In 2006, the expected production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds (cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, oats, rye, barley, sunflower seeds, sorghum, wheat and triticale) is about 117,694 million tons. In July, it was 118,020 million tons ¹. The estimate for this year is 4.55% higher than in 2005 (112,574 million tons). Corn and soybeans, accounting for about 80% of the national grain production, had, in absolute figures, the major gains in relation to 2005: 1^st harvest corn, 4, 356.927 tons (16.05%); 2^nd harvest corn 2,720,574 (34.17%) and soybeans 1,289,527 tons (2.52%).

In terms of planted area, estimated as 45,666 million hectares, it was observed that, in August, there was decrease of 4.00% in comparison with last year. Among the main products investigated, in absolute figures, decrease of planted area was most significant for the following crops: wheat, 689,460 ha (-29.23%), rice, 951,374 ha (-24.28%), and soybeans, 925,160 ha (-4.03%). The harvesting of summer crops is almost finished. At this time of year, only the 2^nd and 3^rd winter harvests are being monitored in the field.

The positive situation of 2nd harvest corn remains unchanged, with 34.17% increase over the 2005 total production. The highlights are the increments in the production of the states of Paraná (66.40%), Mato Grosso (7.31%), Mato Grosso do Sul (99.09%) and Goiás (42.68%), as a consequence of the good performance and of the good conditions of crops.

For wheat, the main winter product, the expected production is 3,369,499 tons, pointing to significant reduction of 27.67%, in relation to 2005 – a consequence of the reduction of planted area (25.03%) in all the producing states. This reduction is attributed to some specific factors: the low price of the product in the internal market, the difficulty to commercialize the latest crops, and the subsequent loss of capital by producers, which, together with the restricted credit, caused the low technological level of the harvest, leading to the susceptibility of the crops.

The other winter products, such as oats, barley and triticale, when analyzed in comparison with the results for last year, show decrease f 4.10%, 17.94% and 13.72%, respectively, as a consequence of reduced planted areas resulting from the low prices of the previous harvest.  

In absolute figures, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds by Major Region is distributed as follows: South, 49,525 million tons (42.08%); Central West, 39,973 million tons (33.11%); Southeast, 15,996 million tons (13.59%); Northeast, 9,843 million tons (8.36%); and North, 3,357 million tons (2.86%).

In relation to July, 2nd-harvest corn increases by 3.12%, but wheat is damaged by dry period (-6.22%)

In the comparison August/July, the highlights area the changes in the estimates for eight products: oats (-4.53%), barley (-3.70%), 3^rd harvest beans (1.36%), 1^st harvest corn (-0.51%), 2^nd harvest corn (3.12%), soybeans (-0.24%), wheat (-6.22%) and triticale (-7.11%).

Concerning 1st harvest corn 9-0.51%) and soybeans 9-0.24%), the falls resulted from correction of data after the end of the harvest in the main producing centers.

The production of 2nd harvest corn increased (3.12%) because of new the reevaluation of estimates for the state of Minas Gerais, and especially of Paraná, where harvests started sooner and production surpassed the initial expectations.

For 3rd harvest corn, the increment (1.36%) was a consequence of the adjustments of data of the Minas Gerais and of the average yield in Paraná.

Considering oats (-4.53%), Barley (-3.70%) and triticale (-7.11%), crops which are found mainly in the South Region, the decline was a consequence of changes in the data of Paraná. For wheat, the main winter crop, the 6.22% decrease reflected losses caused by the dry period in Mato Grosso do Sul and in Paraná.

In comparison with 2005, exectation for increase of the harvest of 13 products and for decrease of the harvest of 12 other ones

Among the main products investigated by the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), there were positive changes in the harvest estimates for 13 products, in comparison with results in 2005: 2^nd-harvest peanuts in husk (4.08%), 2^nd-harvest potatoes (9.22%), 3^rd-harvest potatoes (2.84%), coffee in grain (19.95%), sugarcane (7.65%), onions (5.55%), 1^st harvest beans  (9.20%), 2^nd-harvest beans (32.35%), oranges (0.04%), cassava (7.53%), 1^st harvest corn (16.05%), 2^nd-harvest corn (34.17%) and soybeans (2.52%). There were negative changes in terms of: herbaceous seed cotton (-23.56%), 1st harvest peanuts in husk (-12.75%), rice in husk (-12.86%), oats (-4.10%), 1^st harvest potatoes (-7.24%), cacao beans (-12.28%), barley (-17.94%), 3^rd-harvest beans (-6.70%), castor beans (-36.51%), sorghum in grain (-0.55%), wheat (-27.67%) and triticale (-13.72%).

For coffee, besides the 19.95% increase of production, increase of 18.80% of the average yield in relation to 2005 was observed. Production of 2,559,791 tons was expected, which represents 42,66 million 60Kg-sacks of processed grains. Contrary to what was expected, the hot period in the beginning of the year did damage the crops. Considering the state of Minas Gerais, the main producer (about 51% of the total), the harvest is close to 70% of the overall amount expected, with significant increment in the municipalities of Três Pontas e Monte Carmelo.

For sugarcane, the estimated production for 2006 is 455,280,463 tons. The increase of the demand for fuel alcohol in the external market and the expansion of exports to some countries which have used gasoline mixed with dry alcohol – in order to reduce the emission of gases which cause the greenhouse effect and to reduce the costs of petrol barrels – have led to the construction of new plants in the country. In São Paulo, however, the major producer, the lack of rain in some areas caused the interruption of activities, which may result in delay of the harvesting process.

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¹ It is important to mention that the LSPA monthly estimate for production of grains is subject to adjustments from one month to the other, due to new data which may be only available at a later time. Thus, for July this year, the initial estimate, released by IBGE in August, was 118,094 million tons.