In the first evaluation of national harvest for 2008, the IBGE production of cereal, legumes and oilseeds estimated by IBGE is about 136.5 million metric tons, 2.7% above the production obtained last year (132.9 million tons)¹.

In this evaluation of the national harvest of grains)² for 2008, the estimated production is 136.5 million metric tons, 2.7% above that of last year, which was 132.9 million metric tons.

Among the main regions in the country, the expected volume of production in absolute terms and by percent change, in comparison with the previous harvest, was distributed as follows:  North, 3.5 million metric tons (6.8%); Northeast, 12.5 million metric tons (27.7%); Southeast, 16.3 million metric tons (2.6%); South, 58.3 million metric tons (-2.6%); and Central West 45.9 million metric tons (4.2%).

Considering the main grain crops investigated this year in the country, according to the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA)³, which had positive changes in comparison with 2007, the highlights were the following products: herbaceous cotton (seed) (7.1%), rice in husk (8.5%), beans in grain – 1^st harvest (7.4%), corn in grain – 1^st harvest (5.8%) and soybeans in grain (0.1%).  

Production of seed cotton may be 7.1% higher in 2008

The first estimate for herbaceous seed cotton in 2008 points to a production of 4.1 million metric tons, representing increase of 7.1% in relation to the amount obtained in 2007 (3.8 million metric tons). This change was due, mainly, to the increase of cultivated areas in the two main producing states: Mato Grosso, with increase of area of 3.9%, and Bahia, with increment of 13.5%. In both states the increase occurred as a consequence of the stable price of fiber in the internal and external markets, which has been observed since the latest harvest.

First estimate for rice shows increase of 8.5%

In terms of rice crops, so far, there has been increase of 8.5%, a trend already detected in the first estimates conducted in the end of 2007, as a consequence of the increase of 13.0% in planted area in Rio Grande do Sul, the main producing state, which is responsible for over half (59%) of the national production.

Estimated production o 1st harvest beans is 1.9 million metric tons

For 1st-harvest beans, production of 1.9 million metric tons is expected, that is, 74% more than in 2007 (1.8 million metric tons). This favorable result may not be confirmed, however, since the Northeast Region, (which presents significant increase of this crop) has faced serious damages in the data collection period, as a consequence of droughts. This problem has occurred, especially, in the area of Irecê, where damages may exceed 50% of the production, and might be evaluate in the next survey. In the Central West Region, the highlight is the good climactic conditions of Goiás, where production estimates exceeded by 21.3% the production reached in the 1^st harvest of 2007.

1st harvest corn reaches production volume of 38.4 metric tons

Considering 1^st harvest corn, the volume of production obtained was 38.4 million tons, 5.8% above the amount obtained in 2007. This increase occurred, mainly, due to the expansion of the area to important grain producing centers. Another factor which contributed to this movement was the good price of grains due to the reduced world supply. In the United States, for example, a big part of the production was reserved for the ethanol industry. Climate may affect the significant gain of production (58.8%) expected for the Northeast Region.

In 2008, production of soybeans may reach 58.3 million tons

The currently estimated production of soybeans is 58.3 million metric tons; this figure is slightly higher than the volume reached in 2007. This increase results from the expansion of harvesting areas in all the Regions, except in the South. In this same Region, where the climactic phenomenon called La Niña is expected, there was decrease (5.6%) of the expected average yield in comparison with 2007. It is important to highlight, however, that up to the period of data collection, climatic conditions seemed satisfactory.  Only in February will it be possible to evaluate precisely the real harvesting possibilities, since, in this month, soybeans crops are in major need of water.  

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¹ In consideration to the demands of users, the forecasts now published, were conducted with the collaboration of the National Company of Supply (Conab), department of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply – MAPA, initiating a process of harmonization of official estimates of the harvest for the main Brazilian crops.  In this process, the two institutions sum their resources and their efforts willing to guarantee the most accurate and correct information of monitoring of the harvest that the Brazilian government can afford, coordinating progressively methods, sources, period of examination, dates and hours of publishing. For it, they continue to count on the inestimable and permanent contribution of federal, state and municipal public organizations, and other institutions which generate agriculture information and with monitoring and evaluation operated through the System GCEA, Groups of Coordination of Agriculture Statistics in each federative unit and by the CEPAGRO – Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agriculture Statistics.

² Cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, oats, rye, barley, sunflower seeds, sorghum and triticale.

³ LSPA is a monthly survey of estimate and monitoring of the harvest of the main agricultural products, about which data are obtained through the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA), united at state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Group (GCEA) and later, evaluated, at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).