In December 2004, the industrial production changed 0.6% compared to November, in the series without seasonal influence. In the comparison with December 2003, there was a growth of 8.3%, higher than the ones of November (7.8%) and October (3.3%). In the year, the index also remains in 8.3%. The production of the sector in the last quarter of 2004 overcame in 0.9% the one of the previous period and was 6.3% higher than the result observed in the fourth quarter of 2003.

In December 2004, the industrial production presented a positive change of 0.6% compared to November, in the series without seasonal influence. This positive change has a generalized profile, since it reaches 16 of the 23 groups of industry that have seasonally adjusted series and all the categories of use. In the analysis by groups of industry, the highlights are the following: petroleum refining and alcohol production (7.6%), metal product (7.6%), food products (1.2%), automotive vehicles (1.5%) and pharmaceuticals (4.3%). Among the seven segments with fall in this indicator, we can mention the following: electronic material and communication equipment (-7.5%) and machines and equipment (-3.2%). The indexes by categories of use show that the sector of semi durable and non-durable consumer goods, with an increase of 3.4% in relation to the previous month, records its higher result in 2004. In this month, the production of durable consumer goods (2.9%) and capital goods (1.6%) also grows, while intermediate goods presents the most moderate rate (1.2%).

The segment of durable consumer goods leads growth in comparison with December 2003

In the comparison with December 2003, the growth was 8.3%. This performance is observed in 21 of the 27 surveyed industrial activities, in the 4 categories of use and in 57 of the 66 sub sectors surveyed. The favorable performance of automotive vehicles (29.2%), food products (11.3%) and petroleum refining and alcohol production (14.6%) was determinant in the global expansion of the industry. In the first group of industry, the highlights were cars and heavy trucks. In the other two segments, the items of greater impact are products that derive from the sugar cane, crystallized sugar in the food products industry and alcohol in the sector of petroleum refining and alcohol production. Altogether, these three groups of industry answer for more than half (53%) of the overall rate of 8.3%.

In the analysis by categories of use, the leadership remains with the segment of durable consumer goods, where the growth in relation to December of 2003 reaches 17.0%. The sector of capital goods (12.3%) also is higher than the overall average, followed by intermediate goods (7.5%) and semi durable and non-durable consumer goods (7.1%). The magnitude of these indexes reinforces the idea that the sales of the end of the year were relevant in the industrial activity in the month of December.

Industry grows in all the quarters of 2004

The quarterly based indexes validate that the industrial sector sustained, during 2004, positive rates, even when compared with the last months of 2003, a period in which the production was maintaining a growing trend. After the growth of 6.5% in the first quarter of 2004, it was observed acceleration in the next two quarters, when the rates remained in 10.0% and 10.4%. In the last quarter of 2004, compared to the same period of 2003, the industry grew 6.3%. In this period, the production of durable consumer goods grew 15.0% and the production of the sectors of capital goods and intermediate goods recorded, both, increase of 6.9%. Below the national index remained only the performance of the category of semi durable and non-durable consumer goods (4.2%). It is in this last quarter that a smaller dispersion among the growing rhythm of the categories of use is observed with the behavior of the sector of semi durable and non-durable consumer goods remaining nearer the overall average. In relation to the third quarter of 2004, in the seasonally adjusted series, we can observe that only the category of semi durable and non-durable consumer goods (1.7%) grows above the total of the industry (0.9%). The two segments, leaders of the expansion in the course of 2004, capital goods and durable consumer goods, present rates of 0.5% and –1.0%, respectively. The production of intermediate goods shows a slight fall in the period (-0.6%).

In 2004, the main highlights were automotive vehicles and machines and equipment

After the rates of 1.6% in 2001, 2.7% in 2002 and 0.1% in 2003, the industrial sector reacts and reaches in 2004 a growth of 8.3%. The broad increase of production covered 26 activities, 4 categories of use and 67 of the 76 sub sectors surveyed. The performances with major impact in the overall result of the industry were automotive vehicles (29.9%), machines and equipment (16.1%), food products (4.1%), other chemical products (7.0%) and electronic material and communication equipment (17.8%). This group of industries has a dynamic related to the areas of durable consumer goods and capital goods, which are the leaders of the recent expansion. Also, it benefited from the dynamism of the agribusiness export sector, as is the case of the food products industry (meat preserves and processing) and of other chemical products (herbicides). In the indexes by categories of use, the major rate remains with consumer durable goods (21.8%), as a consequence of the generalized growth in its sub sectors, specially: cars (27.6%), mobile telephones (31.2%) and household appliances (18.7%). The improvement in the credit conditions and a major stability in the labor market levered the domestic sales of durable consumer goods. Another factor that contributed for this behavior was the increase in the exports, particularly in the automotive sector. According to the National Association of the Manufacturers of Automotive Vehicles (ANFAVEA), there was an increase of 17.8% in the number of units exported of light vehicles in the last year.

The segment of capital goods also presented growth above the national average, increasing 19.7%. The indexes by sub sectors show a generalized investment enlargement, especially in the production of construction machines and equipment (38.0%), transport machines and equipment (25.6%), capital goods for industrial use (16.1%) and capital goods of mixed use (14.8%). Another indication of growth in the investments is related to the result of imports of capital goods which, according to the Bureau of Foreign Trade (Secretaria de Comércio Exterior) (SECEX), increased 17.2% in the year. Also we can observe in this category the positive influence of the exports, whose growth attained 54.0% in 2004.

The production of the sector of intermediate goods grows 7.4% and has as its highlight the performances of the sub sectors elaborated industrial inputs (5.7%) and parts and accessories for industrial transport (22.6%). It stands out the high index recorded in the sub sector of basic industrial inputs (16.2%), boasted, mainly, by the production of iron ore. Although positive, the observed results in the production of construction inputs (5.7%) and packaging (2.9%) remained below the rate of the total of the category. The negative result that stood out in this category is the fall of 3.8% observed in the sub sector of basic fuels and lubricants (petroleum and natural gas), its only negative result in the time series initiated in 1992.

The segment of semi durable and non-durable consumer goods remained with a rate of 4.0%, reverting the trend of fall observed in 2003 (-3.9%) and reaching its best result since 1996. This result is related to the gradual recovery of the overall wages during the year of 2004, influenced, mainly, by the increase in the number of employed persons. The rates were positive in all the sub sectors of this category, specially, food products and elaborated beverages for domestic consumption (5.7%), whose main responsible items are beers and draft beer, and soft drinks. The more moderate increase remained with the sub sector of fuels (1.0%).

In synthesis, the results of the end of the year validate that the industrial sector is sustaining the rhythm of production, with the indexes of the fourth quarter increasing 6.3% compared to the same period of 2003, and 0.9% in relation to the immediately previous quarter. In this type of comparison, that involves the seasonally adjusted index series, we can observe that the sector closes the third consecutive quarter with growth, accumulating expansion of 6.9% between the first and last quarters of 2004. In this same comparison, durable consumer goods (11.8%) and capital goods (8.5%) were the categories of use of greater expansion, while intermediate goods (5.3%) and semi durable and non-durable consumer goods (3.9%) grew below the industrial average.

In the comparison between the last quarter of 2004 and the previous one, the expansion of 0.9% is lower than the ones observed in the second (3.4%) and third quarters (2,5%). It passes to be led by the segment of semi durable and non-durable consumer goods (1.7%), the only one with increase above the industrial average.