The rate maintains tendency to increase, considering the seasonally adjusted month/previous month comparison. Nominal revenue, in the same type of analysis, increased by 1.73%. In the series without seasonal adjustment, for volume of sales were 10.10% over September/05; 5.83% accumulated in the year and 5.49% accumulated in the least 12 months. In terms of nominal revenue, there was increase of 10.87% over the same month in the previous year, of 7.40% in the comparison January-September/05 and of 7.63% of the rate accumulated in the last 12 months.

The 2.06% change in the volume of sales observed in September, in the seasonally adjusted, series reflects the continuation of the rising trend observed since the month of August. Still considering this series, which has been calculated for four of the eight activities which form the sector, there were three positive results: Furniture and household appliances, with a rate of 3.90%; Textiles, apparel and footwear (2.53%); Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (1.35%). On the other hand, Fuels and lubricants decreased by 0.56%. The segment of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and accessories, which forms the extended retail trade, changed by 0.20% over the previous month.

In the comparison September 06/September 05, there was increase of the volume of sales in seven of the eight retail activities. The results ordered according to the importance of the activity to the formation of the overall rate are: 11.04% for Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco;

27.18% for Other articles of personal and domestic use; 25.67% for Office, computer and communication equipment; 4.14% for Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles and cosmetics; 2.58% for Textiles, apparel and footwear; 1.05% for Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles; and -6.48% for Fuels and lubricants. As for nominal revenue, the rates were 10.87% in relation to the same month in 2005; 7.40% accumulated in the same period of the previous year and 7.63% accumulated in the last 12 months (Tables 1 and 2).

MAIN IMPACTS

In September, the activity Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco, showed increase of 11.04% in the volume of sales in relation to the same month in the previous year, accounting for more than half of the overall retail rate (Table 3). This performance reflected, in general terms, the improvement of the average income of workers, as well as the increase of employment with a formal contract, whose changes in relation to September/05 were 2.7% and 5.6%, respectively, according to IBGE1’s Monthly Employment Survey. With this result, this activity reached, in the first nine months of the year, a rate of 7.66% in relation to the same period in the previous year, having accumulated increase of 6.07% last 12 months.

The segment of Furniture and household appliances represented, in September, the second major impact on the result of retail trade, by having a change of 20.61% in the volume of sales in comparison with September last year. Having been specifically benefited by the favorable conditions to consumer credit, and by the fall of prices resulting from the presence of imported goods, this activity has had increase rates of 9.60% and 10.13%. These figures represent the rates accumulated in the year and in the last 12 months, respectively.

The activity Other articles of personal and domestic use, the third major impact on the formation of retail trade, changed by 27.18% in terms of volume of sales, compared to figures in September 2005. Encompassing department stores, glasses shops, sporting goods stores, toy stores and others, this activity has been influenced by favorable conditions to consumer credit conditions and also by the evolution of the salary mass. As a consequence, in the period January-September, it grew by 16.34% over the same period in 2005, with a rate of 16.34% accumulated in the last 12 months.

The volume of sales of the activity Office, computer and communication equipment, which was the fourth biggest positive impact on retail trade results, increased by 25.67% in September, compared to the same month last year. The increase of this activity resulted from the fall of prices (especially of computer science products) and from the improvement of income. In terms of accumulated rates, the results obtained in the first nine months of the year and in the last 12 months, were, respectively, 34.74% and 43.43%. 

The activity Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic, perfumery articles and cosmetics, the fifth biggest contributor to the overall retail rate, had a result of 4.14% in comparison with September 2005, having accumulated, from January to September, 3.89% and, in the last 12 months, 5.24%. One of the factors contributing to this result may have been the climatic instability, a problem which has affected especially the South and the Southeast Regions of the country.

The segment of Textiles, apparel and footwear, had a positive rate for the second consecutive month, with change of 2.58% in relation to the same month in the previous year. This result places the activity as the sixth in order of contribution to the overall rate. It may be explained as a consequence of the encouragement to the purchase of imported products, whose prices have fallen due to the higher value of the exchange rate. In terms of the accumulated indexes, the rates were 1.69%, for the first nine months of 2006 in comparison with the same period in the previous year, and 3.84% in the last 12 months.

The segment of Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles, completes the group of positive contributions to the overall retail trade rate, with change of 1.05% in the volume of sales over September/ 05. Because of changes of 0.94% accumulated in the year, and of 0.71% accumulated in the last 12 months, this activity was the one which has obtained most positive results in 2006. 

The activity Fuels and lubricants has reached the twentieth consecutive month with negative figures for volume of sales, with change of -6.48% in the comparison September 06/September 05. This figure points to stability in relation to last month: this fact can be seen as a consequence of the fall of fuel prices in the last few months. In terms of accumulated results, the rates were 9.22% for the period January-September, and -8.96% in the last 12 months.

IN THE QUARTER

From the second to the third quarter of 2006, retail trade practically maintained the same rhythm of growth, by having change rates of 6.27% and 6.16%, respectively for volume of sales (Table 4). By activity, however, significant changes can be observed, with a better performance of: Furniture and household appliances, from 7.34% to 10.64%; Other articles of personal and domestic use (from 17.04% to 19.14%); Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic, perfumery articles and cosmetics (from 2.88% to 3.23%); and Fuels and Lubricants (from -11.73% to -7.67%). There was reduction of growth between the second and the third semester in the activities Hypermarkets, supermarkets,food products, beverages and tobacco (from 10.01% to 7.81%); Textiles, apparel and footwear (from 1.36% to -0.55%); Office, computer and communication equipment (from 28.10% to 26.51%); and Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles (from 4.23% to 1.05%).  Extended retail trade had significant increase of the levels of performance, with expansion of the change rate of the volume of sales from 4.34% in the second quarter, to 8.24% in the third one. This occurred due to the expansion of sales of both Vehicles and motorcycles, parts and accessories (from 1.19% to 11.86%), and of Construction material (from -0.52% to 12.32%).

ANALYSIS BY AREA

Considering the analysis by area, 26 of the 27 Federative Units increased their volume of sales in the September 06/September 05 comparison, with the major changes occurring in Acre, with a rate of 44.5%; Roraima (40.49%); Amapá (25.96%); Alagoas (23.19%) and Maranhão (17.81%). The only fall occurred in Mato Grosso (-14.32%) – Graph 3. Concerning the participation in the formation of retail trade, the highlights, in order, were: São Paulo (9.71%); Minas Gerais (15.65%); Rio de Janeiro (9.26%); Rio Grande do Sul (8.98%) and Paraná (9.73%).

Still in terms of Federative Units, the seasonally adjusted results for volume of sales showed, in the month/previous month comparison, 24 states with positive changes and 3 with decreasing figures. The main increases occurred in Acre (5.57%); Ceará (5.25%); Goiás (5.16%); Federal District (4.96%) and Sergipe (4.07%). Falls occurred in Rondônia (-2.39%), Amapá (-1.62%) and Tocantins (-0.17%).

For extended retail trade, formed by retail trade and the activities Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and accessories and Construction Material, the changes observed in the comparison September 06/September 05 were 10.33% (volume of sales) and 10.53% (nominal revenue of sales). The results accumulated in the year and in the last 12 months were 5.35% and 4.81% for volume of sales and 7.19% and 7.07% for nominal revenue of sales, respectively.

With reference to volume of sales, there was 10.07% increase in the activity Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and accessories, in relation to the previous month. In terms of the results accumulated in the last 12 months the changes were 5.28% and 4.13%, respectively. The segment Construction Material completed the fifth consecutive month, with change of 13.80% over September 2005, reflecting the measures favoring construction. In terms of accumulated results, the rates were 3.74% from January to September, and 1.22% in the last 12 months.

By Federative Unit, still in relation to extended retail trade, the highest rates relative to volume of sales were those of Acre (65.21%); Rondônia (45.30%); Roraima (41.48%); Amapá (38.43%) and Amazonas  (32.71%). In terms of the impact on the overall result of the sector, the highlights were São Paulo (6.48%); Minas Gerais (14.84%); Rio de Janeiro (9.49%); Paraná (12.38%) and Santa Catarina (11.36%).