Estimated grain production is 0.6% higher than in February and 5.6% above the amount produced in 2007 (133.1 million metric tons). Also in comparison with last year, IBGE’s systematic survey points to increase of 2.5% in planted area, which is expected to reach 46.5 million hectares in 2008.

The third estimate for national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds¹ points to production of 140.5 million metric tons², being 0.6% above the production estimated for February (139.6 million metric tons), and 5.6% above that of 2007 (133.1 million metric tons). The positive difference, of about 800 thousand metric tons, considering the information presented in March and February, refers, mainly, to 1^st harvest-corn and soybeans. In relation to the area planted in 2007, the current estimate has increased by 2.5%, reaching 46.5 million hectares. Among the products investigated, soybeans, corn and rice have the biggest estimated areas, with, respectively, 21.1, 14.4 and 2.9 million tons of hectares to be harvested in 2008. These products represent 91.2% of the national estimated production of grains.            

The highlights, in comparison with the previous year, are the increments to the production figures of rice and corn (for both harvests) and of soybeans.

In absolute terms, the production of cereal, legumes and oilseeds is distributed as follow among the Major Regions: South, 60.0 million tons; Central West, 48.0 million tons; Southeast, 16.5 million tons; Northeast, 12.2 million tons; and North, 3.7 million tons. Harvesting of the main temporary summer crops, especially soybeans, corn and rice is already in progress, and the harvested products have presented good quality, thus confirming the prospects of new production records.

2008 Agricultural Production – comparison of February and March estimates

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural production (LSPA) of March, the highlights were the changes in production estimates, in comparison with February figures, of seven items: rice in husk (-0.9%), coffee in grain (-0.1%), 1^st harvest beans in grain (-3.2%), 2^nd harvest beans in grain (4.2%), 1^st harvest corn in grain (1.2%), 2^nd harvest corn in grain (0.5%) and soybeans in grain (0.6%).

RICE (in husk) – The third estimate for rice production in 2008 is 12.0 million metric tons, with reduction by 0.9% in relation to the previous month. Except for the South Region, which accounts for 70% of the monthly production, there were decreases in all the areas: North (-4.9%), Northeast (-3.4%), Southeast (-3.3%) and Central West (-1.3%).

COFFEE (in grain) – For coffee, there is the confirmation of estimates of a productive, due to the biannual nature of crops of Arabic coffee, which is the most often planted type. Harsh climatic conditions, mainly those in the 2^nd quarter of 2007, did not affect yield in 2008. The rainy season in July and August 2007, in the main coffee planting areas of the county was almost completely overcome by the dry period which started in September and continued up to October. These irregularities made it difficult, at first, to make predictions about the ongoing year, at least until the evaluation of the level of survival of fruits. Few adjustments in the area to be planted and production estimates for MG, ES, BA, RO and PA have not altered February numbers significantly. In March, when grains are already starting the maturation phase, the estimated national production is 1,181 kg/ha (19.7 sc/ha). These numbers can still be rectified in the next field surveys. Prospects for both the internal and external remain favorable, considering the low levels of world stocks.

1st harvest BEANS (in grain) – For 1^st harvest beans, the current estimate of 1.7 million tons is 3.2% below the previous estimate. This decrease is a consequence of the dry period which occurred in the Northeast Region, also as a consequence of the reevaluations of the final harvesting data in important producing centers, especially in Goiás.

2nd harvest BEANS (in grain)– Considering 2^nd harvest beans, there was increase of 4.2% in the expected production, now estimated as 1.3 million tons, considering the best expectations for the average yield (+6.9%, having hanged from 841 kg/ha to 899 kg/ha), as a consequence of satisfactory climatic conditions. This evaluation, at national level, must be analyzed with care, although the prices of these products reflect gains, for the Northeast Region (the major producer), the data still refer to planting prospects.

1^st harvest CORN (in grain) – For 1^st harvest corn, the estimated production is 38.8 million metric tons, 1.2% above the amount estimated in February. This increase is distributed among all the producing Major Regions, with Pará as the main highlight. This state accounted for 23.7% of the national production, and was favored by the climatic conditions observed in the present harvest.

2nd harvest CORN (in grain) – The production of 2^nd harvest corn may reach 17.3 million metric tons, overcoming by 0.5% the February result. This increase is due, mainly, to new information obtained from the Southeast Region, where estimates for average yield have increased by 8.4% in Minas Gerais and by 7.9% in São Paulo. The good prices corn has reached have caused producers to plant up to the maximum capacity of the agricultural calendar, with the monitoring of crops at different levels of development.

SOYBEANS (in grain) - The estimated production if 59.9 million metric tons of soybeans, being 0.6% above the February estimate. This month witnessed the significant increase of the North (15.0%) and Northeast (4.0%), and especially in the Central West Region, where Goiás, which contributed of 10.8% to the national production, had increase of 5% in the production estimate. It is worth mentioning that, in the South Region, there was unevenly distributed rainfall, and this fact led to the reduction of production estimates by 1.1%.  

2008 Agricultural Production – comparison of March estimates and the 2007 harvest

Among the twenty-five products analyzed, sixteen had increases in the production estimate in relation to the previous year: peanuts in husk – 1st harvest (27.1%), rice in husk (8.1%), oats in grain (4.1%), 1st harvest potatoes (1.2%), 2nd harvest potatoes (7.3%), 3rd harvest potatoes (10.8%), coffee in grain (22.9%), sugarcane (7.9%), barley in grain (11.0%), 2ndharvest beans in grain (20.7%), castor beans (43.7%), 1^st harvest corn (7.5%), 2^nd harvest corn (10.2%), soybeans in grain (3.4%), sorghum in grain (15.6%) and triticale in grain (16.4%). With negative changes, were: upland seed cotton (4.9%), 2nd harvest peanuts in husk (5.4%), cacao nuts (2.9%), onions (12.1%), 1^st harvest beans in grain (4.3%), 3^rd harvest beans in grain (2.6%), onions (3.1%), cassava (0.4%) and wheat in grain (5.2%). 

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1 Cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, oats, rye, barley, sunflower seeds, sorghum and triticale.

2 The systematic surveys for cereals, legumes and oilseeds have been conducted in partnership with the National Supply Company (Conab), a section of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply – (MAPA). Other federal, state and municipal organizations which generate agricultural information and are part of the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO) also contributed to the results.