due to the good performance of petroleum extraction, featured as a positive and relevant contribution to the overall average. In manufacturing industry (0.6%), which had a lower rhythm of expansion, five of the twelve subsectors surveyed had positive rates, and the main contribution to the formation of the overall index came from automotive vehicles (15.8%), followed by editing and printing (5.8%) and other chemical products (4.4%). In these subsectors, the highlights were the increases in the items: trucks and automobiles; newspapers and CDs; and herbicides, respectively. Among the subsectors with decrease of production, the highlights, in this comparison, are: metallurgy, with decrease of 5.3%, and pharmaceutical items (-9.1%), mainly affected by the decreases observed in tin plates and carbon-steel square bars; and medicines, respectively.

 

With the negative performance of industrial production in the state in the last three months, the quarterly moving average index kept its negative rate (-4.1%) and accelerates the rhythm of decrease in relation to the last two months. Also in the seasonally adjusted series, in the quarter versus immediately previous quarter, there was decrease (-4.4%) in the period October-December, after increase of 2.0% in the third quarter of the year.

 

SÃO PAULO

 

In December, the industrial production of São Paulo fell by 14.9% compared to the previous year, in the series with seasonal adjustment. It was the third consecutive negative result, with accumulated decrease of 18.5%. As a consequence, the quarterly moving average index, on a downward trend since September, faced significant reduction between the quarters which ended in December and November (-6.3%) and has accumulated 8.3% in the last four months.

 

In relation to the indicators which compare equivalent periods as in 2007, the results were: 14.5% compared to December 2007, the lowest rate since March 1996 (-16.6%), and 5.3% for the index accumulated in the year, above the national average (3.1%), but below that of the end of 2007 (6.2%). Considering quarterly indicators, the decrease was 8.0% compared to the immediately previous quarter, seasonally adjusted series, and 4.3% in relation to the fourth quarter of 2007.

 

In the monthly index (-14.5%), there was predominance of negative results, which reached sixteen of the twenty activities surveyed, especially automotive vehicles (-44.2%), office, computer and communication material and equipment (-60.5%) and machinery and equipment (-27.7%). In the first one, which had the second negative rate after nine months with increase, the occurrence of shutdowns in several companies contributed to the decrease of production of cars, whereas in the other two subsectors, the highlights were the decreases in equipment for mobile telephony and machining centers, respectively. On the other hand, among the subsectors which had increase in production, the main impact came from other transportation equipment (135.1%), especially due to the production of planes, followed by pharmaceutical industry (12.1%) and food products (3.7%), the highlights of which were production of medicines and crystallized sugar, respectively.

 

 

In the analysis by quarter, it is possible to observe that the industry of São Paulo, after twenty quarters with increase, was reduced by 4.3% in the last quarter of 2008, compared to the same period in the previous year. Between the third (7.1%) the fourth quarters (-4.3%) of 2008, seventeen subsectors faced decrease of production, especially automotive vehicles, which changed from 15.5% to -13.7%, machinery and equipment, from 9.3% to -8.3%, and office, computer and communication material and equipment (from 3.6% to -23.0%). In the seasonally adjusted quarter/immediately previous quarter comparison, the index for the period October-December was -0.8%, after a sequence of twelve positive results, with accumulated increase of 18.4% in the last three years.

 

PARANÁ

 

In December 2008, the seasonally adjusted industrial production index of Paraná fell by 11.3% compared to November, the second consecutive negative rate, with accumulated decrease of 14.0% in the period. As a result, the quarterly moving average index decreased 4.6% from November to December, after changing by 0.3% in the previous year.

 

Compared to December 2007, there was decrease of -6.7%, the first negative rate since September 2006 (-7.9%). The indicator accumulated in the year closed 2008 with 8.6% of increase. Considering the quarterly indicators, production in the period October-December had increase of 1.0% in relation to the same quarter in the previous year ad decrease of 4.8% compared to the immediately previous quarter (seasonally adjusted series).

 

In terms of the quarterly index, industrial production in Paraná fell by 6.7%, with negative performances in nine of the fourteen activities surveyed. Automotive vehicles (-46.1%), machinery and equipment (-22.3%) and other chemical products (-34.7%) were the main negative impacts over the overall average, being affected, mainly, by the reduced production use of cars and trucks; harvesting machines; and manure and fertilizers. On the other hand, the most significant positive contributions came from editing and printing (84.1%) and non-metallic minerals (33.1%), as a consequence, mainly of the increases of didactic books, brochures and printed material; and cement.

 

On a quarterly basis, it has been possible to observe the continuation of positive results for nine consecutive quarters, but with significant reduction of rhythm between the third (11.3%) and the fourth (1.0%) quarters of 2008, compared to the same period in the previous year. Eleven subsectors have kept this behavior between the two periods, being the highlight automotive vehicles (from 36.1% to -3.4%), editing and printing (from 50.8% to 18.3%) and machinery and equipment (from 5.7% to -4.5%).

 

In terms of the indicator accumulated in the year (8.6%), nine subsectors had positive rates, and the main contributions came from automotive vehicles (23.8%), editing and printing (32.3%) and cellulose and paper (16.7%), influenced, mainly, by the production of trucks; didactic books, brochures and printed material; and cardboard paper, respectively. On the contrary, the most relevant negative contributions came from other chemical products (-21.8%) and food products (-2.8%), being the highlight the decreases of manure and fertilizers and crystallized sugar.

 

 

SANTA CATARINA

 

In December 2008, the seasonally adjusted industrial production index of Santa Catarina decreased 7.5% compared to November, accumulating, in the last three months with falling results, decrease of 14.6%. In comparison with December 2008, there was decrease of 10.8%, the third consecutive negative rate and the biggest reduction since the 13.5% of April 2003.As a consequence, the indicator accumulated in the year closed the year at 0.7%, inverting the positive results which had been observed in this kind of comparison until November. The quarterly indicators of production in the period October-December 2008 were negative, both compared to the same period in the previous year and to the immediately previous quarter (-8.2%).

 

In relation to December 2007, the industrial sector of Santa Catarina decreased 10.8%, with overall reduction of rates reaching tem of the eleven activities surveyed. In this comparison, the most significant negative impacts were those of machinery and equipment (-21.5%), mainly due to the occurrence of shutdowns in an important company of the sector, and automotive vehicles (-29.2%). In these subsectors, the items which exerted the main negative contributions were, respectively, compressors for refrigerators and freezers; and trunks for trucks and buses. Other relevant negative contributions came from electric machines, appliances and material (-25.0%), rubber and plastic (-11.1%), non-metallic minerals (-14.2%) and textiles (-7.6%), mainly influenced by the items: electric engines; plastic pieces and accessories for automobile industry; ceramic tiles; and towels. On the contrary, the subsector of food products (4.1%) was the only activity with a positive result, due to the items poultrty and pork meat.

 

In the analysis by quarter, the industrial activity of Santa Catarina decreased 7.5% in the fourth quarter of 2008 compared to the same period in the previous year, and interrupted a sequence of nine semesters with positive rates. The decrease of dynamism, from the third (2.4%) to the fourth quarter was observed in ten of the eleven subsectors surveyed, being the highlight the reduction observed in automotive vehicles, which changed from 8.4% in the third quarter to -16.2%, in the period October-December, machinery and equipment (from -2.7% to -16.7%) and rubber and plastic (from 17.3% to -7.4%).

 

 

Considering the indicator accumulated in the year, the industry of Santa Catarina closed 2008 with decrease of 0.7%, a performance significantly below that observed in the end of 2007 (5.4%). In this result, four of the twelve subsectors surveyed had negative rates, with the main contributions to the overall indexes coming from wood (-26.0%) and machinery and equipment (-7.0%). In these activities, the most important items in terms of negative rates were sawed wood, in the former subsector, and compressors and refrigerators, in the second.

On the contrary, the most significant positive contribution came from rubber and plastic (7.2%), as a result of the growing production of plastic hoses, pipes and tubes and of plastic pieces and accessories for automobile industry, followed by automotive vehicles (4.0%), due to the item trunks for trucks  and buses, and food products (1.4%), due to the increasing production of poultry and pork meat.

 

As a consequence of the negative behavior of industrial activity since October, the quarterly moving average index of December (-5.1%) remained on a downward and accelerated decrease compared to the previous month (-2.4%). The seasonally adjusted index of quarter versus immediately previous quarter faced decrease in the fourth quarter of 2008 (-8.2%), inverting the positive rate observed since the previous quarter (1.2%).

 

 

 

RIO GRANDE DO SUL

 

The seasonally adjusted industrial production of Rio Grande do Sul fell by 10.0% in December, in relation to the immediately previous month, the third consecutive negative result, having accumulated decrease of 21.5% in this period. Compared to December 2007, there was decrease of 15.5%, the biggest decrease since the 19.6% of March 1996. As a consequence, the indicator accumulated close year 2008 with increase of 2.5%, an index below the figure registered until November (4.0%). In terms of quarterly indexes, there were negative results compared to both the same quarter in the previous year (-7.2%) and the immediately previous quarter (-10.3%) – seasonally adjusted series.

 

Compared to the same month in the previous year, the industry of Rio Grande do Sul fell by 15.5%, reflecting, above all, the decreases in nine of the fourteen subsectors surveyed, with the main negative impacts coming from other chemical products (-50.9%) and automotive vehicles (-33.0%). In these activities, it is possible to observe an overall profile of decrease, which reaches above 80% of the products investigated, being the highlights ethylene and propylene, in the former subsector, and automobiles and axis-semi-axis and other transmission pieces, in the latter. It is also worth mentioning the negative results of metallurgy (-67.3%), which can be seen as a consequence of the decrease of all the items in this subsector, footwear and leather articles (-21.8%), due to the item leather footwear, and machinery and equipment (-16.0%), being the highlight hydraulic tools and air-conditioning appliances. The most significant positive contribution to the overall average was food products (3.5%), mainly due to the increase of beef production.

 

On a quarterly basis, industry in the state decreased 7.2% in the last quarter of the year, after having positive rates for eight consecutive quarters (all compared to the same period in the previous year. The loss if dynamism from the third (7.5%) to the fourth (-7.2%) quarter of 2008 reflects, above all, the negative performance of thirteen of the fourteen subsectors surveyed, mainly automotive vehicles, which changed from increase of 27.9% to decrease of  12.6%; other chemical products (from 5.7% to –21.3%) and machinery and equipment (from  31.4% to 7.4%).

 

Considering the indicator for closing the year, the industrial production of Rio Grande Sul ends 2008 with increase of 2.5%over the same period in the previous year, showing lower increase than the amount reached in the previous (7.4%). To reach this result, nine of the fourteen areas surveyed had positive rates, and the main contributions came from machinery and equipment (22.1%), food products (7.8%) and automotive vehicles (13.0%). In these subsectors, the increases of harvesting machines, tractors and air-conditioning appliances in the first, beef in the second, and tow cars and trunks for buses and trucks in the third one were the highlights. On the other hand, footwear and leather articles (-7.7%) and other chemical products (-7.1%) were the main negative contributions, affected by the decreases in the production of leather footwear; ethylene and manure and fertilizers, respectively.

 

With the low dynamism of industrial production in Rio Grande do Sul in the last three months, the quarterly moving average index has remained on a downward trend since October, and has accelerated the rhythm of decrease in December (-7.6%) compared to the result in the previous month  (-2.8%). In the index quarter versus immediately previous quarter, in the seasonally adjusted series, there was decrease of 10.3% in the period October-December, opposite to the 3.0% expansion observed in the third quarter of the year.

 

GOIÁS

 

In December, the seasonally adjusted industrial production of Goiás, changed by 0.4% in relation to November, after having decreased 4.1% in the immediately previous month. The quarterly moving average index, between November and December, remained on a downward trend (-0.4%), the fourth consecutive negative rate, having accumulated decrease of 5.5%.

 

In terms of the remaining indicators, the results were increase of 1.1% compared to December 2007 and 8.5% accumulated in the year; this figure was significantly above the 2.3% of the end of 2007. In the analysis by quarter, there was increase of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2008 compared to the same period in the previous year, whereas in relation to the immediately previous quarter, in the series without seasonal influences, there was decrease of 3.9%.

 

The industrial activity of Goiás increased 1.1% in terms of the monthly indicator, after decreasing 1.4% in November. Three of the five subsectors surveyed contributed positively to this result, mainly non-metallic minerals (15.5%), metallurgy (7.4%) and food products and beverages (0.8%), with the highlights being, respectively, cement production; iron-niobium, and “pellets” of the extraction of soybean oil. On the other hand, chemical products (-8.3%) and mining and quarrying industry (-0.5%) reduced their production, mainly due to the decrease of the items: manure and fertilizers and asbestos.

 

On a quarterly basis, the industry maintains a sequence of six positive results, but with significant reduction of the rhythm of increase from the third quarter of 2008 (9.3%) to the fourth one (1.4%), being both comparisons versus the same period in the previous year. This movement was observed in four subsectors, especially in chemical products, which changed from 17.8% in July-September, to -14.8%, in October-December, and food products and beverages, from 8.6% to 4.9%.

 

Considering the indicator accumulated in the year, the increase was 8.5%, with four subsectors presenting positive rates in this comparison. Food products and beverages (9.8%) and mining and quarrying industry (13.3%) accounted for the main contributions to the overall result, mainly due to the increase of the production of mayonnaise, powdered milk, and asbestos. On the other hand, only metallurgy closed the year with a negative result (-6.5%), mainly due to the reduced production of iron-nickel.