Although the June estimate (143.6 million metric tons) is 0.5% lower that the amount estimated in May (144.3 million metric tons), the harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2008 is expected to surpass that of 2007 (133.1 million metric tons) by 7.9%, and reach a record figure.

Although the June estimate (143.6 million metric tons) is 0.5% lower that the amount estimated in May (144.3 million metric tons), the harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2008 is expected to surpass that of 2007 (133.1 million metric tons) by 7.9%, and reach a record figure. The slight reduction in the expected harvest is due, mainly, to losses in crops of 2^nd-harvest corn.

The area planted in 2008 (47.1 million hectares) is expected to be 3.9% bigger than in 2007. Also compared to the previous year, increased production is expected for 17 of the 25 products included in the survey (LSPA), among which are rice (11.0%), coffee (27.3%), sugarcane (14.0%), 2^nd harvest beans (34.6%),castor beans (64.8%) and wheat (28.3%). Declines in production are expected for cotton (2.5%), 1^st-harvest potatoes (2.1%), onions (4.2%), 1^st harvest beans (6.3%), 3^rd-harvest beans (6.3%), oranges (2.8%), cassava (0.9%) and triticale (4.6%).

The sixth estimate for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds¹ points to an output of 143.6 million metric tons², surpassing by 7.9% the 2007 production (133.1 million metric tons) and also 0.5% lower than the amount estimated in May (144.3 million metric tons).  This reduction has occurred due to the losses in the crops of 2^nd-harvest corn, affected by harsh climactic conditions. June estimates for the area planted with grains (47.1 million hectares) point to 3.9% of increase in relation to 2007. Among the crops surveyed, soybeans, corn and rice are expected to occupy the biggest areas (respectively, 21.2; 14.4 and 2.9 million hectares) in 2008. Together, these three products account for 90% of the estimated national production of grains.

As shown in the graph above, between 1980 and 2008, production increased most significantly than planted area, evidencing the technological advances which have led to increases in the average yield of crops. Although there has been slight reduction in comparison with results in the previous month, there is still the possibility of a new record in 2008.

By area, the harvest estimate is distributed as follows: South, 60.4 million metric tons; Central West, 49.4 million metric tons; Southeast, 17.2 million metric tons; Northeast, 12.8 million metric tons and North, 3.8 million metric tons. The grain harvest percentages by region and by Federative Unit are shown below.

Among the main temporary summer crops, such as soybeans, rice and 1^st harvest corn, in the main producing centers of the South, Southeast and Central West, harvest has already been complete without big changes in relation to May estimates. In terms of crops which are still in the field, climactic conditions in this June evaluation, differently from what happened last month, are not completely favorable.

Agricultural production in 2008 – June estimates compared to the 2007 harvest

There has been increase of the estimated output of 17 among the 25 products analyzed, compared to 2007: 1^st harvest peanuts (29.5%), 2^nd harvest peanuts (15.0%), rice in husk (11.0%), oats in grain (11.5%), 2^nd harvest potatoes (20.9%), 3^rd harvest potatoes (2.8%), cacao nuts (3.5%), coffee in grain (27.3%), sugarcane (14.0%), barley in grain (2.9%), 2^nd harvest beans (34.6%), castor beans in segment (64.8%), 1^st harvest corn (10.3%), 2^nd harvest corn (11.4%), soybeans in grain (3.2%), sorghum in grain (27.6%) and wheat in grain (28.3%). Declines are expected for seed cotton (2.5%), 1^st harvest potatoes (2.1%), onions (4.2%), 1^st harvest beans in grain (6.3%), 3^rd harvest beans in grain (6.3%), onions (2.8%), cassava (0.9%) and triticale in grain (4.6%).

In percentages, compared to the pervious year, the highlights were castor beans, 2^nd harvest beans, 1st harvest peanuts, wheat, sorghum and coffee. In absolute figures, the highlights were corn (both harvests), soybeans, rice and wheat. For sugarcane, also with a high volume of production, the expected increase in relation to 2007 is 14.0%.

For coffee, all the main producing Federative Units have reported increase in average yield compared to 2007: Minas Gerais (38.9%), Espírito Santo (2.9%), São Paulo (57.8%), Rondônia (22.7%), Bahia (5.7%) and Paraná (48.3%). In terms of the area harvested or to be harvested, the changes in relation to 2007 are: Minas Gerais (+2.5%), Espírito Santo (-2.1%), São Paulo (+1.1%), Rondônia (-1.2%), Bahia (+1.9%) and Paraná (-0.1%).  In the country, the area used for harvesting is expected to reach the end of the harvesting period with increase of 0.7% in relation to 2007, and the average yield is supposed to increase 26.3%, evidencing the phenomenon of the two-year coffee production in its high season, as shown in the graph below:

Agricultural production in 2008 – June and May estimates compared

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production of June, the highlights compared to May results were the changes in the estimates for rice (0.8%), oats in grain (-3.3%), coffee in grain (0.3%), sugarcane (0.4%), 3^rd harvest beans (-13.0%), 2^nd harvest corn (-4.9%), soybean in grain (-0.1%) and wheat in grain (1.7%).

RICE in husk – The rice area to be harvested is 2,870,845 ha, for an estimated production of 12.3 million metric tons, pointing to increase of 0.8% in relation to last month. The production in Rio Grande do Sul (the record figure of 7.4 million tons) is 60.1% of the national production and was the main responsible for the increases of 0.5% in area and in production estimated in June. The picture that follows shows the main producing Federative Units and the percentage of change in relation to the pervious estimate.

OATS in grain – For oats, the estimated production is 237.4 thousand metric tons, 3.3% below the figure registered last year. This reduction, as shown in the graph below, is due to the contribution of Paraná, with a reduced production estimate as a consequence once the expected planting has not occurred. 

COFFE in grain – The June estimate for the amount to be harvested in 2008 is 46.1 million 60 kg sacks (2,764,016 metric tons), 0.3% above the May figure. In the main producing centers, as it can be observed in the graph below, there were slight increases.

SUGARCANE – For the current month the expected production is 588.0 million tons, 0.4% above the May estimate, with increase of 0.5% in the area directed to this crop. This positive change in the production estimate, as shown in the picture below, is due, mainly, to the new data relative to the state of Goiás based on new field estimates, besides few changes in the figures for Minas Gerais and Paraná.

BEANS in grain – 3rd harvest – The third harvest of beans, which had the lowest results among the three harvests of this product (10.6%), is estimated for this month as 370.1 thousand tons, 13% below the figure in the pervious month. In relation to the area to be harvested, of 173,692 ha, there has been reduction by 11.2%, as a result, mainly, of the decline in Goiás, where planting is 41.7% lower. It is worth mentioning that, once this is the first estimate, and that planting goes on until August, this lower planting area may undergo some changes. Minas Gerais, the main national producer of this crop, accounting for 41.5% of the production, had slight increase of 2.3%. The overall production of beans, the sum of three harvests, in this June evaluation, is 3,480,485 metric tons, being 0.60% lower than the May estimate, affected, mainly, by the non- occurrence of planting of the total estimated area for 3^rd-harvest beans. The picture below shows the group of the main producers in the period, and the change occurred in relation to May.

CORN in grain – 2nd harvest - 2nd harvest corn accounts for 30.5% of the overall production of corn n grain for 2008, which has been estimated as 17.5 million tons, 4.9% below the figure informed in the previous month. This negative change results, mainly, from the occurrence of frosts in the state of Paraná, where the estimated production decreased by 15.5%, as a consequence of the reduction o average yield by 10.1%, which has changed from 4,036 kg/ha to 3,630 kg/ha in this June evaluation, and also due to the loss of 6.0% of the area used for harvesting (-95.241 ha).

In Mato Grosso do Sul, frosts have negatively affected the average yield of this crop by 2.9%. However, the new field survey points to increase of 3.9% in planted area, compensating the decrease of productivity with the increase of production by 0.9%, resulting in production estimate of 2,947,800 metric tons. The picture below illustrates the importance of Paraná agriculture in the variation of overall production, once, among the participant Federative Units, it was the only one to present such decrease.

SOYBEANS in grain – For soybeans, the estimated production in 59.8 million metric tons, distributed among 21.2  million hectares, with average yield of 2,819 kg/ha. Over 73% of the national production of this oilseed is concentrated in the states of Mato Grosso (29.7%), Paraná (19.9%), Rio Grande do Sul (13.0%) and Goiás (10.9%). In the estimate of this month, slight change occurred due to the minor adjustments based on final harvesting data.

WHEAT in grain – The estimated production of 5.2 million metric tons, for an area of 2.3 million hectares and average yield of 2,295 kg/ha. The states of the South region, which account for 93% of the national production (see picture below), show slight changes in the expected production compared to the previous month.

It is worth mentioning that the low temperatures registered in the area have allowed better tillering, which may raise production estimates. Besides, planting has been extended until July, and that may result in future changes in these estimates. The other producing areas also present increases, especially the Central West, where production is expected to increase by over 40%. In this producing zone, the highlight is Goiás, whose average yield (4,695 kg/ha) is twice as much the national average (2,295 kg/ha), considering the high technology employed in the treatment of crops, including the aid of irrigation.

The summer harvesting of annual crops is almost complete and that the coming surveys are directed to winter crops and 2^nd and 3^rd harvests of the aforementioned products.

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¹ Cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, oats, rye, barley, sunflower seeds, sorghum and triticale. 

² The surveys for cereals, legumes and oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Company (Conab), a section of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply – (MAPA), as a sequence to the process of harmonization of official harvests, which started in October 2007, for the main Brazilian crops.