The prospect for 2009 is a total harvest of legumes, cereal and oilseeds 5.9% lower than in 2008, although the planted area is expected to increase 0.8%. Considering data from last December, the result in 2008 was a national production of de 145.8 million metric tons of cereals, legumes and oilseeds, 9.5% more than in 2007, whereas the harvested area (47.2 million hectares) increased 4.1% in the period.

In December, the third estimate for the 2009 harvest was 137.3 million metric tons of cereal, legumes and oilseeds, that is, 5.9% less than in 2008; the plated area is expected to be  47.6 million hectares, 0.8% above the output in 2008 (47.2 million hectares).

The data in the third estimate comprise 77.3% of field observation and 22.7% of projections. The figures relative to the Southeast, South and Central West Regions and to the states of Rondônia, Maranhão, Piauí and Bahia were added to the projections based on data of previous years for the Federative Units which, due to the agricultural calendar, do not have their first estimates yet.

Among the products investigated, six had increase in relation to the area harvested in 2008: rice in husk (0.8%), onions (2.2%), 1^st harvest beans (grain) (14,6%), tobacco in leaf (2.5%), cassava (0.3%) and soybeans (grain)(0.4%). With negative change were: herbaceous cotton (seed) (13.6%), 1st harvest peanuts in husk (3.0%), 1^st harvest potatoes (6.9%), coffee (grain) (2.6%) and 1^st harvest corn (grain) (1.0%).

Increase is expected in the production of rice in husk (0.5%), onions (3.9%), 1^st harvest beans (grain)  (13.9%) and cassava (0.7%). With negative change were: herbaceous cotton (seed) (15.1%), 1st harvest peanuts (grain) (7.0%), 1st harvest potatoes (9.8%), coffee (grain) (16.2%), tobacco in leaf (4.3%), 1^st harvest corn (grain) (11.9%) and soybeans (grain) (1.9%).

The third production estimate of cotton (seed) is 3.4 million metric tons, versus 4.0 million metric tons harvested in 2008 (-15.1%). As observed in previous reports, the decrease of production occurred, mainly, due to the reduction of planted area, as a consequence of the high production costs, funding difficulties and of the low price of fiber. All the Federative Units faced decline in harvesting, and Mato Grosso, the main producer (with 48.9% of the national output), reduced by 20.9% the area to be harvested and by 20.4%the expected production.

For the 2009 harvest, the expected rice production is 12.2 million tons, 0.5% above the amount obtained in 2008. This increase is mainly due to the participation of Rio Grande do Sul, the main producer, with increment of 2.7% in the expected production and 2.6% in the area. Mato Grosso, the main state producing rice in the Central West Region, presents increase in area of 1.4%. This fact is a consequence of the good prices of this product and to recently-observed export opportunities. Besides, rice has a production cost below that of soybeans, and also varieties adapted to rainfed farming and availability of favorable weather conditions. In Santa Catarina there were decreases of 1.7%, with excessive rain (with floods and landslides) in the micro-regions of Joinville, Blumenau, Itajaí and Jaraguá do Sul. These data may be revised in coming surveys.

For the national production of 1st harvest beans, the surveys conducted in December point to production of 1.8 million tons, surpassing by 13.9% that reached in 2008 (1.6 million metric tons). Compared to the previous estimate, this one fell by 6.9% and new data of the three southern states indicate that the dry period in the Central West and the excessive rain in the shore led to this decrease.

In relation to 1st harvest corn, the expected production is 35.2 million metric tons, 11.9% below the amount produced in 2008, due to the reduction of total planted area (3.2%), and also to the lower yield prospect (11.0%), which changed from 4,244 kg/ha to 3,779 kg/ha. Similarly to what happened to beans, the dry period caused damage to the main producing centers. The high production costs, the low prices of the produce and the existing stocks also led to a smaller planted area.

The third estimate of soybeans increases the tendency to fall of the product. For 2009, the expected production of 58.8 million metric tons will fall by 1.9% in relation to 2008. The area to be harvested (21.4 million hectares) is expected to increase 0.4%, whereas yield (2,753 kg/ha) will fall by 2.3%. Compared to the previous prospect, there was reduction by 1.7% in production, due to losses in Paraná (-7.5%), Santa Catarina (-3.0%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (-3.7%).

For grains in general, in the South Region, climactic conditions, with the lack of rain, caused decrease of the expected production. The lower use of fertilizers had contributed to this decrease.

The first prospect of IBGE for the national harvest of coffee is 2,353,448 t or 39.2 million 60 kg-sacks. The total area used for the crop will be 2,383,846 ha and the harvested area, 2,64,43 ha.

In this estimate, the two types (Arabic and Robusta) are considered as one. Espírito Santo, the second major producer of coffee in the country, has about 70% of Robusta coffee and only 30% of Arabic coffee. In Minas Gerais, the major producer, almost 100% of the coffee is of the Arabic type.

In 2008 Brazil harvested 2,809,379 t or 46.8 million 60 kg-sacks. For 2009, decrease of 16.2% in production is expected, but the current estimates can still change significantly in coming surveys. In relation to the harvest obtained in 2008, the total area decreased 1.6%, the area to be harvested has decreased by 2.6% and the main indicator of “low productivity” in the year had fallen by 14%. Coffee alternates periods of high and low productivity, a characteristic of the Coffea arabica species, the predominant one in the country. Conilon coffee, which belongs to the Coffea canephora species, expresses with lower intensity the biennial character, due to its roughness. In the same group are genetic material commonly known in Brazil as Robusta, Robustão, Vitória and others.

The surveys which occurred in the last quarter of 2008 certainly contributed to the occurrence of three flowerings in most of the coffee producing areas in the Southeast and in the South (Paraná). However, with the great delay observed in harvesting in 2008 (due to problems with the dry period in 2007), an unusual fact occurred in the coffee crops: on the same coffee shrub, the new flowering shared space with late fruits of 2008.  It is not yet possible to say if this occurrence has caused damage to the plants.

In 2008, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds reached 145.8 million metric tons

The twelfth estimate for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds points to production of about 145.8 million metric tons, 9.5% above the amount obtained in 2007 (133.1 million metric tons)^. This volume surpasses by only 144.012 t the amount estimated in November. The increment observed was mainly due to reevaluations of winter crops, especially wheat. The area to be harvested (47.2 million hectares) increased by 4.1% compared to 2007. The crops investigated which used the biggest areas in 2008 were soybeans, with 21.3 million hectares, corn, with 14.4 million hectares and rice, with 2.9 million hectares. The harvests of these products, together, represent 89.7% of the estimated national grain production.

By area, the estimated production of cereal, legumes and oilseeds is distributed as follows: South Region, 61.3 million metric tons; Central West, 50.7 million metric; Southeast, 17.5 million metric tons; Northeast, 12.5 million metric tons and North, 3.8 million metric tons.

Among the 25 products selected, 19 had increase in their production estimate compared to 2007: 1st harvest peanuts in husk (38.8%), rice in husk (9.7%), oats in grain (12.5%), 1st harvest potatoes (0.2%), 2nd harvest potatoes (24.1%), 3rd harvest potatoes (5.6%), cacao nuts (5.8%), coffee (grain) (25.0%), sugarcane (19.2%), 2nd harvest beans (grain) (29.6%), 3rd harvest beans (grain) (5.1%), oranges (0.9 %), castor beans in segment (34.5%), 1^st harvest beans (grain) (10,7%), 2^nd harvest beans (grain) (19.3%), soybeans (grain)(3.4%), sorghum (grain) (40.0%), wheat (grain) (47.1%) and triticale (grain)  (1.6%). With negative change were: herbaceous cotton (seed) (2.4%), 2nd harvest peanuts (grain) (5.2%), onions (1.3%), barley (grain) (0.4%), 1^st harvest beans (grain) (9.9%) and cassava (1.3%).

In relation to the products belonging to the summer harvest, it is worth mentioning that rice, corn and soybeans, the main crops accounting for approximately 90% of the national grain production, had very good performances, with increments of 9.7%, 13.3% and 3.4%, respectively. It is also worth mentioning that the prices had a good level until the middle of the year, but from the second semester on, there were decreases, especially due to the world crisis.

In terms of coffee, December marked the end of the 2008 harvest. Compared to 2007, the highlight was Minas Gerais, the major national producer, with rise of 43.5% in production. The figures for Espírito Santo, the second major national producer, had slight increase of 0.1%, despite the dry period observed in 2007. The effects of the lack of rain were only minimized by the process of irrigation, which is commonly applied in the area.

For Arabic coffee, which is harvested in the south of the state, there was no record of damages. On the contrary, 2008 was considered for coffee producers themselves, na excellent year for this type of coffee. Other states, major coffee producers, ended the harvest confirming production increases, for example: São Paulo (18.2%), Rondônia (27.0%), Bahia (12,6%) and Paraná (49.9%).In terms of the harvested area, the changes in relation to 2007 were: Minas Gerais (+0.3%), Espírito Santo (-4.1%), Bahia (+3.0%), São Paulo (-9.3%), Rondônia (-1.3%) and Paraná (-0.5%). The total production in the country rose 25.0% compared to 2007. The average national yield rose 27.2%, which evidences the biennial character of coffee. Harvested area reached the end of the harvest with decrease of 1.8% in relation to 2007.

With the reevaluation of estimates, the Brazilian production of sugarcane in 2008 was 653,181,799 metric tons, which represented increase of 19.2% in relation to 2007, and 0.3% in relation to the result in the previous month. The increase of planted area by 12.5%, a consequence of the new projects which are being implemented in the country to supply the demand for alcohol, was the main responsible for the increase of production. Also, productivity has increased in the last few years, with the introduction of new varieties and new technologies.

In the last survey of 2008, São Paulo, which accounted for 59.3% of the Brazilian production (387.5 million tons), had increase of 18.3% compared to 2007, but unchanged compared to the previous month. The state is expected to provide a big amount of sugarcane for alcohol production, with the objective of supplying the demand for fuel of other countries and of the internal market itself.