With the data obtained in February, it can be estimated that the national production of the harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds (cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, oats, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) will reach a volume of grains amounting 120.951 million tons, surpassing in 1.57% the harvest of 2004, which totaled 119.085 million tons. In relation to the data of January 2005, there was a decrease of 10.09%, when it was estimated a production of 134.522 million tons.

It is informed, nevertheless, that this estimate still involves some simulations, mainly regarding the winter harvests (wheat, oats, rye and barley), and the second and third harvests of some products which, due to the agriculture calendar, do not present now a first estimate of production.

Situation of crops in February in relation to January 2005

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production of February, in relation to January, stand out the changes in the estimates of production of five products: rice in husk (-3.08%), beans 1st harvest (-8.75%), castor beans (22.24%), corn in grain 1st harvest (-11.48%) and soybeans (-13.23%).

The negative variation of 3.08% in the estimate of production for rice was due to the losses verified in Rio Grande do Sul, where climatic problems occasioned a diminishment in the productivity of the product. With a revenue of 5,421 kg/ha (–7.73%), it is awaited for this State a production around 5.415 million tons.

Regarding beans 1st harvest, it can be observed a reduction of 8.75% in the awaited production for 2005 (1.6 million tons). The main losses are observed in the states of Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul and Bahia, with reductions of 3.95%, 31.03%, 15.73% and 42.89%, respectively. The prolonged droughts together with the bad distribution of rain, were the main causes of this negative scenario concerning the harvest of beans in these States.

Regarding the harvest of castor beans, it can be observed in February, a growth of 22.24% in the production for this year, which is a consequence of the government incentives concerning the product. In all the States where castor beans are surveyed, increases are observed: Ceará (3.08%), Bahia (26.52%), Minas Gerais (10.51%) and São Paulo (13.14%). The awaited production for 2005 is 186 thousand tons, compared to 138 thousand tons obtained in the previous year.

Due to the drought that is observed mainly in the States of the South Region, soybeans (-13.23%) as well as corn 1st harvest (-11.48%) present falls in their productions for the harvest 2005. Regarding soybeans, the major losses of production were verified in Rio Grande do Sul (-65.49%), Santa Catarina (-30.58%) and Paraná (-23.75%). Regarding corn, it presents the following reductions: -56.29% in Rio Grande do Sul; -30.68% in Santa Catarina and –6.18% in Paraná. After these losses, it is being estimated that the soybeans will have a production of 54.794 million tons and corn 1st harvest, 28.162 million tons.

Situation of crops in February 2005 in relation to the obtained production in 2004

Among the analyzed products, the ones that present a positive variation in the estimate of production in relation to the previous year are the following: herbaceous cotton (4.29%); beans in grain 1st harvest (12.04%); castor beans (34.81%) and soybeans (11.32%). Rice in husk (-1.23%); beans in grain 2nd harvest (-2.33%); beans in grain 3rd harvest (-1.01%); corn in grain 1st harvest (-9.33%); corn in grain 2nd harvest (-7.69%) and sorghum (-4.96%) present negative results.

Due to the negative climatic scenario, specially, in the States of the South Region (Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná and Santa Catarina), and in Mato Grosso do Sul, the comparison of this production estimate with the first forecasting (published in December 2004), unveils significant changes in the course of the last months. Between December 2004 and February 2005, the loss of the national harvest was around 14 million tons of grains. It is worthwhile to remember that the losses that happen as a consequence of the negative effects of the climate have not ended, since it hasn’t been yet calculated the total loss of the States mentioned above. In Mato Grosso do Sul, field works are being finished. The first results show a loss above 1 million tons only in the harvest of soybeans that together with corn and beans 1st harvest were the ones that more suffered the consequences of these atypical droughts. Nevertheless, it is necessary to await the future surveys because with an analysis closer to the period of the obtained productions, it will be possible to make a final balance of the losses in the harvest 2005.

In the general estimate, among the losses observed up to now, the major highlight can be observed in the harvest of soybeans which, between December 2004 (when the last forecast of the harvest of this year was published) and February 2005, lost around 8.5 million tons. Only in Rio Grande do Sul, where the loss with this crop was more significant, a reduction of 5.4 million tons was verified in the period. In December, the forecasted productivity for 2005 in Rio Grande do Sul was 2,275 kg/ha while regarding February, it was around 811 kg/ha, very low for a traditional State in the production of this legume.

LIVESTOCK RESULTS (4th quarter of 2004)

Animal Slaughter

Cattle

In the 4th quarter of 2004, 6.682 million cattle were slaughtered, indicating an increase of 13.14% compared to the 4th quarter of 2003 and fall of 3.57% compared to the 3rd quarter of 2004.

Considering the year of 2004, August, July and December were the months of major slaughtering of animals. The number of cattle slaughtered in 2004 was 26.010 million, an increase of 20.17% compared to 2003.

São Paulo is the state that presents the major number of animals slaughtered under sanitary inspection, whether municipal, state or federal. The state of Mato Grosso do Sul (the principal Brazilian herd in terms of number) comes in second place, followed by Mato Grosso and Goiás.

Hogs and Pigs

In relation to hogs and pigs, 5.399 million animals were slaughtered, which represents a fall of 6.04% compared to the 4th quarter of 2003 and of 1.69% compared to the 3^rd quarter of 2004. There were reductions in the carcass weight: -4.80% compared to the 4th quarter of 2003 and –2.74% compared to the 3^rd quarter of 2004.

In the year of 2004, 21.622 million hogs and pigs were slaughtered, a fall of 4.13% compared to the year of 2003.

In relation to the Federative Units, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná and Minas Gerais were the principal States regarding the slaughtering of hogs and pigs in 2004, and were also the states that have the greatest number of these animals.

Pullets

935.283 million poultry were slaughtered, representing increases of 11.07% compared to the 4th quarter of 2003 and 5.21% compared to the 3rd quarter of 2004. The increase in the carcass weight was of 13.84% compared to the 4th quarter of 2003 and of 3.59% compared to the 3^rd quarter of 2004.

In the year, 3.548 billion poultry were slaughtered, which means an increase of 10.82% compared to the previous year. The main States that slaughtered pullets in 2004 were the following: Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul.

Acquisition and Industrialization of Milk

In the 4^th quarter of 2004, the inspected industrial establishments acquired 4.048 billion of liters of crude milk, chilled or not chilled, which represents an increase of 8.80% compared to the 4^th quarter of 2003 and of 14% compared to the 3rd quarter of 2004.

Regarding the industrialized milk, it was registered an output of 4.028 billion liters, an increase of 8.76% compared to the 4th quarter of 2003 and of 13.96% compared to the 3rd quarter of 2004.

In the year, the quantity of acquired milk reached 14.502 billion liters, while the output from the establishments totaled 14.442 billion liters.

In the comparison with 2003, there was an increase of 6.42% in the total of acquired milk and 6.44% regarding the industrialized milk. The principal States that acquired milk in 2004 were Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Mato Grosso and Rio Grande do Sul.

Leather acquisition

In the 4th quarter of 2004, 8.684 million leather pieces were acquired in the Country indicating increases of 11.94% compared to the same quarter of the previous year and fall of 5.09% compared to the 3^rd quarter of 2004. Regarding the tanned leather, it was recorded a volume of 8.732 million pieces. There was an increase of 13.59% compared to the 4th quarter of 2003 and decrease of 3.75% compared to the 3rd quarter of 2004.

In 2004, 35.053 million leather units were acquired, being 35.044 million units obtained in the national market and 8.680 thousand imported.

The main States that acquired leather in 2004 were São Paulo (9.233 million); Rio Grande do Sul (5.074 million); Mato Grosso do Sul (3.815 million); Goiás (3.225 million) and Mato Grosso (3.147 million).

Production of hen’s eggs

In the fourth quarter of 2004, 488.211 million dozen eggs were produced in Brazil. This result unveiled an increase of 4.89% in relation to the 4^th quarter of 2003 and fall of 0.16% compared to the 3^rd quarter of 2004. In 2004, the production of hen’s eggs increased 5.07% in relation to 2003.

Still regarding the year of 2004, the Quarterly Survey of Hen’s Eggs, which investigates the establishments with 10,000 or more laying hens, indicates that São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina are the main producing states.