The estimate for 2005 regarding the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds is approximately 113.744 million tons of grains, 0.24% above the one of May, which was 113.468 million tons. The difference of more than 277 thousand tons comes mainly from the harvest of wheat, which, between the two months, recorded an increase around 5%.  The national harvest expected for this year is  4.71% below the one obtained in 2004 (119.369 million tons).

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) of June, changes in the production estimates compared to the month of May of three products stand out: beans in grain 3rd harvest (10.34%), corn in grain 2nd harvest (1.22%) and wheat in grain (5.47%).

The increase observed of beans in grain 3^rd harvest occurred due to information provided by Goiás which recorded increases of 9% in planted area, 10% in production and 0.3% in productivity. The recovery of the prices combined with satisfactory climatic conditions for the development of the harvest is the main cause of these increases. 

In relation to corn in grain 2^nd harvest, the expansion in the estimate of production for June results from recent information from Bahia, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás, which presented increases in planted area as well as in the index of productivity. In these three states, the climatic conditions are normal for the development of the harvests.

Regarding wheat, a positive change in the estimate of production of Paraná (9%) was recorded in June. In Rio Grande do Sul, nevertheless, the estimate remained unchanged. The two states account for 91% of the national production of this cereal and in both the behavior of the climate is considered normal, especially for the harvests in course.

Estimate of production in relation to the harvest of 2004

Among the twenty products analyzed, nine presented positive change in the estimate of production of June in relation to the previous year: potatoes 3^rd harvest (2.78%), cacao beans (7.62%), sugar cane (0.86%), beans in grain 1st harvest (0.97%), beans in grain 2nd harvest (1.56%), beans in grain 3^rd harvest (9.05%), castor beans (62.25%), cassava (11.03%) and soybeans (2.92%).

The following products presented negative change herbaceous cotton in seed (-0.46%), rice in husk (-0.58%), potatoes 1^st harvest (-1.49%), potatoes 2nd harvest (-14.56%), coffee in grain (-12.45%), onions (-5.94%), orange (-2.95%), corn in grain 1^st harvest (-11.12%), corn in grain 2^nd  harvest (-25.58%), sorghum in grain (-25.71%) and wheat in grain (-9.82%).

In comparison with 2004, the Northeast region, which accounts for 9.00% of the total production in the present harvest, presented an increase of 9.53%. The North, Southeast and Central West regions, responsible, respectively, for 3.67%, 16.04% and 37.10% had in the same order, increases of 17.23%, 3.41% and 5.54%.  The South region, which accounts for 34.19% of the total production, presented a reduction of 20.37% in relation to the previous year.

With the harvest of the summer products almost finished in the great producer states of the country, presently, winter products, such as wheat in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul and the second and third harvests mainly of corn and beans, are the ones that have been most frequently surveyed. Among the products of the first harvest, the best performances were observed in castor beans and soybeans; and the greater decreases, in the production of corn 1st and 2nd harvests (-11% and -26% respectively).

Harvests of corn and wheat will be lower than in 2004

In the analysis of June we can observe for corn 2nd harvest a planted area of 2.8 million hectares, a production of 7.9 million tons and a productivity of 2,870 kg/ha. When compared to the previous harvest, the indicators are lower, respectively, 16%, 26% and 12%. The production of corn in 2005 hence is lower by 2.8 million tons.

The major differences are observed in the South (-43%) and in the Central West (-23%). In Paraná, major national producer, the expected production is approximately 1.9 million tons, 43% lower than the figure obtained in 2004 (3.3 million tons). The harvest has been already started in the state. It must be pointed out that this decrease could had been lower if there had not been lack of raining in the beginning of planting period in the main producing regions.

The harvest of wheat estimated for 2005 is approximately 5.2 million tons, 10% lower than the one in the previous year, when the country obtained a volume of 5.7 million tons – both significantly below the national consumption of the cereal - which is around 10.5 million tons.

In Paraná, where the harvest of wheat is more significant and represents 58% of the produced volume in Brazil, the expected production for this year is 3.0 million tons, slightly above (0.58%) the harvest obtained in 2004. Regarding the performances of the harvests, it can be observed that in the two most important producing regions of the state (North/ West), the climatic conditions are normal, with the volume of rain and temperature adequate for the growing of this crop.

The same climatic situation is observed in Rio Grande do Sul, which expects a production of approximately 1.6 million tons. This figure is  21% lower than the one obtained in the previous year, when the harvest was 2.0 million tons. This difference between the harvests of 2004 and 2005 has two reasons. The first one is market prices, which still are below than the minimum price expected for wheat in the present harvest of 2005; the second, the significant financial problems of the wheat producers due to the  losses caused by the climatic problems of the summer harvest.

With the exception of some areas in the state of Paraná, and in the Northeast Region of the country, in a general way, the climatic conditions in the period were favorable.