Expected harvest (145.1 million metric tons) is 9.0% above the figure in 2007 and 1.0% above the rate expected for June, keeping, this way, the estimate of a record output. The expected planted area (47.3 million hectares) is 4.3% bigger than that of last year.  

The seventh estimate for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds points to output of 145.1 million metric tons, 9.0% above the figure obtained in 2007 (133.1 million metric tons). This amount is 1.0% above the figure estimated in June (143.6 million tons), mainly due to readjustments of summer crops at the end of the harvesting period, to the reevaluations of sorghum, corn and 2nd-harvest beans, and also to increases of the planting of 3rd harvest beans and of winter crops, such as wheat, as a result of the good prices of these items.

The estimated planted area in 2008 (47.3 million hectares) is 4.3% higher than in 2007. The crops surveyed which take up the biggest areas are soybeans (21.3 million hectares), corn (14.4 million hectares) and rice (2.9 million hectares). The sum of harvests of these three products represents 90.0% of the national production of grains estimated for this year.

The graph below shows the evolution of grain production and of the occupation of Brazilian agricultural land planted with these items, from 1980 to 2008. In the period, production increased most significantly than the area planted with these crops, evidencing the technological advances which determined increases in the average yield of crops. A new record harvest is still expected for 2008.

In absolute and regional terms, the estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds is distributed as follows: South Region (60.6 million metric tons); Central West Region (50.5 million metric tons); Southeast Region (17.5 million metric tons); Northeast Region (12.7 million metric tons) and North Region (3.7 million metric tons).

Agricultural production in 2008 – July estimate compared to the 2007 harvest

Among the 25 products analyzed, 19 had increases in the estimated production comapred to the previous year: 1st harvest peanuts

(29.9%), 2nd harvest peanuts (0.8%), rice in husk (9.6%), oats in grain  (14.8%), 1st harvest potatoes (0.3%), 2nd harvest potatoes (20.0%), 3rd harvest potatoes (3.5%), cacao nuts (7.4%), coffee in grain (27.7%), sugarcane (14.2%), barley in grain (1.1%), 2nd harvest beans in grain (40.6%), oranges (0.4%), castor beans in segment (63.6%), 1st harvest corn in grain (10.9%), 2nd harvest corn in grain (17.3%), soybeans in grain (3.6%), sorghum in grain (31.5%) and wheat in grain (32.5%).  With negative change were: herbaceous seed cotton (2.6%), onions (2.1%), 1st beans in grain (7.8%), 3rd harvest beans in grain (1.8%), cassava (3.2%) and triticale in grain (2.8%).

The highlights are the percent changes compared to the previous year of castor beans, 2nd harvest beans, wheat, sorghum, 1st harvest peanuts and coffee. In absolute terms, the highlights are 1^st and 2^nd harvest corn, soybeans, wheat and rice. Sugarcane, with a great volume of production as well, had increase of 14.2%, compared to 2007.

For coffee, the main producing Federative Units had increase of the average yield in relation to 2007: Minas Gerais (38.8%), Espírito Santo (2.9%), São Paulo (57.8%), Rondônia (25.9%), Bahia (12.5%) and  Paraná (45.3%). In terms of the area planted or to be planted, the changes in relation to 2007 were: Minas (+2.5%), Espírito Santo (-2.1%), São Paulo (+1.1%), Rondônia (-1.2%), Bahia (+2.1%) and  Paraná (-0.1%).  The area harvested or to be harvested is expected to increase by 0.7%, and the national average yield is expected to increase 26.7%, due to the high season coffee, as shown in the graph below:

The harvested amount of oranges is expected to be 18,580,697 t (455.4 million boxes of 40.8 kg), that is, 0.4% more than in 2007. The total area changed by 1.4%, and the area directed to planting, by 2.5%. The Federative Units which account for the increase are: Bahia (8.2%), Sergipe (2.1%), Minas (2.3%) and Paraná (0.3%).

Some changes in the scenario of orange planting in the country presented in the July estimate are have occurred due to the results in São Paulo, the main producer in the country, which accounts for over 80% of the Brazilian production of this fruit. The production of São Paulo is expected to make up 360 million boxes of 40.8 Kg, changing little compared to 2007, but presenting increase of 3.6% in relation to the survey conducted in June (an estimate of 347.5 million boxes). 

The total area harvested in the state has reached 679,960 ha, increasing by 1.7% in relation to 2007. The harvested area increased 3.0%, changing to 582.760 ha. Due to the dry period occurred in 2007, which brought health problems to flowering, the expected state average yield of 25,204 kg/ha, below the 2.9% obtained in 2007.

Agricultural production in 2008 – a comparison between July and June estimates

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural production of July, the highlights were the changes in the production estimates, in relation to June, of: rice in husk (-1.3%), coffee in grain (0.3%), beans in grain (1.6%), oranges (3.4%), corn in grain (1.9%), soybeans in grain (0.4%), sorghum in grain (3.0%) and wheat in grain (3.2%).

RICE in husk – In relation to June, the area to be harvested, estimated as 2,860,704 ha, is 0.4% lower, and the estimated production (12.1 million metric tons) is 1.3% lower. In July there were losses in the areas directed to harvests in Pará (-5.3%), Amazonas (-66.9%), Piauí (-0.8%), Minas Gerais (-1.4%), the main areas accounting for the negative evaluation in comparison with June results.

Rio Grande do Sul, with a record production of 7.4 million metric tons, accounts for 60.9% of the national production. The picture below represents the ranking of the main producing Federative Units and the percentage of change in comparison with the previous estimate.

COFFEE in grain – The harvesting of this crop is at an advanced stage. The July estimate for the national amount to be harvested in 2008 amounts to 46.2 million 60kg-sacks (2,772,630 t), 0.3% higher than the amount estimated in June. In the main producing centers, as it can be seen in the graph below, there have been slight changes compared to the June estimate.

BEANS in grain – In July, the national production of beans is estimated as 3.536.099 metric tons. This estimate includes: 1,637,860 metric tons of the 1st harvest (46.3%), 1,510,319 metric tons of the 2nd harvest (42.7%) and 387,920 metric tons of the 3rd harvest (11.0%). Compared to June, production changes were, respectively: -1.6%; 4.5% and 4.8%.

The decrease observed in the production of 1st harvest beans occurred in Pernambuco (-18.9%), Ceará (-2.5%), Rio Grande do Norte (-6.7%) and Piauí (-0.9%), mainly due to the loss of areas by floods, and to the reevaluations which occurred in Minas Gerais (-1.0%) and São Paulo (-2.0%)

In the second harvest bean harvest, the increase in relation to June is due, mainly, to the performances of Mato Grosso (76.7%), São Paulo (30.6%), Rio Grande do Sul (9.8%) and Paraná (0.3%). For 3^rd harvest beans, still in the field, and whose planting may last until August, production increments are expected in Mato Grosso (80.3%) and Goiás (11.5%). It is important to mention that decrease occurred in Paraná (-15.1%), due to harsh climatic conditions, and to the non-occurrence of previously expected planting.

CORN in grain – The estimated national production of corn is 58,468,201 metric tons. This estimate includes: 40,048,606 metric tons of the 1st harvest (68.5%) and 18,419,595 metric tons of the 2nd harvest (31.5%). In relation to June, increases of 0.5% and 5.3% , respectively, are expected. The current increase of 1^st harvest corn production has occurred due to the reevaluation of harvests in São Paulo (4.7%), Mato Grosso (7.1%), Tocantins (21.9%), Pará (4.0%), Maranhão (2.1%), Goiás (0.2%) and Paraná (0.1%).

For 2nd harvest corn, despite the frosts which occurred on June 16 and 17, affecting crops in Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, the present evaluation still estimates production increase in these two states of, respectively, 0.2% and 0.7%, due to the reevaluation of planted area. The other states which have provided data about corn planting, in this second period, also had increments: Mato Grosso (10.5%), São Paulo (22.4%), Bahia (4.0%), Goiás (0.8%) and Minas Gerais (3.5%).

SOYBEANS in grain – The estimated production is the record amount of 60.0 million metric tons, distributed over 21.3 million hectares, with average yield of 2,819 kg/ha. Almost 90% of the national production of this oilseed occurs in Mato Grosso (29.8%), Paraná (19.8%), Rio Grande do Sul (13.0%), Goiás (11.0%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7.6%), Bahia (4.6%) and Minas Gerais (4.2%).In this month’s estimate, the slight change occurred due to adjustments base don the final harvesting data.

SORGHUM in grain – The estimated production of sorghum is 1, 821,068 metric tons, surpassing by 3.0% the figure estimated in the previous month. This increase was caused by Goiás (4.0%), Mato Grosso (9.2%) and Minas Gerais (7.3%).Sorghum is an alternative for the second harvest, since it is usually planted after the harvest of soybeans, especially in some savanna areas. Use as animal food, it may partially replace corn in grain. Its difference from corn, due to a better resistance in less fertile soil and to long dry periods, which characterize this type of vegetation, cause this cereal to be a less risky option to rural producers at this time of the planting period.

WHEAT in grain – In the evaluation of this crop, the estimated output is 5.4 million tons, for an area of 2.4 million hectares and an average yield of 2,295 kg/ha. In the South Region, which accounts for 92.3% of the national production of wheat, the 2008 harvest goes on increasing, with good results in most cases. The heat of the beginning of July has given way to milder temperatures, which is beneficial to wheat at this time of year.

São Paulo was the only state in which data from the previous year remained unchanged. All the other producing states had positive changes in the expected production (picture above). In Goiás, the expected average yield, of 4,680 kg/ha, is twice as the national average (2,295 kg/ha). This can be seen a consequence of the high technology employed in the planting of crops, including the use of irrigation.