IBGE conducted, in November, the second forecast of the planted areas or areas to be planted, as well as the production for the harvest 2008, in the Southeast, South and Central West Regions and in the states of Rondônia, Maranhão, Piauí and Bahia¹ .  The production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2008 was estimated in 137.3 million metric tons, 3.1% more than the one obtained in 2007.  Regarding the harvest 2007 (133.153 million metric tons), with more than 95% of its harvest concluded, a record could be observed, surpassing the harvest 2003, when 123.6 million metric tons were harvested.  The information of the survey of forecast represented 85.6% of the expected national production, while the forecasts concluded answered for 14.4% of the total value.  According to the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production, the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in November of this year must be 133.2 million metric tons, a number 0.1% lower than the estimate of October (133.3 million) and 13.8% higher than the harvest 2006 (117.0 million tons).

Second forecast of the harvest 2008 showed growth of 2.9% in the area to be reaped 

The second evaluation of area to be reaped in 2008, considering the eleven products investigated, was 46.9 million hectares, 2.9% above the area harvested in 2007 (45.5 million hectares).  In absolute terms, this growth amounts to approximately 1.3 million hectares.

Among the eleven products analyzed, six had positive change in relation to the harvested area in 2007: herbaceous cotton in seed (3.8%), peanuts in husk 1st harvest (2.4%), rice in husk (2.0%), sugar cane (8.3%), corn in grain 1st harvest (4.4%) and soybeans in grain (1.5%).

In relation to the expected productions, the following products had positive change: herbaceous cotton in husk (6.5%), peanuts in husk 1st harvest (3.3%), rice in husk (7.9%), sugar cane (9.3%), corn in grain 1st harvest (5.5%) and soybeans in grain (2.0%).  With negative change, potatoes 1st harvest (7.2%), beans in grain 1st harvest (0.6%), tobacco leaves (2.4%) and cassava (0.5%).

In a general way, the data from the second forecast do not differ considerably from the ones observed in October, when the first evaluation of the national harvest of grains was concluded.  The harvest presented decrease of 0.5%, which means, a reduction of 225 thousand hectares.  The expected production increased 0.2%, which represented an increase of 231 thousand metric tons in comparison to the estimate of October.  The delay of rains in the main producing centers of grains in the country, standing out corn, soybeans and rice, delayed the planting of these crops, worrying producers, regarding the point of view of present actions as well as future planning, mainly considering the planting of other harvests.

The sowing continues in course, being considerably advanced.  In some states it reached almost 90%, and it will be probably concluded in mid-December, observing the national agricultural zooning.   With the harvest almost all concluded and the regularization of sowing done, now is the period of observing the climate during the vegetative cycle of crops in course.

Cotton Seed

In the second forecast a production of cotton seed of 4.1 million metric tons is expected, compared to 3.8 million metric tons obtained in 2007, a growth of 6.5%.  This gain of production was related to the increase in the planted area and the productivity in the states of Bahia (13.5% in area and 5.0% in expected yield) and in Mato Grosso, main producer, with 52% of national production (3.9% in area and 1.5% in expected yield).  The factor which most contributed for the positive result was the maintenance of the prices of the product, in the domestic as well as in the foreign market.  In Mato Grosso, the producers, in their majority, formed groups, placing the production directly in the foreign market, through future contracts, obtaining in this way, better results.

Rice (in husk)

In the case of rice, in this second national evaluation for 2008, the expected production was 12.0 million metric tons, 7.9% above the one obtained in 2007.  This increase occurred mainly in Rio Grande do Sul, main producer, with increment of 11.2% in the awaited production and 11.4% in the planted area.  Stood out also that Mato Grosso, main producer in the Central West, had reduction in the planted area (14.7%), due to preferences of the producers for the planting of soybeans, which is easier to sell as well as the reduction of the planting in new areas of the state.

Beans (in grain) 1st harvest

In the second forecast for the national harvest of beans a production of 1.782 metric tons is expected, showing a decrease of only 0.6% compared to the production obtained in 2007 (1.792 million metric tons).  The delay of rains cancelled the planting in many areas in the recommended period, especially in the South of the country.

Corn (in grain) 1st harvest 

The production awaited for corn 1 st harvest was 38.3 million metric tons, 5.5% major than the one observed in 2007, due to the increase of the planting areas in the main producing states of grains.  The good quotation that the product is maintaining as a consequence of the lower supply by the United States, major world producer, which directed part of its harvest to the production of ethanol, contributed for this scenario. 

Soybeans (in grain)

Regarding soybeans, the forecast for 2008 was 59.3 million metric tons, a growth of approximately 2.0% compared to the volume obtained in 2007.  The area to be harvested showed an increase of 1.4%, while the awaited yield fell 0.5%, being, respectively, 20.9 million hectares and 2,835 kg/ha.

Expected production for sugar cane in 2008 is 561.8 million metric tons

The estimate of sugar cane for 2008 shows an expected production of 561.8 million metric tons, 9.3% above the one obtained in 2007 (514.1 million metric tons).  Regarding the area, an increase of 8.3% was observed compared to 2007, when 6.7 million hectares were reaped.   The estimated production for 2008 was near the one of this year, with, respectively, 77,304 kg/ha and 76,594 kg/ha.  The survey shows the interest by products which derive from this crop, especially ethanol and sugar, being that alcohol is more interesting currently due to the increase in the consumption in the domestic and in the foreign market, encouraged by the environmental topic regarding the use of renewed energies.

In 2007, harvest of grains must reach 133.2 million metric tons

The estimate of November of the national harvest of grains (which already had more than 95% of its harvest concluded) shows a production of 133.2 million metric tons, 13.8% more than in 2006 (117.0 million) and only 0.1% lower than in the previous month.   It was the major harvest already reaped in the country, surpassing the previous record, of 2003, when 123.6 million metric tons were reaped.  Comparatively to the month of October, three products stood out regarding the estimated changes:  wheat in grain (+1.1%), beans in grain 3rd harvest (-3.4%) and potatoes 3rd harvest (-11.0%).  The negative change observed for potatoes 3rd harvest was a consequence of adjustments in the final data of the state of Goiás, which, compared to October, had decreases of 37.8% (area) and 1.4% (productivity) in 2007, with, respectively, 3,280 ha and 40,120 kg/ha.

In Goiás, beans in grain 3rd harvest also had decrease in November, being  9.5% in the obtained production (141 thousand metric tons) and 2.8% of average yield (2,610 kg/ha).  The harvest is already concluded for both products (potatoes and beans).  Unfavorable climatic conditions, combined with the risk of planting these crops were the responsible for the negative changes.  In the case of wheat, there was increase, as a consequence of the adjustments in the index of productivity of Rio Grande do Sul, from  2,020 kg/ha to 2,098 kg/ha.  In a planted area of 838 thousand hectares, a production of 1.8 million metric tons is expected, 113.7% above the reaping of 2006, when the harvest was seriously affected by adverse climatic conditions. The harvest is already in an advanced stage, with 90% already reaped.

Sixteen crops had positive change in the estimate of production compared to 2006

Among the 25 analyzed products, sixteen had positive change in the estimate of production compared to 2006: herbaceous cotton in seed (33.7%), peanuts in husk 2nd harvest (18.2%), potatoes 1st harvest (22.7%), potatoes 2nd harvest (5.7%), almond cocoa (11.2%), sugar cane (12.9%), onions (10.9%), barley in grain (32.9%), beans in grain 1st harvest (13.7%), orange (1.2%), cassava (2.2%), corn in grain 1st harvest (15.8%), corn in grain 2nd harvest (35.7%), soybeans in grain (11.2%), wheat in grain (61.1%) and triticale (1.8%).  With negative change: peanuts in husk 1st harvest (10.2%), rice in husk (3.7%), oats in grain (36.1%), potatoes 3rd harvest (12.8%), coffee in grain (16.0%), beans in grain 2nd harvest (21.1%), beans in grain 3rd harvest (4.3%), castor beans in berry (0.9%) and sorghum in grain (10.9%).

With the harvest of the summer products already closed in the great producing centers of grains, it is awaited only the conclusion in the Northeast.  As a consequence of the agricultural calendar, this region is still present in some crops to be reaped.  Currently, are in a process of monitoring only the crops of 2nd and 3rd harvests, as well as the winter harvests, standing out wheat, main product of the winter harvest.  Although having faced problems of drought, it presents production of 3.998.072 metric tons, showing a significant increase of 61.1%, compared to the one obtained in the previous harvest, seriously damaged due to climatic adversities, such as drought,  in the beginning of the cycle of the crop, high temperatures in winter and frost in August and in the beginning of September.

Stocks of grains (first semester of 2007)

The results of the Survey of Stocks² of the first semester of 2007 show that the storage system of agricultural products functioning in the country had decrease of 1.7% in the number of active establishments compared to the second semester of 2006.  In the end of the first semester of 2007 the system had 9,075 active establishments, 42.1% in the South; 24.0% in the Southeast; 22.0% in the Central West; 8.5% in the Northeast; and 3.4% in the North Region.

The capacity of storage units of conventional, structural and inflatable warehouses was 81,523,766 cubic meters, being that, from this total, slightly more than 70.0% were located in the South and Southeast.  The grain and bulk warehouses summed 49,725,980 metric tons of total capacity, being that the Central West Region had 49.6% of this storage capacity while the South, 34.7 %.  The silos for grains had 40,639,247 metric tons of total capacity, with 53.1% of this total in the South, followed by the Central West and Southeast Regions, with 27.2% and 14.8%, respectively.

The major stocks registered in June 30, 2007 were the ones of soybeans in grain (21,801,131t), corn in grain (8,749,344t), rice in husk (4,138,083t), wheat in grain (1,844,936t) and coffee in grain (939,491t).  Comparing the existing stocks in June 30, 2006, the ones of coffee, corn and soybeans had a growth of 20.0%, 6.5% and 1.2%, respectively.  The stocks of rice in husk and wheat fell 5.0% and 10.9% respectively.

Notes

1 - In consideration to the demands of users, the forecasts now published, were conducted with the collaboration of the National Company of Supply (Conab), department of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply – MAPA, initiating a process of harmonization of official estimates of the harvest for the main Brazilian crops.  In this process, the two institutions sum their resources and their efforts willing to guarantee the most accurate and correct information of monitoring of the harvest that the Brazilian government can afford, coordinating progressively methods, sources, period of examination, dates and hours of publishing. For it, they continue to count on the inestimable and permanent contribution of federal, state and municipal public organizations, and other institutions which generate agriculture information and with monitoring and evaluation operated through the System GCEA, Groups of Coordination of Agriculture Statistics in each federative unit and by the CEPAGRO – Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agriculture Statistics.

2 - The Survey of Stocks provides statistics information about the volume and spatial distribution of the stocks of basic agricultural products and about the units where its storage occurs.  Its registry, formed by government owned companies, private companies, co-operative associations and government and private co-ownership companies, has approximately 11,100 establishments.  Commercial establishments, industrial establishments and storage service which have storage units with total capacity equal or more than 400 m3 or 240 metric tons as well as supermarkets and agricultural establishments with total capacity equal or more than 2,000 m3 or 1,200 metric tons are investigated.