IBGE conducted, in October, the first estimate of production and area for the 2009 harvest, in the Southeast, South and Central West Regions in the states of Rondônia, Maranhão, Piauí and Bahia. The production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds¹ for 2009 is estimated at 140.8 million metric tons, 3.3% less than in 2008. To estimate the national output in 2009, the figures of Regions and states where the survey has been conducted were added to the projections obtained from previous years for the Federation Units which, due to he agricultural calendar  do not have estimates yet. The survey estimate represents 77.3% of the expected national output, whereas projections, for 22.7% of the total. In this first estimate, climatic conditions are rather regular.  However, the current scenario may face changes considering the uncertainties generated by the international economic crisis which worsened due to restrictions to credit and significant rises in the prices of inputs, mainly of fertilizers, which can result in a harvest with reduced use of technology.

First estimate of 2009 harvest shows increase of 1.2% in area to be harvested

The initial evaluation of the area to be harvested in 2009, of cereals, legumes and oilseeds, is 47.8 million hectares, 1.2% above the area harvested in 2008, which was 47.2 million hectares. In absolute figures, this increment amounted to 600 thousand hectares. When only the ten products surveyed are concerned, the area is 39.6 million ha. Several out of these ten products recorded positive change in relation to 2008: paddy rice (0.2%), onion (2.2%), beans - 1st crop (13.0%), tobacco leaf (2.7%), cassava (0.5%) grain corn 1st crop (0.4%) and soybeans (0.6%). With negative change, upland seedcotton (-9.5%), peanuts in husk - 1st crop (5.0%), grain corn - 1st crop (-0.9%), potatoes - 1st crop (-2.0%).

With reference to the expected output, positve changes were recorded by: paddy rice (1.9%), onion (7.5%), beans - 1st crop (17.55), tobacco leaf (4.5%). With negative changes: upland seedcotton (-10.7%), peanuts in shell - 1st crop (-5.3%), potatoes - 1st crop (-2.6%), cassva (-0.1%), corn 1st crop (-6.0%) and soybeans (-0.2%).

SEEDCOTTON

The first estimate for the seedcotton output in 2009 is 3.6 million metric tons, versus 4.0 million metric tons obtained in 2008, pointing to decrease of 10.7%. This decline occurred mainly due to the decrease of planted area, as a result of the lack of incentive to producers in the planting of this product considering the high prices of inputs and the lower prices of cotton lint. All the Federation Units recorded decreases, but Mato Grosso, the main producer (with 51.9% of the national output) faced decreases of 11.8% in the area to be harvetsted and of 11.1% in the expected output.

PADDY RICE

In this first national evaluation for 2009, the expeccted output of rice is 12.3 million metric tons, 1.9% above that of 2008. This decrease occurred mainly due to Rio Grande do Sul, the main producer, which shows increment of 3.0% in the expected production and of 1.6% in the area. It is also relevant to mention that Mato Grosso, the main producer of this cereal in the Central West Region, reports decrease of planted area (2.8%), as a result of the preference of producers for soybean crops, which are more easily traded, as well as for the reduction of deforestation and the growing supervision by enviromental bodies.

BEANS (1st crop)

The first estimate for the national output of beans for 2009 points to 9.9 million metric tons, surpassing by 17.5% the figure reached in 2008, when a total 1.6 million metric tons were collected. This shows the expansion of 13.0% of the area to be harvested versus last year's figure, when this crop was jeopardized by climate problems and by prices, which, at the beginning of the crop, had not reached high levels as those now in the market.

GRAIN CORN (1st crop)

For 1st crop corn, the estimated output of 37.6 million metric tons is 6.0% smaller than the figure informed in 2008, due to the reduced total planted area (-1.8%) and the lower expected yield (-6.4%). The reasons for this result were the high production costs and the low prices of the product because of the volumes in stock resulting from the interruption of previous export negotiations.

SOYBEAN GRAIN

The initial estimate for spybeans, for 2009, of 59.8 million metric tons, points to an almost null negative change of 0.2%, in comparison with the figure reached in 2008. The area to be harvested records increase of 0.6%, whereas the expected yield, decrease of 0.8%, with figures of 21.4 million hectares and 2,794 kg/ha, respectively.

Grain production expected to be 9.4% bigger in 2009

In October, the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds points to output of about 145.6 million metric tons, 9.4% above the figure of 2007 (133.1 million metric tons). This volume is 319,075 t above the amount estimated in September. This increase (0.2%) resulted, mainly, from reevaluations of data of corn - 2nd crop - and of winter harvests, especially of wheat. In terms of the area to be harvested, there was increase of 4.2% over the figure in 2007, amounting to 47.2 million hectares. Among the investigated crops which used the biggest areas in 2008, it is worth mentioning soybeans (21.3 million hectares), corn (14.4 million hectares) and rice (2.9 million hectares). These three products represent 89.9% of the estimated national output of grains.

In absolute figures, by Region, the estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds is distributed as follows: South Region (61.1 milion metric tons); Central West (50.7 million metric tons); Southeast (17.5 million metric tons); Northeast (12.5 million metric tons) and North (3.8 million metric tons).

 Agricultural Output in 2008 - October estimate in relation to 2007 results

Among the twenty five products selected, the estimates of eighteen changed positively in comparison with the previous year: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (38.8%), paddy rice (9.2%), oat grain (15.2%), potatoes - 1st crop (0.2%), potatoes - 2nd crop (24.3%), potatoes - 3rd crop (4.7%), cacao nuts (3.2%), coffee grain (28.3%), sugarcane (17.4%) beans - 2nd crop (34.9%), beans - 3rd crop (5.1%), orange (0.3%), castor beans (38.8%), grain corn - 1st crop (10.6%), grain corn - 2nd crop (19.5%), soybean grain (3.4%), sorghum grain (39.9%) and wheat grain (41.3%). With negative change: upland seedcotton (2.3%), peanuts in shell - 2nd crop (5.9%), onion (1.3%), barley grain (3.7%), beans - 1st crop (8.7%), cassava (1.0%) and triticale grain (11.0%).

SUGARCANE – The expected output for the current month is 643.7 metric tons, 3.3% more than estimated in September, as a result of the increase of 2.7% in the area to be harvested. This positive change in the expected output, as shown in the figure below, results mainly from the new data of São Paulo, the main national producer.

CORN (2nd crop) – For corn, the increase of production (1.0%) results from the increment of 1.1% in the average yield, once the area to be harvested decreased by 0.1%. This change came as a contribution the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, which, after the revision of final harvesting data, promoted increase of 7.8% in productivity, with subsequent gain in production amounting to 3.0 million tons, 6.8% more than in September.

 WHEAT GRAIN – The estimate of this month is 5.8 million metric tons, with average yield of 2,435 kg/ha, in an area to be harvested of 2.4 million hectares. The estimate of this month is 5.8 million metric tons, with average yield of 2,435 kg/ha, in an area to be harvested of 2.4 million hectares. In relation to the prevous month, the current output has grown 2.7%, mainly due to the revison of average yield of this crop, with increment of 2.3%. All the Federation Units of the South Region, which accounted for 92.8% of the national of wheat, recorded positive changes. In a general way, the occurrence of rain, frosts and hail, did not damage the crops. The figure below shows the main producers of wheat in grain and the percentage of change in relation to the August estimate.

With the revision of estimates, the national output of sugarcane amounted to 643,652,312 metric tons, which represents increase of 17.4% in relation to 2007. The increase of area by 15.2%, as a consequence of the new projects which are being implemented in the country to supply the alcohol demand, is the main factor accounting for the increase of output. Besides, productivity has also growing in the last few years due to the introcution of new carieties and new technologies. 

With the restriction to credit, especially because of the financial scenario at international level, some plants of the sugar and alcohol industry are trying to revise their investments for the coming harvests. Besides tha, they have tried to obtain support measures from the government.

According to the lastest survey of São Paulo state, responsible for 60.2% of the Brazailian output (387.5 million metric tons), the state had an increment of 18.3% in the production in relation to 2007. São Paulo may direct a big amount of its sugarcane to the production of alcohol, with the intention of fulfilling a demand for this fuel in other countries and supply the domestic market, since the national fleet of biofuel cars has been growing every year.

In relation to coffee, the overall production of Brazil is expected to record increase of 28.3% in relation to 2007. The national average income is expected to increase by 28.3% in relation to 2007. The national average yield must rise 27.6%, which evidences the specific characteristics of coffee crops, and the harvested area or area to be harvested must reach the end of the harvesting period with increase (0.5%).  The highlight is Minas Gerais, the 1st national producer, with 45.0% of increase in the production of 2008, versus that of 2007. On the other hand, the figures of Espírito Santo show the consequences of the dry period of 2007, when there was decrease of 1.4% of the state's production. The decrease is believed to results from conillon coffee, explored in the north of the state, where the lack of rain could have caused serious damages, only prevented by irrgation initiatives in the region. Coffea arabica faced no damages in the State. The other main states which produce coffee still  record increases of output, such as São Paulo (59.6%), Rondônia (27.0%), Bahia (10.5%) and Paraná (49.9%). In relation to harvested area or area to be harvested, the changes over 2007 results are: Minas Gerais (+2.1%), Espírito Santo (-2.1%), Bahia (+3.2%), São Paulo (+1.1%), Rondônia (-1.3%) and Paraná (-0.5%).

Agricultural output 2008 – October versus September estimate 

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production of October highlights changes in the production estimates, versus September figures, for: sugarcane (3.3%), corn grain 2nd harvest (1.0%) and wheat grain (2.7%).

_________________________________________________________

¹ Seedcotton, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, oats, barley, rye, sunflower seeds, sorghum, wheat and triticale.