The first harvest estimate for this year, according to the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA 1), indicated positive change in the following products, in relation to 2006: herbaceous seed cotton (27.1%), 1^st - harvest beans in grain (39.8%), 1^st - harvest corn in grain (12.9%), 2^nd - harvest corn in grain (10.6%), and soybeans in grain (8.0%). With negative change, the highlight is rice in husk (-3.5%).

In this first evaluation of the national harvest of grains 2 for 2007, the estimated production is 127,9 million tons, 9.7% more than the amount obtained last year (116,6 million tons).

The subdivision of this expected volume among the major regions, in absolute figures and percent figures compared to the previous harvest, is: North, 3,6 million tons (8.2%); Northeast, 11,8 million tons (23.7%), Southeast, 16,0 million tons (1,2%), South, 54,9 million tons (13,7%) and central West, 41,7 million tons (5,0%).

The first estimate for herbaceous cotton in 2007 points to a total of 3,7 tons produced, showing significant increase (21.7%) in relation to the amount obtained in 2006 (2,9 million tons). This increase is mainly caused by the recovery of internal and external markets. Mato Grosso, the main national producer, which has 53.0% of the Brazilian production of cotton, expects to harvest 1,9 million tons, 36.7% more than in 2006.

Considering rice crops, in this first analysis, there is decrease of 3.5%. This tendency had also been detected in the first months of October and December 2006, due to the low prices of the latest negotiation. In a planted area of 3,0 million hectares, the expected production is 11,1 million tons, versus 11,5 tons harvested in 2006. The main producing states, Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso, may obtain 5,9 million tons (-12.6%) and 817 thousand tons (13.4%), respectively.

For 1^st – harvest beans, a production of 2,2 million tons is expected, that is, 39.8% more than the amount obtained in 2006 (1,6 million tons). In an area of 2,5 million hectares to be harvested, the productivity may reach 869kg/ha. The main reason for this increase in the production of beans was the positive performance of prices in the previous negotiation. The main producing states, Paraná, Bahia and Minas Gerais, are expected to have increments to the figures of the previous harvest: 26.3%, 223.7% and 35.2%, respectively, with productions of 235,6 thousand tons and 237,0 thousand tons.

Considering the crops of 1st harvest corn and soybeans, there are increments in the expected production – 12.9% and 8.0%, respectively. The amount of corn estimated for 2007 is about 35,5 million tons; the expected amount of soybeans is 56,4 million tons. The productivity levels are 3,778 kg/ha for corn and 2,726 kg/ha for soybeans. Among the main producing states of 1^st harvest corn, can be highlighted: Mato Grosso, Paraná, minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul, São Paulo, Santa Catarina and Goiás. The main producers of soybeans are Mato Grosso, Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais and Bahia. It is worth mentioning that the climatic conditions are favorable to the development of crops, and that the harvest of early crops has already begun.

As for 1st –harvest corn, the first production estimate is 12,2 million tons, 10.6% more than the amount harvested in 2006 (11,0 million tons), due to the current recovery of the price of this product. The major increment is expected in Mato Grosso, which has a volume of production of 4,8 million tons, that is, 39.5& of the national production.

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¹Monthly Survey of Estimate and Monitoring of the harvests of the main agricultural products, with information obtained through the Municipal and/or Regional Commissions, organized at state level by the Directing Groups of Agricultural statistics, and then evaluated, at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission s formed by representatives of IBGE and of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

²Cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, oats, soybeans, rye, barley, sunflower seeds, sorghum, wheat and triticale.