These were the first declines in comparison with the previous month, after three months with increasing rates.  Both sales (2.2%) and nominal revenue (2.6%) had increased in January. In relation to January 2007 (series without adjustment), the volume of sales increased 12.2%, reaching accumulated rates of 12.0% in the year and 10.2% in the last 12 months. Nominal revenue rates were, respectively, 16.7%, 16% and 13.1%.

In February 2008, after a quarter with positive results, Retail trade in the country faced decline in volume of sales (-1.5%) and in nominal revenue (-1.4%); both changes occurred versus the previous months (seasonally adjusted). There was stabilization, after significant increases of the volume of sales (2.2%) and nominal revenue (2.6%) in January. In the other comparisons, in the series without adjustment, national retail trade had, in terms of volume of sales, increases of 12.2% over February the same year and of 12.0% and 10.2% accumulated in the year and in the last twelve months, respectively. For the same indicators, nominal revenue of sales changed by 16.7%, 16.0% and 13.1%, respectively (Tables 1 and 2).

At the end of 2007, it was possible to obtain the minimum number of elements needed to calculate the lack of seasonal effect of activities which had not been covered so far. This way, in 2008, the results released are seasonally adjusted for all the activities which form retail trade and extended retail trade.

In February, there were increases in volume of sales with seasonal adjustment in seven of the ten activities surveyed: Office, computer and communication equipment (12.4%); Vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces (5.2%); Construction material (3.6%); Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles (2.7%); Fuels and lubricants (2.05); Furniture and household appliances (1.8%); Other articles of personal and domestic use (0.4%); Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles and cosmetics (-2.8%); Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (-3.9%); Textiles, apparel and footwear (-4.0%).

Compared to results in February 2007 (series without adjustment), there were increases in the volume of sales of all the retail trade activities: 7.2% for Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco; 22.3% for Furniture and household appliances for; 27.5% for Other articles of personal and domestic use; 12.7% for Textiles, apparel and footwear; 7.2% for Fuels and lubricants; 14.1% for Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles and cosmetics; 38.9% for Office, computer and communication equipment and 17. 9% forBooks, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles.

RESULTS BY ACTIVITY

The activity Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco, even with a result below average (7.2% for volume of sales in February, compared to the same month in the previous year) accounted for the major contribution (31%) to the overall retail rate. In terms of the index accumulated in the last 12 months, the activity increased by 6.7%. This performance resulted from the increased purchasing power of the population, as a consequence not only of the bigger salary volume, but also of the expansion of credit. As for the fact that the index increased at a rate below the national average, the most probable explanation is in the acceleration of food prices which, in the last few months, reached 12.9% of accumulated change (from March /07 to Feb/08), versus inflation of 4.6% in the period, according to IPCA.

Furniture and household appliances, with increase of 22.3% in volume of sales in relation to February 2007, accounted for the second main contribution to the performance of Retail trade (27%, as seen in Table 3). In terms of the index accumulated in the last 12 months, there was increase of 15.1%. These positive results, above the average of retail trade, were due to the expansion of credit; to the reduction of prices of electronic appliances and to the improvement of salary volume of the employed population.

The activity Other articles of personal and domestic use, with the third main contribution to the retail rate, changed by 27.5% in terms of volume of sales in relation to February 2007, accounting for 16% of the overall rate. Encompassing subsectors such as department stores, glasses shops, jewelry shops, sporting goods stores and toy stores, etc, this activity has been positively affected by the improvement of economy. The index accumulated in the last 12 months was about 24.1%.

The fourth major contribution to the positive result of retail, in February, came from Textiles, apparel and footwear, which led to the increase of the volume of sales by 12.7%, in comparison with the same month in the previous year. This result can be seen as a consequence of the good performance of Brazilian economy as a whole. The accumulated change in 12 months was 11.8%.

The activity Fuels and lubricants, with 7.2% of change in volume of sales, compared to February 2007, accounted for the main contribution to the overall rate of retail trade, and had accumulated rate of 5.3% in the last 12 months. This behavior is seen as a consequence of the stability of fuel prices, together with the improvement of economic conditions in the country.

The activity Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles, which accounted for the sixth main contribution to the overall retail trade rate, increased by 14.1% in relation to February 2007 and accumulated 10.5% in the last 12 months. The increase of salary volume, the diversity of products traded and the increase of sales of generic products are the main factors accounting for this positive performance. 

The activity Office, computer and communication material and equipment, responsible for the seventh main contribution to the formation of the overall rate, increased in terms of volume of sales, in January, of 38.9% over the same month in the previous year, and having accumulated, in the last 12 months, 31.4%. This is the activity with the highest level of increase in February. Among the factors accounting for this performance, the highlights are the reduction of products of this subsector, and also financing benefits and the growing importance of computer-related products in the consumption of families.

The activity Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles, with increase above average, was, once more, the least significant to the result of retail trade due to its reduced participation in the structure of the survey. In relation to February 2007, it had 17.9% of increase in volume of sales and of 9.0% in the last 12 months. These figures also resulted from the improvement of economy as a whole.  

Extended retail trade (Retail trade and the activities Vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces and Construction material) increased by 1.0% in terms of volume of sales and by 1.5% in terms of nominal revenue of sales, both in relation to the previous month (with seasonal adjustment). Compared to February 2007 (without seasonal adjustment), the changes were 18.1% for volume of sales and 22.4% for nominal revenue.  In terms of the index accumulated in the last 12 months, the rates were 14.4% and 16.6%, respectively.

Concerning volume of sales, the activity Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces increased 30.5% compared to February 2007, having accumulated 23.9% in the last 12 months. With this result, the activity is placed in the second position in terms of increase rates. The reduction of interest rates, the increase of financing periods and the positive expectations for the maintenance of employment are the main causes to this result.

In terms of Construction material, the changes were 19.0% in relation to February 2007 and 11.8%, accumulated in the last 12 months. This performance resulted from the favorable scenario of economy, especially in what concerns credit and salary volume, and also with official measures of incentive to construction, with the decrease of taxes (and fall of prices) for some basic items used in the sector.

RESULTS BY AREA

Rates in three Federative Units fell in relation to February 2007: Roraima (-3.5%); Amazonas (-2.6%) and Acre (-1.0%). The main increases in volume of sales were those of Rio Grande do Norte (21.5%); Paraíba (17.8%); São Paulo (16.6%); Rondônia (15.4%) and Maranhão (14.2%). The highlights in terms of contribution to the overall rate of Retail trade were São Paulo (16.6%); Rio de Janeiro (8.9%); Rio Grande do Sul (11.9%); Minas Gerais (9.9%) and Paraná (8.9%).

In terms of extended retail trade, the highest performance rates for volume of sales occurred in Rondônia (29.8%); Goiás (27.2%); Espírito Santo (26.8%); Grande do Norte (25.8%) and Santa Catarina (20.6%). In terms of contribution to the overall result, the highlights were São Paulo (20.3%); Rio Grande do Sul (19.6%); Minas Gerais (15.4%) Paraná (19.5%) and Rio de Janeiro (11.0%).

Still with reference to the Federative Units, the results with seasonal adjustment for volume of sales indicate only five positive changes, in comparison with the previous month: Mato Grosso (2.8%); Rondônia (2.4%); Rio Grande do Norte (2.5%); Federal District (0.3%) and Amazonas (0.1%). The biggest decreases occurred in Pará (-9.8%); Piauí (-8.1); Ceará (-5.4%); Bahia (-3.9%) and Paraná (-3.6%).