In November, the 11th estimate of the national harvest of grains 1 for 2008, based on the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), shows a production ...

In November, the 11th estimate of the national harvest of grains ¹  for 2008, based on the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), shows a production of 145.7 million metric tons ² , 9.4% above the one obtained in 2007 (133.1 million metric tons). This volume is only 86,611 metric tons bigger than the value expected in October.  The low increase of 0.1% occurs mainly, as a consequence of re-evaluations of the winter crops, especially wheat.  Regarding the area of grains to be harvested, the increase expected is 4.1% compared to 2007, summing 47.2 million hectares.   The crops surveyed which occupy the biggest areas in 2008 were soybeans (21.3 million hectares), corn (14.4 million hectares) and rice (2.9 million hectares).  These three products account for 89.7% of the estimated national production of grains.

IBGE also conducted in November the second prediction of area and production for the 2009 harvest, in the Southeast, South and Central West Regions and in the states of Rondônia, Maranhão, Piauí and Bahia ³ .  The production of grains in 2009 is estimated in 140.2 million tons, 3.8% lower than in 2008.

 
In the comparison between the projections of November and October for the harvest of grains of this year stood out the increases in the estimates of production of the following products: oats (3.3%), barley (2.7%) and wheat in grain (1.5%).

The two first ones (oats and barley) are a consequence of re-evaluations in the data from Rio Grande do Sul, where, due to favorable climatic conditions, there was adjustment in the average yield of both products (5.8% and 5.0%, respectively, reaching 2,160 kg/ha and 2,400 kg/ha).  Regarding wheat, the two main producing states changed their data: Paraná readjusted it by 1.6%; and Rio Grande do Sul, by 1.4%.

In absolute terms, the estimate of production of grains is distributed in the following way by the Major Regions: South, 61.2 million metric tons (42.0%); Central West, 50.7 million metric tons (34.8%); Southeast, 17.5 million metric tons (12.1%); Northeast, 12.4 million metric tons (8.5%); and North, 3.8 million metric tons (2.6%).

Estimates of November of 2008 in relation to the 2007 harvest

Among 25 products selected by LSPA, 18 record positive change in the estimate of production for 2008, in relation to the previous year: peanuts in husk 1st harvest (38.8%), rice in husk (9.7%), oats (19.0%), potatoes 1st harvest (0.2%), potatoes 2nd  harvest (24.1%), potatoes 3rd harvest (5.6%), cacao beans (3.2%), coffee (24.3%), sugar cane (18.9%), beans 2nd harvest (32.1%), beans 3rd harvest (5.2%), oranges (0.4%), castor beans (segment) (40.0%), corn 1st harvest (10.6%), corn 2nd harvest (19.3%), soybeans (3.4%), sorghum (39.9%) and wheat (43.4%).

With negative changes, are herbaceous seed cotton (-2.4%), peanuts in husk 2nd harvest (-5.9%), onions (-1.3%), barley (-1.0%), beans 1st harvest (-8.8%), cassava (-1.1%) and triticale (-10.4%).  It is worth mentioning that for Santa Catarina, the data are not conclusive as a consequence of the heavy rainfall in the state.

Results of the 2nd prediction for the 2009 grain harvest

The production of grains of 2009 is estimated in 140.2 million metric tons, 3.8% lower than the one obtained in 2008.  The initial evaluation of the area of grains to be harvested was 47.6 million hectares, 0.9% higher than the 2008 harvest (47.2 million hectares).

The main producing states of grains present until now, a normal weather condition and confirm the trend of implementation of a harvest with an area slightly bigger than the one of this year, but with a lower production due to the expected average yields, as a consequence of the prices of inputs, especially fertilizers, in a situation of uncertainty in relation to the future conditions of commercialization (price and market).  On the other hand, the first re-evaluations due to bad climate conditions are being recorded, mainly in Santa Catarina.

Among the ten predicted products, five must have positive changes in relation to the harvested areas in 2008: rice in husk (0.4%), onions (2.0%), beans 1st harvest (14.1%), tobacco in leaves (2.6%) and soybeans (0.3%).  With negative changes, are herbaceous seed cotton (-13.3%), peanuts in husk 1st harvest (-2.9%), potatoes 1st harvest (-2.0%), cassava (-0.8%) and corn 1st harvest (-0.5%).

In relation to the expected productions, the following products have positive changes: rice in husk (0.8%), onions (7.4%), beans 1st harvest (20.9%), tobacco leaves (4.4%) and cassava, with absolute change of 756 metric tons.  With negative changes, are  seed cotton (herbaceous) (-14.9%), peanuts in husk 1st harvest (-6.7%), potatoes 1st harvest (-2.3%), corn 1st harvest (-7.4%) and soybeans (-0.2%).

SEED COTTON – The second prediction of production of seed cotton is 3.6 million metric tons, compared to 4.0 million metric tons obtained in 2008, showing a decrease of 14.9%.  This result occurred mainly due to the diminishment of the area harvested, as a consequence of the discouragement of producers, due to the high costs of production, difficulties of financing conditions and low product quotation.  All the Federative Units registered decrease in the harvest, and Mato Grosso, the main producer (48.8%), reduced in 20.9% the area to be harvested and in 20.4% the production expected.

RICE IN HUSK - The production expected of rice for 2009 is 12.2 million metric tons, 0.8% above the one obtained in 2008.  This gain occurred due, especially, to Rio Grande do Sul, main producer, which shows an increment of 3.0% in the production expected and 1.6% in the area.  Mato Grosso, main state producer of rice in the Central West, also presents an increment of 1.4% in the area.  This fact was a consequence of the current good conditions of the product and export opportunities recently verified.  It is worth mentioning that in Santa Catarina, in the microregions of Joinville, Blumenau, Itajaí and Tijucas, a reduction in the average yield, as a consequence of the heavy rainfall in the state is already being recorded.

BEANS 1ST HARVEST - The second prediction for the national harvest of beans 1st harvest in 2009 shows an expected production of 2.0 million metric tons, surpassing in 20.9% the result of 2008.  Currently, the climatic conditions are good, and the prices are considerably higher than the ones recorded in the end of 2006, and beginning of 2007.

CORN 1ST HARVEST -  For corn 1st harvest, a production of 37.0 million metric tons is expected, 7.4% lower than the one of 2008, due to the decrease in the total area planted (-2.8%) and the lower expectation of income, changing from 3,961 kg/ha to  3.946 kg/ha.  As it was observed in the first prediction, the unfavorable numbers for this harvest are a consequence of the high costs of production and the low product quotation.

SOYBEANS - The second prediction of soybeans almost maintains the previous scenario:  the production expected (59.8 million metric tons) recorded an insignificant negative change of 0.2% in comparison to 2008.  The area to be harvested (21.3 million hectares) registers an increase of 0.3%, while the income expected presents a decrease of 0.5% (2,803 kg/ha).

Soybeans, corn, rice and wheat had the major stocks in June 30, 2008

The major stocks registered in June 30, 2008 were soybeans (22,599,405 metric tons), corn (8,217,848 metric tons), rice in husk (4,623,877 metric tons) and wheat (1,823,546 metric tons).  When these results were compared to the ones existing in June 30, 2007, the annual stocks of rice in husk and soybeans had positive changes of 11.7% and 3.7%, respectively, while wheat and corn recorded increases of 1.2% and 6.1%, respectively.

The results of the Survey of Stocks of the first semester of 2008 show that the storage system of agricultural products in the country decreased by 0.2% in the number of active establishments, comparatively to the second semester of 2007.  In the end of the first semester of 2008, there were 8,980 active establishments, 42.5% were in the South Region, 23.1% in the Southeast Region, 22.3% in the Central West Region, 8.6% in the Northeast Region and 3.5% in the North Region.

Regarding the capacity of the storage units, it could be observed that the conventional, structural and inflatable warehouses summed 78,578,426 m³ , and, among this total, slightly more than 70.0% were concentrated in the Southeast and South Regions. 

The storage units of the type grain warehouse and bulk warehouses totaled 52,309,794 t of capacity, and the Central West Region had 49.9% of this total while the South had 34.3%.

The silos for grains had 43,290,835 metric tons of capacity, and 54.3% of this total was in the South Region, while the Central West and Southeast Regions concentrated 26.7% and 13.8%, respectively.
 

NOTES

¹ Cereals, legumes and oilseeds, which include the following products: cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, oats, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale.

²  The surveys for cereals, legumes and oilseeds now presented were conducted in partnership with the National Food Supply Company – Conab, department of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply- MAPA, continuing a process of harmonization of the official estimates of the harvest, initiated in October of 2007, for the main Brazilian crops.  

³  For the estimate of national production in 2009, the results collected in the regions and states where the survey was conducted were summed to the projections based on the information of the previous years for the Federative Units which, as a consequence of the agricultural calendar, do not have the first estimates.  The information of the survey of prediction represents 78.0% of the expected national production, while the projections answer for 22.0% of the total value.