IBGE conducted in October, the first forecast of planted area or areas to be planted, as well as the production for the harvest 2008, in the Southeast, South, Central West Regions and in the states of Rondônia, Maranhão, Piauí and Bahia.  The production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2008 was estimated in 137.084 million tons, 2.9% major than the result obtained in 2007.  For the estimate of the 2008 national production, the results obtained in the regions and states were the survey was conducted were summed to the values found in a projection, constructed with information of previous years for the winter crops (oats, rye, barley and wheat), and of products of the second and third harvest, which due to the agricultural calendar do not still have the first estimates, besides the other states where the survey of harvests was not made.  The data of the survey of the forecast represented 81.7% of the expected national production, while the projections which were made answered for 18.3% of the total value.

First forecast of 2008 harvest showed increase of 3.3% in the area to be reaped.

This initial evaluation of the area to be reaped in 2008, when considered the eleven products investigated, was 47.1 million hectares, higher 3.3% to the area harvested this year, which was 45.6 million hectares.  In absolute terms this growth equaled to 1.5 million hectares.

Among the eleven sectors investigated, seven had positive change in relation to the harvested area in 2007: herbaceous cotton in seed (4.4%); peanuts in husk 1st harvest (2.5%); rice in husk (3.0%); sugar cane (7.9%); cassava (0.8%); corn in grain 1st harvest (4.6%); and soybeans in grain (2.0%).  With negative change were potatoes 1st harvest (3.2%); onions (1.4%); beans in grain 1st harvest (0.6%); and tobacco leaf (3.3%).

In relation to expected productions, the following products had positive change: herbaceous seed cotton (8.6%); peanuts in husk 1st harvest (3.1%); rice in husk (6.8%); sugar cane (8.1%); beans in grain 1st harvest (0.7%); corn in grain 1st harvest (5.3%); and soybeans in grain (1.8%).  With negative change were potatoes 1st harvest (1.9%); onions (1.1%); tobacco leaf (1.4%); and cassava (0.4%).

Seed Cotton 

In this first forecast, a production of seed cotton of 4.157 million tons was expected, against 3.828 million tons obtained in 2007, a growth of 8.6%.  This gain of production was directly related to the increase of the planted area and of the expected yield, especially in the states of Bahia (13.6% in area and 6.9% in the expected yield) and Mato Grosso, main producer, with 52% of the national production (3.7% in area and 2.4% in expected yield).  The factor which most contributed to this increase was the maintenance of prices of the product, in the domestic as well as in the foreign market. In Mato Grosso, the majority of producers formed groups, directing the production towards the foreign market, through future contracts, obtaining, in this way, better results.

Rice (in husk)

In the case of rice, in this first national evaluation for 2008, the expected production is 11.977 million tons, 6.8% above the one obtained in 2007.  This increase was mainly influenced by Rio Grande do Sul, main producer, with increase of 11.2% in the expected production and 10.6% in the planted area. Mato Grosso, main producer of the Central West, also stood out with a decrease in the planted area (8.6%). This occurred due to the preference of the producers for the planting of soybeans, which is easier to sell and by the reduction of the clearing of timbers and major inspection of environmental departments.

 
Beans (in grain) 1st harvest

In the first forecast or the national water harvest of beans in 2008,  a production of 1.813 million tons is expected, which shows a growth of only 0.7% compared to the production obtained in 2007 (1.799 million tons).  The result occurred due to problems faced by producers, mainly in the South Region, where the lack of rain did not allow the planting in several areas in the recommended period.

 
Corn (in grain) 1st harvest

The expected production of corn 1st harvest is 38.261 million tons, 5.3% above the one observed in 2007, due to the increase in the planted area in the great producing states. The good quotation that the product is maintaining contributed to this scenario. This occurred due to the lower supply of the major world producer (United States) which is directing part of its harvest to the manufacturing of ethanol.

Soybeans (in grain)

Regarding soybeans, the forecast for 2008, of 59.322 million tons, showed increase of 1.8% compared to the volume obtained in 2007.  The area to be harvested showed an increase of 2.0%, while the average yield showed a decrease of 0.2%, being respectively, 21.047 million hectares and 2,819 kg/ha.  In this first forecast it could be observed a delay in the planting, due to drought in the producing areas.  The quotations of soybeans are reaching levels above the ones obtained in previous harvests.

Producers are also concerned with the phenomenon La Niña, which is being expected by specialists in climatology.  Together with the delay of harvesting, it may produce changes in the final results.  Until now, the implementation of crops is being made with a good technological level.

In 2007, the harvest of grains shall increase 13.9%

The estimate of October for the national harvest of grains showed a production of 133.3 million tons, 13.9% major than in 2006 (117.0 million tons) and only 0.1% lower than the estimate of the previous month.  Rice and corn 1st and 2nd harvests and soybeans, the three main products of the harvest, summed 121.0 million tons, representing 90.8% of the national production.

The cultivated area in 2007 had a small decrease (0.2%), being 45.5 million hectares.  Among the main cultivated products, soybeans had the major reduction of area, approximately 1.4 million hectares.  In the Major Regions, the production of grains, in tons, was distributed in the following way: South (59.9 million); Central West (44.0 million); Southeast (15.9 million); Northeast (10.1 million); and North (3.5 million).           

In October, two products stood out with changes in the estimate of production compared to September: barley in grain (+2.2%) and wheat in grain (-1.7%).  The result observed in barley in grain occurred due to the reevaluation in the estimate of Rio Grande do Sul, due to the inclusion of new areas, now considered by the LSPA.  In the case of wheat in grain, the reason for the decrease of the average yield in almost all the producing states was consequence of climatic problems, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, where strong rain and meteorological phenomenon such as windstorm and hail, determined the decrease of the productivity of the crop.

Sixteen harvests had positive change in the estimate of production compared to 2006

Among the 25 surveyed products, 16 had positive change in the estimate of production compared to 2006: herbaceous seed cotton (32.8%); peanuts in husk 2nd harvest (18.2%); potatoes 1st harvest (22.6%); potatoes 2nd harvest (4.1%); almond cocoa (9.6%); sugar cane (13.1%); onions (4.3%); barley in grain (33.3%); beans in grain 1st harvest (14.1%); orange (1.2%); cassava (2.7%); corn in grain 1st harvest (15.7%); corn in grain 2nd harvest (35.9%); soybeans in grain (11.3%); wheat in grain (59.3%); and triticale (2.7%).   The products with negative change were: peanuts in husk 1st harvest (10.2%); rice in husk (2.5%); oats in grain (35.7%); potatoes 3rd harvest (2.0%); coffee in grain (16.0%); beans in grain 2nd harvest (19.9%); beans in grain 3rd harvest (0.9%); castor beans (berry) (2.2%); and sorghum in grain (14.3%).

With the harvest of summer products already closed in the great producing centers of grain, only the conclusion in the Northeast is awaited.  Due to the agricultural calendar this region still has some crops to be reaped.  Currently is occurring the following-up of the 2nd and 3rd harvests crops as well as the winter crops.   Wheat, main product of the winter harvest, although facing problems with drought, had a production of 3,953,223 t showing a significant increase of 59.3% compared to the one obtained in the previous harvest.  It is worth remembering that the previous harvest was seriously damaged by climatic adversities such as drought in the beginning of the cycle of the crop, high temperatures in the beginning of winter and frosts between the end of August and beginning of September.