In August 2008, the industrial production decreased by 1.3% compared to July, in the series seasonally adjusted, reducing part of the growth accumulated in the two previous months (4.3%).  In relation to August 2007, the increase was 2.0%, completing a sequence of 26 months of positive results in this type of comparison.  With the performance of August, the indexes accumulated in the year of 2008 (6.0%) and in the last 12 months (6.5%) decelerated compared to the results of July (6.7% and 6.9%, respectively).  The quarterly moving average (trend index), however, maintained the rhythm of growth, changing from 1.1% to 1.0% between the quarters closed in July and August.

 The decrease of 1.3% recorded from July to August reached 15 among 27 segments surveyed.  The main negative result came from other chemical products (-5.5%), sector which had accumulated growth of 12.3% in the three previous months.  Also stood out food products (-3.1%), fourth consecutive reduction, with a loss accumulated of 6.2% in the period; and petroleum refining and alcohol production (-4.1%), influenced by a technical stoppage in one refining unit, which broke four months in a row of positive rates, in which it had accumulated growth of 12.2%.

 Among the ten industrial segments which increased the production, pharmaceuticals (4.9%), electronic material and communication equipment (3.9%) and automotive vehicles (1.0%) brought the most relevant positive results.
Also in the comparison with July, the indexes by category of use showed that the most pronounced decrease was registered by intermediate goods (-2.7%), the most significant since December 1997 (-2.8%).  This segment had four consecutive months of expansion and in this period it accumulated gain of 4.5%.  The sector of semi and non-durable consumer goods also brought a negative rate (-0.3%), after increasing by 2.7% from April to July of this year.  The production of capital goods (0.1%) was almost stable and accumulated 10.4% of growth in three months.  Durable consumer goods recorded growth of 2.1%, and compensated partly the decrease registered in July (-4.3%).

Even with the negative performance of the industrial activity in August, the quarterly moving average index (trend index) maintained the rhythm of growth in the quarters closed in July (1.1%) and August (1.0%).  This dynamism is clearly observed in capital goods (3.3%) and durable consumer goods (1.4%), which had acceleration compared to the result of July (1.3% and  0.2%, respectively), while intermediate goods (0.4%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (0.4%) decelerated the rhythm (1.5% and 0.9%, respectively).

In the comparison with the same month of the previous year, the result of industry (2.0%) was considerably below the one observed in recent months.  Besides the influence of a high base of comparison, August 2008 had two less working days than August 2007.  In this comparison, 12 among 27 activities brought positive rates while in July (8.8%) the increase had reached twice as much activities (24).  The reduction in the rhythm of growth also may be confirmed in the diffusion index, which after reaching 64% of the 755 surveyed products in July, decreased to 48% in August.

Among the activities, the main positive results came from automotive vehicles (9.9%), pharmaceuticals (16.3%) and mining and quarrying (8.6%), influenced by the increase in the production of automobiles and tractor-truck; medicines; and iron ores and petroleum.  On the other hand, among the 15 segments which brought decrease stood out the fall observed in food products (-7.4%).  This is a sector of major participation in the industrial production and was influenced by the decrease of 63% of the products surveyed standing out the items crystallized sugar and concentrated orange juices.

Also in the comparison August 08/ August 07, by categories of use, almost all the results were positive, with the exception of semi and non-durable consumer goods (-1.1%).  The segment of capital goods brought the highest rate (12.1%), supported in the increase in the production of the major part of the sub-sectors, especially capital goods for transportation (20.4%), for mixed use (12.1%), for industrial use (5.5%) and for agriculture use (25.3%).  The production of durable consumer goods (2.8%) was mainly influenced by the favorable performance of automobiles (10.4%), since the production of household appliances (-2.2%) and of mobile telephones (-11.4%) decreased.  In the case of household appliances, the main negative result came from the “brown line” ¹ (-7.9%), since the “white line” ² increased by 17.3%.

The production of intermediate goods increased by 1.5%, influenced, mainly, by the products associated to basic metallurgy (7.9%), mining and quarrying (8.6%) and non-metallic minerals (12.4%).  In these activities the main highlights were, respectively, the items carbon steel square bars; iron ores; and cement.  The group inputs for construction (9.4%) increased for the 20th consecutive month, while the group packaging decreased by 5.0%.

The production of semi and non-durable consumer goods (-1.1%) decreased mainly due to the influence of the sub-sector food products and elaborated beverages for household consumption (-3.4%), with the items orange juices and concentrates and beers bringing the main influences.  It is also worth mentioning the negative performance which came from the sub-sectors of semi-durable (-5.8%) and fuels (-2.5%), due to the decrease in the manufacturing of leather footwear and gasoline.  The only positive contribution came from the group other non-durable (3.9%), influenced by medicines.

The growth of the industrial production accumulated from January to August (6.0%) was a consequence  of the positive changes of 21 among 27 activities, led by automotive vehicles (17.2%), supported by automobiles, trucks and pieces and followed by machines and equipment (9.2%), where stood out equipment elevators/ merchandise transporters and harvesting machines – items typically associated to the segments of durable consumer goods (11.8%) and capital goods (18.1%).  These are the sectors which are leading the industrial expansion, while intermediate goods (5.0%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (1.7%) are growing below the industrial average.

Notes

1 - Television sets, sound equipment and DVDs.

2 - Refrigerators and freezers; stoves; washing and drying machines.