Production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2008 (144.3 million tons) is expected to surpass by 8.4% the total obtained in 2007.

 

Production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2008 (144.3 million metric tons) is expected to surpass by 8.4% the total obtained in 2007.Nineteen of the 25 products investigated are expected to have production above that of last year, including:  sugarcane (13.5%), 2^nd harvest beans (32.1%), 3^rd harvest beans (7.7%), 1^st harvest corn (10.4%), 2^nd harvest corn (17.2%), soybeans (3.3%), wheat (26.2%) and coffee (27.0%), which may have one of the biggest harvests in history. The production of soybeans in 2008 (3.5 million metric tons) is expected to surpass the consumption needs in the country.   

 

The planted area (47.0 milion hectares) is expected to be 3.7% bigger than in last year. The Survey of Stocks showed that, on December 31, 2007, the storage chain of agricultural products had 8,996 active establishments, 0.9% less than in the first semester of 2007.

 

The fifth estimate for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds[sup1[/sup], relative to May 2008, points to production of 144.3 million metric tons,  1.2% above the amount estimated in April (142.6 million metric tons) and 8.4% above the amount obtained in 2007 (133.1 million metric tons). The estimated planted area in 2008 (47.0 million hectares) increased by 3.7% above that of 2007. Among the products surveyed, soybeans, corn and rice (which represent 90.3% of the estimated production of grains) are expected to take up the biggest areas in 2008: 21.2; 14.5 and 2.9 million hectares, respectively.

 

 

The figure above shows the evolution of production of grains and the occupation of Brazilian agricultural land with these crops from 1980 to 2008. Production increased most significantly than planted area, reflecting the technological changes which have contributed to the increase of average yield. The record level of production reached in 2003 (123.6 million tons), when the output surpassed 100 million tons of grains, was beaten in 2007 (133.1 million metric tons), and now a new record is expected for 2008 (144.3 million metric tons).

 

 

 

The distribution of the estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds by area is: South, 61.6 million metric tons; Central West 49.2 million metric tons; Southeast, 17.1 million metric tons; Northeast, 12.6 million metric tons and North, 3.8 million metric tons.

 

The main temporary summer crops, such as soybeans, rice and 1^st harvest corn, in the main producing centers of the Southeast, South and Central West Regions are practically harvested. In a general way, the good meteorological conditions which contribute to the proper development of 2^nd and 3^rd harvest crops such as corn and beans still remains. It also contributes to the planting of winter crops, for example, wheat.

 

2008 Agricultural Production – May estimate compared to 2007 harvest

 

Among the 25 products analyzed, nineteen had positive change in the estimated production compared to the previous year: 1^st harvest peanuts (29.0%), 2^nd harvest peanuts (15.0%), rice in husk (10.2%), oats in grain (15.3%), 2^nd harvest potatoes (20.2%), 3^rd harvest potatoes (8.0%), cacao nuts (3.5%), coffee in grain (27.0%), sugarcane (13.5%), barley in grain (2.3%), 2^nd harvest beans in grain (32.1%), 3^rd harvest beans in grain (3.3%), castor beans in segment (68.9%), 1^st harvest corn in (10.4%), 2^nd harvest corn in grain (17.2%), soybeans in grain (3.3%), sorghum in grain (22.1%), wheat in grain (26.2%) and triticale in grain (5.3%). With negative changes were herbaceous cotton in seed (2.6%), 1^st harvest potatoes (0.3%), onions (7.6%), 1^st harvest beans in grain (6.8%), oranges (2.8%) and cassava (1.0%).

 

 

 

In terms of percent changes in the year, the highlights were castor beans, 2^nd harvest beans, 1^st harvest peanuts, coffee (due to its biennial nature, that is, alternation of bigger and smaller volume from one harvest to the other) and wheat. In absolute terms, the highlights were the crops of corn (both crops), soybeans, rice and wheat. Sugarcane, which also presents a big volume of production, had increment of 13.5% in relation to 2007. It is important to highlight that the sum of the three bean harvests, the total volume to be produced this year, of 3.5 million tons, surpasses the prospects of internal consumption. With summer harvest practically over, 2^nd and 3^rd winter crops will be checked in future surveys.

 

Comparison of estimates in May and April 2008

 

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production³ of May, compared to the April edition, the highlights are the changes in the estimated production of seven items: rice in husk (1.5%), coffee in grain (0.5%), sugarcane (5.0%), 3^rd harvest beans (8.1%), 1^st harvest corn in grain (0.7%), 2^nd harvest corn in grain (1.3%), soybeans in grain (0.6%) and wheat in grain (12.4%).

 

 

RICE in husk – The area planted with rice is 2,860,140 ha, for an expected production, in this fifth estimate, of 12.2 million metric tons and increase of 1.5% in relation to last month. Rio Grande do Sul accounts for 60.2% of the national production and was the main responsible for this positive change due, as seen in the graph below, to the increment of 1.6% in production. This occurred as a consequence of the reevaluation of 1.1% in the average yield of the State, which was estimated as 6,878 kg/ha now.

 

COFFEE in grain – The estimated harvest of 2,756,987 t (45.9 million sacks of 60kg), a little more than the amount estimated in April (0.5%). If present conditions are kept, the country will have one of the biggest harvests in history. Harvesting is already in progress, reaching about 20% of the total expected .There were increases in all the main producing Federative Units, in relation to 2007: Minas Gerais (39.1%), Espírito Santo (3.4%), São Paulo (57.8%), Rondônia (21.6%), Bahia (5.7%) and Paraná (44.3%). In the area to be harvested, changes in comparison with 2007 were: Minas Gerais (2,5%), Espírito Santo (-2,3%), São Paulo (1,1%), Rondônia (-1,0%), Bahia (1,9%) e Paraná (-0,1%). In Brazil, the average yield increased 26.0% and the area to be harvested, only 0.7%, evidencing the biennial nature of coffee (alternation of bigger and smaller volume from one harvest to the other). 

 

 

 

SUGARCANE - The estimate amounts to 585.6 million metric tons, 5.0% above the figure informed in the previous month (558.0 million metric tons), and the area to be planted has increased by 4.9%. This increase shows the interest by derivative products, mainly sugar and ethanol, which is more beneficial now, especially as a consequence of the increase of consumption in the internal market. The following picture shows the importance of the variable harvested area, which has been on a steady growing trend, being the main responsible for the increase of this crop in the country.

 

3^rd harvest BEANS in grain – The third harvest of beans, of which contribution was reduced considering the participation of the three harvests of the product (12.1%), is estimated in this survey as 425.3 thousand metric tons, overcoming by 8.1% the amount informed in the previous month. Minas Gerais, the biggest producer of this crop, made up 35.3% of the production, accounting for the gain this month. The picture below shows that the harvest in the state of Minas changed by 27.4%, compared to the figure in the previous month.

 

1^st harvest CORN in grain – The production of 39.9 million metric tons is 0.7% bigger that that estimated in the previous month, accounting for 68.4% of the total of corn in grain estimated for 2008. The Northeast, Southeast and South Regions accounted for the increase observed in May. In Paraná, the main producer, where harvest is almost over, there was increase of 1.8% in the average income (from 6,898 to 7,020 kg/ha). A new record is expected for the production of 1^st harvest corn in grain.

 

2^nd harvest corn (in grain) – The 2nd harvest represents 31.6% of the total production of corn in grain for 2008, estimated to be 18.4 million tons and overcoming by 1.3% the data released in April. This increment resulted, as shown in the graph below, from new data obtained in the Northeast and Southeast Regions, mainly. Considering the Northeast region, Bahia presents increment of 34.3% in production as a consequence of the reevaluation of average yield (+ 31.9%), whereas in the Southeast Region, the increments resulted from the adjustments in production data of São Paulo and Minas Gerais, by 9.8% and 9.4%, respectively.

 

SOYBEANS in grain – The estimated production of soybeans is the record figure of 59.88 million tons, distributed over 21.2 million hectares, with average yield of 2,821 kg/ha. More than 70% of national production is concentrated in Grosso (29.6%), Paraná (19.9%), Rio Grande do Sul (13.0%) and Goiás (11.0%). May estimates show increase of 0.6% in production due to readjustments of average yield. The increments registered in the states of Paraná, Bahia, Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Maranhão, Piauí and Pará resulted from these reevaluations.

WHEAT in grain – Its estimated production is 5.2 million tons, for na area of 2.258.257 ha and average yield of 2,286 kg/ha. Paraná and RS concentrate over 90% of the national production of wheat. The May estimate surpasses by 12.4% the production estimated in April. To this increase contributed, besides Paraná, the other Federative Units which have provided data relative to this crop for the first time (see picture below). Once planting is still in progress, if climactic conditions are still normal, the current estimate may increase. Several economic factors have influenced the increase of area, among which are the restraints to exports by Argentina, the low international stocks of this product, the rise of prices and the benefits granted by the government.

 

Amount of wheat, soybeans and rice in stock increase; coffee and corn decrease

 

The Survey of Stocks investigated the volume and the spatial distribution of stocks of agricultural basic products and the units in which they are kept: establishments of companies owned by the government, private companies and cooperatives of mixed economy which, currently, amount to 11,000 establishments. The establishments surveyed area commercial and industrial ones, and those of storage services which have storage units with useful capacity equals to or about 400 m³ or 240 t, as well as supermarkets and agricultural establishments with useful capacity equals to or about 2,000 m³or 1,200 t.

 

 

In the second quarter of 2007, the number of active establishments of the storage chain of agricultural products of the country fell by 0.9%, in comparison with the first quarter in 2007. In the end of the second quarter of 2007, this chain had 8,996 active establishments, of which 42.4% were located in the South region, 23.6% in the Southeast Region, 8.4% in the Northeat region and 3.4% in the North region.

 

Conventional, structural and inflatable warehouses amounted to 80 513 554 m³, and over 70.0% of these were concentrated in the Southeast and Soth Regions. Bulk warehouses amounted to 50 833 307 metric tons of useful capacity, considering that the Central West Region held 49.4% of this total storage capacity and the South, 34.9%.  Silos for grains presented 41 192 939 metric tons of useful capacity in the country, being 53.6% of this total in the South Region and 27.2% and 14.2% in the Central West and South Regions, respectively.

 

The biggest amount in stock on December 31, 2007 were those of corn in grain (4 018 275 t), wheat in grain (3 579 800 t), soybeans in grain (3 394 289 t), rice in husk (2 290 348 t) and coffee in grain (898 639 t), as shown in the table below:

 

 

When compared to stocks on December 31, 2006, the stocks of wheat, soybeans and rice in husk had positive changes of 35.3%, 11.2% and 7.9%, respectively, whereas the stocks of corn and coffee presented decrease of 18.2% and 21.4%, respectively.

 

 

 

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 ¹ Cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, oats, rye, barley, sunflower seeds, sorghum and triticale. 

 

² As a reply to requests from users of harvest information, the surveys for cereals, legumes and oilseeds which are now released were conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Company (Conab), a section of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply – (MAPA), as a sequence to the process of harmonization of official harvests, which started in October 2007, for the main Brazilian crops.

                                                      

³ LSPA is a monthly survey of estimate and monitoring of the harvest of the main agricultural products, about which data are obtained through the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA), united at state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Group (GCEA) and later, evaluated, at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).