October had the first negative rates in 2007, compared to the previous month. In relation to October 2006, sales increased by 9.6%; the accumulated figures were 9.6%, in the year and 9.1%, in the last 12 months. The rates for nominal trade were 13.5%, 11.4% and 10.6%, respectively.

In October, trade sales interrupted a series of nine positive results which have occurred since December/06 (table below) and registered, in relation to September, decreases for volume (-0.2%) and nominal revenue of sales (-0.3%). It was the first month of the year with negative rates in relation to the pervious month (seasonally adjusted series). The figures accumulated in the year for volume and nominal revenue of sales were, respectively, 7.6% and 11.5%, respectively.

In the remaining comparisons (without seasonal adjustment), the volume of sales increased by 9.6% over October 2006, having accumulated 9.6% from January to October, compared to the same period in 2006, and 9.1% in the last 12 months. The same rates for volume of sales were 13.5%, 11.4% and 10.6%, respectively (Tables 1 and 2).

In relation to the previous month, four of the five activities with seasonally adjusted series had increase in volume of sales: Fuels and lubricants (1.8%); Furniture and household appliances (1.3%); Textiles, apparel and footwear (2.8%); Vehicles, motorcycles, parts, pieces (2.8%). The negative result was that of Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (-1.6%).  

In relation to October 2006, there were increases in the volume of sales in all the retail trade activities, whose rates, in order of importance to the overall result, were: Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (5.6%); Furniture and household articles (13.5%); Other articles of personal and domestic use (19.8%); Textiles, apparel and footwear (14.5%); Furniture and household appliances (6.5%); Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic, perfumery articles and cosmetics (11.9%); Office, computer and communication material and equipment (38.7%) and Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles (16.8%).

Results by Activity

Despite the volume of sales below average (5.6% in October, in relation to the same month in the previous year), the activity Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco represented the main contribution (30%) to retail trade. The activity accumulated 6.5% and 6.7% in the year and in the last 12 months, respectively, due to the improvement of credit conditions, mainly the use of credit cards sponsored by the chains of this type of company.

The activity Furniture and household appliances (13.5% in volume of sales in relation to October the previous year) was the second major impact (22%) over the Retail Trade rate (Table 3). In this activity, the increases accumulated in the year and in the last 12 months were, respectively, 16.0% and 14.6%. This positive result (above the average for retail trade) is seen as a consequence, mainly, of the improvement of credit conditions, of the fall of prices of electronic appliances and of the improvement of salaries of the employed population.

The activity Other articles of personal and domestic, the third major impact to the formation of the retail trade rate, changed by 19.8% in terms of volume of sales in relation to October 2006, accounting for 16% of the overall retail trade rate. It encompassed segments such as department stores, glasses shops, jewelry shops, sporting goods stores, toy stores, etc. The performance of this activity has been affected by the improvement of the economy and, especially this month, by Children’s Day. Having accumulated rates of 22.6% and 21.6% in the year and in the last twelve months, respectively, it remains as the major second increase in terms of volume of sales in 2007.

The segment of Textiles, apparel and footwear, the fourth major contribution to the positive result of October had increase of volume of sales of 14.5%, compared to the same month in the previous year. This performance rate is above the average of retail trade once more, probably due to the celebration of Children’s Day and differently from September, when the increase reached 7.0%. The rate accumulated in the first ten months of 2007 was 10.5%, in relation to the same period of 2006; in the last 12 months, the figure was 8.8%.  

The fifth main positive contribution to the increase of the retail trade volume of sales came from the activity Fuels and lubricants (6.5% in relation to October 2006, the tenth consecutive increase of the monthly rate). This behavior can be seen as a consequence of the fall of fuel prices (with accumulated change of -3.2%, according to IPCA) and of the improvement of economic conditions in the country. The figures accumulated in the year and in the last 12 months were 5.2% and 3.5%, respectively.

Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles, the sixth major contribution to the overall retail trade rate, increased by 11.9% compared to October 2006 and had accumulated rates of 8.5% in the year and of 7.4% in the last twelve months. The increase of the volume of salaries and the diversity of products traded are the main factors accounting for the positive performance of this segment.

Concerning the activity Office, computer and communication equipment, the seventh major contribution to the formation of the overall rate, the volume of sales increased by 38.7% in October, compared to the same month in the previous year; the rates accumulated in the year and in the last 12 months were, respectively, 27.1% and 25.6%. This activity reached the highest level of increase this year. This performance resulted, mainly, from the fall of prices of products of this group, together with financing possibilities and the increasing inclusion of computer-related and communication products in the basket of household consumption.

The activity Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles was, once more, the lowest contribution to the result of retail trade, with increase of 16.8% in the volume of sales, over October 2006. Change rates accumulated in the first ten months of the year and in the last 12 months were, respectively, 7.9% and 6.2%.    

For Extended retail trade (retail and the activities Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and Construction material), the changes in relation to the same month in the previous year were 16.4% for volume of sales and 19.8% for nominal revenue of sales. The rates accumulated in the year and in the last 12 months were, respectively, 13.9% and 12.7%, for volume of sales and 15.0% and 13.6% for nominal revenue.

The volume of sales of the activity Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces increased 29.9% in relation to the same month in the previous year, having accumulated in the first ten months of the year, rate of 23.8%, compared to the same period in 2006 and, in the last 12 months, change of 21.4%. The decrease of interest rates and the increase of financing prices have been the main factors accounting for the increase of sales this year.  

The volume of sales of Construction material increased by 17.1% in relation to October 2006, having accumulated increase of 10.4% in the year and of 9.3% in the last 12 months. These results reflect the favorable conditions of the economy, as well as the official measures taken in order to stimulate construction.

Results by Area

Three of the twenty seven Federative Units had decreases in relation to October 2006: Roraima (-7.1%); Acre (-7.1%); and Rondônia (-1.0%). The highlights, with the main positive changes were: Goiás (14.6%); Mato Grosso (14.6%); São Paulo (11.9%); Maranhão (11.8%) and Bahia (11.7%). In terms of participation in the formation of the Retail Trade rate, the highlights were, in order: São Paulo (11.9%); Rio Grande do Sul (11.1%); Minas Gerais (7.4%); Rio de Janeiro (4.1%) and Paraná (8.7%).

Concerning extended retail trade, the highest rates in the volume of sales were those of Goiás (24.3%); Paraná (21.9%); Espírito Santo (20.9%); Santa Catarina (19.3%); and Maranhão (19.2%). The highlights in terms of relevance to the overall result of the sector were: São Paulo (17.9%); Paraná (21.9%); Rio Grande do Sul (18.3%); Minas Gerais (14.6%); and Rio de Janeiro (9.7%).

Still considering Federative Units, in relation to the previous month (seasonally adjusted series), the rates for volume of sales decreased in 19 states and increased in 8. The main decreases occurred in Tocantins (-3.3%); Maranhão (-2.8%); Alagoas (-2.6%); Acre (-2.3%) and Amazonas (-2.2%). The main increases, in Goiás (4.8%); Roraima (1.5%); and Mato Grosso (1.1%).