The tenth estimate of IBGE for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds (cottonseeds, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, oat, rye, barley, sunflower seeds, sorghum, wheat and triticale - hybrid between wheat and rye), based on October's data, indicated that the production may reach, in 2004, a volume of 119.337 million metric tons. This number is 3.47% inferior the production from 2003 (123.632 million metric tons).

In absolute terms, production shows the following distribution: South Region, 48.924 million metric tons; Central -West, 39.829 million metric tons; Southeast, 17.625 million metric tons; Northeast, 9.506 million metric tons; and North, 3.452 million metric tons.

Compared to September 2004, beans - 2nd crop and wheat dropped

In comparison with the harvest in September 2004, changes of two products were highlighted in October: beans - 2nd crop (-2.96%) and wheat (-1.21%).

In beans - 2nd crop (-2.96%), the main falls were in the states of Alagoas and Bahia (the main producer), where the climate was not very favorable during the crop development.  Regarding Bahia, harvest has already finished.

The negative change of wheat was influenced by Rio Grande do Sul, whose 2.16% drop, because phytosanitary problems (plant health), drove down productivity forecast, which is now of 2,015kg/ha, against 2,092kg/ha in September.

Compared to 2003, upland cottonseed, paddy rice and sorghum increase

Among the analyzed products, three presented positive change in the output estimate in relation to the previous year: upland cottonseed (62.34%), paddy rice (29.23%) and sorghum (21.72%). Negative changes were seen in: bean seed - 1st crop (-11.80%), bean seed - 2nd crop (-5.98%), bean seed - 3rd crop (-10.04%), corn grain 1st crop  (-10.38%), corn grain 2nd crop (-18.91%), soybean grain (-4.42%) and wheat (-1.11%).

The harvest for the main products has already finished. Just part of the winter products, in special, wheat from Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul have not been harvested yet. Since almost 85% of the wheat planted area have been harvested, Paraná will have finished in the beginning of December. The estimate for the production in this state might reach the order of 3.016 million metric tons, 2.43% lower than that of 2003. As to Rio Grande do Sul, production and productivity show reductions of 5.73% and 10.56%, reaching only 2.2 million metric tons and 2.015 kg/ha.

Expectations for 2005 indicate growth of 2.27% in planted area and production of 134.0 million metric tons

The first estimates of the planted area or the area to be planted for cereals, legumes and oilseeds is of 48.436 million hectares, 2.27% bigger than that of 2004. As to the production for the same group of products, it is expected for 2005 a sum of 134.042 million metric tons, 12.32% over 2004. But because of the agricultural calendar, for the Federation Units that have not reported the initial estimates yet, the information on the 2004 harvest was repeated for 2005.

Among the analyzed products, two showed positive change in comparison to the planted area in 2004: peanuts in the shell (0.05%) and soybeans (5.44%). The negative change came from: upland cotton (-5.48%), paddy rice (-1.56%), bean seed - 1st crop (-11.37%) and corn grain 1st crop (-4.66%).

From this list of products, three presented positive change in the amounts expected: bean seed - 1st crop (4.18%), corn grain 1st crop (4.94%) and soybeans (28.23%). Presenting negative changes are: upland cotton (-5.48%), peanuts in the shell (-6.05%) and paddy rice (-4.73%).

In this first projection for 2005, the crops of upland cotton show reduction of 5.48% in comparison to the production obtained in 2004, staying at 3.422 million metric tons. In the initial estimate for upland cotton for next year, Mato Grosso, the main producing state, shows a tendency of decrease in the area to be planted (-18% or about 387 thousand hectares) as well as in production (-16%). However, in case changes in the product's rates in the international market occur, this situation may be reversed, since, in this state, cultivation begins in December and goes on until the first week of February.

With the exception of Bahia, which has not done its first survey yet, in other producing states, expectation as to the planted area or the area to be planted is: 57 thousand hectares for Minas Gerais; 86 thousand hectares for São Paulo; 50 thousand hectares for Paraná; 60 thousand hectares for Mato Grosso do Sul and 152 thousand hectares for Goiás.

As to crops of rice, this first estimate for the 2005 harvest shows a planted area or area to be planted  of 3.713 million hectares, 1.56% smaller than 2004.  In this area, estimates are that the harvest volume will reach 12.706 million metric tons (-4.73%). This drop is explained by the product's lower prices, by weather conditions (lack of rain) and by the low water level of the reservoirs of the rice crops. These three aspects influenced producers' decision in relation to planting. For example, Rio Grande do Sul produces about 50% of the rice, cultivated in Brazil, in the irrigated system. In contrast with the previous year, when there was a relevant increase in the agricultural border and renewal of the pastures, the state of Mato Grosso, the second national producer of upland rice, also presents lower estimates for 2005: -2.68% in the planted area and -4.20% in the estimated production.

In the case of the beans - 1st crop, the initial information about the 2005 harvest indicates decrease of 11.37% in the planted area and increase of 4.18% in production and of 6.43% in productivity. The reason for the decrease in the planted area is the product's low prices practiced in 2004.

About corn - 1st crop, an increase of 4.94% in production is observed in the forecast for the 2005 harvest, amounting to 32.626 million metric tons. The planted area is of 9.052 million hectares and the estimated productivity (3.604 kg/ha) is 5.29% higher than the previous year. The low prices, in addition to the high costs in production, are the strongest reasons for the decrease of the planted area.

Even with the fall in prices in the domestic and foreign market and the high costs of the input, forecast for soybean crops is of growth of 28.23% in production, expected for in the main producing states: Minas Gerais (10%), São Paulo (6%), Paraná (24%), Santa Catarina (43%), Rio Grande do Sul (68%), Mato Grosso do Sul (62%), Mato Grosso (21%) and Goias (29%).  Since the price for corn, soybeans main opponent, is not very attractive, producers of soybeans find themselves without a planting alternative for 2005. As soybeans present different characteristics of sales (in both international and in forward contract scopes) and better liquidity, they continued the upward trend. So, for the 2005 season, production might reach 63.085 million metric tons, 28% bigger than the 2004 harvest. The estimated area is of 22.703 million hectares and productivity, in normal conditions, should reach 2.779kg/ha.

As to the climatic conditions, in October, in the first two weeks there was a delay in rains, and that led to late planting of some crops. However, after this period, precipitations normalized and planting followed as planned.