In the comparison with September 2003, the retail trade of the Country grew 13.54% in the nominal revenue and 8.87% in the volume of sales. It is the tenth consecutive increase. As to the 27 Federation Units, 25 had growth in the volume of sales. The exceptions were Roraima and Piauí.

Despite the growth in the group of activities surveyed in relation to August (as indicated in Graph 1), the change in the volume of sales in the cumulative index of the year continues to decrease, with a rate of 9.32% over the first nine months of 2004. Nevertheless, the cumulative result for the last 12 months continues to ascend, with a change of 6.72%.

Regarding the nominal revenue, the cumulative rates are leaning toward stabilization, attaining in this month a level of 12.06% in the cumulative index of the year and 11.70% in the cumulative index of the last 12 months. 

Among the states, the only negative results were from Roraima (-2.14%) and Piauí (-1.27%)

In relation to the volume of sales, 25 of the 27 Federation Units posted positive results in the September 04/ September 03 relation. The largest growth rates came from Rondônia (25.88%); Acre (24.00%); Amazonas (23.20%); Mato Grosso (21.83%); and Maranhão (19.95%). The two negative rates in the sector came from Roraima (-2.14%) and Piauí (-1.27%). Conversely, the states with the biggest positive contributions to the overall retail rate (8.87%) were São Paulo, with a growth of 8.79% over September/03; Minas Gerais (9.55%); Rio Grande do Sul (8.38%); Rio de Janeiro (5.68%), Paraná (11.14%); and Santa Catarina (13.07%).

All the five selected activities, whose series start in 2000, recorded growth in the volume of sales in relation to September 2003: Furniture and domestic appliances (20.32%); Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food, beverages and tobacco (9.17%); Fabrics, apparel and footwear (4.05%); Fuels and lubricants (4.03%); and Vehicles, motorcycles and parts (15.44%).

In this activity group, those which are more affected by credit conditions, such as Furniture and domestic appliances and Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, decreased their monthly growth rates, but the latter is not included in the composition of the global retail rate (Table 1). However, in terms of quarterly results, Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food, beverages and tobacco stand out as the only ones out of the five segments surveyed that have not decreased the growth pace since 2000 (Table 3).

In the set of the new activities surveyed – selected by the sample defined in 2003 - there was a rise in the volume of sales in the September 04/September 03 relation in Office, computer and communication equipment and material (11.40%); Other articles of personal and domestic use (4.86%); Pharmaceutical and medical goods, cosmetic and toilet articles (4.73%); and in Construction material (3.09%). Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery was the only segment to post drops (-4.10%). On the other hand, all these segments reduced their growth rates in September, except for Office, computer and communication equipment and material (Table 2).

In September, the segment of Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food, beverages and tobacco was once more the main responsible for the retail trade performance, presenting growth in the volume of sales from 3.84% in  August to 9.17% in September. With such a rise, the cumulative performance rates of the activity moved from 5.83% to 6.19% in the cumulative rate of the year, and from 3.07% to 4.11% in the cumulative index over the last 12 months. The quarterly results point out a growth in the pace of the activity in the third quarter of the year: a change of 7.75% against 6.85% of the second quarter (Table 3).

The specific sector of Hypermarkets and supermarkets, besides presenting an increase in the growth pace in relation to August, recorded slightly higher results than the group's, with change rates for the volume of sales of 9.69% over September 2003; 6.41% in the cumulative index from January to September; and of 4.26% in the cumulative result over the last 12 months.

The segment of Furniture and domestic appliances expanded its volume of sales in 20.32% in the comparison with September 2003. Despite the good performance in 2004, this is the third month in a row in which the sector signals growth in the monthly indicator (Graph 4). This movement reflected upon the cumulative rate of the year, which between August and September moved from 29.69% to 28.56%. The trend was also confirmed by the quarterly indicators, whose rate moves from 34.91% to 27.09% between Q2 and Q3 (Table 3). In the cumulative rate of the last 12 months, the rate of Furniture and domestic appliances keeps growing (23.87%).

In September, the activity of Fuels and lubricants, after two months of a drop in the pace of growth, offsets the deceleration with a 4.03% increase in the volume of sales over September 2003 (Graph 6). However, the evolution of the cumulative indicator of the year keeps decreasing, from 6.00% in the January-August period to 5.78% in the cumulative index up to September. Conversely, in the cumulative index over twelve months, the rate kept rising, ranging from 2.81% in August to 3.87% in September. In addition, in the third quarter the activity presented the lowest performance of the year: 3.04% of change in the volume of sales over the same period a year ago, after posting 7.54% and 7.01% in the first and second quarters of 2004, respectively (Table 3).

In September, the change of 4.05% in the volume of sales of Fabric, wearing apparel and footwear also offsets the reduction of the performance rates, started four months ago in this activity (Graph 5). However, this result was not enough to keep in the third quarter the level of growth obtained in the second quarter. Actually, in terms of quarterly results, this was the activity with the greatest slowdown in the expansion pace of the volume of sales, with the rates decreasing from 12.75% in the second quarter to 3.61% in the third. There is also a slight reduction in the cumulative rate of the year, which moved from 6.27% in August to 6.03% in September. Bu the cumulative index over 12 months showed recovery: from 3.18% to 3.72%.

From the segment of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces comes the second best performance in terms of growth rate (15.44%), nevertheless it was the activity that mostly contracted in terms of monthly performance – from 32.09% in August to 15.44% in September in the volume of sales (Graph 7). This slowdown caused a drop on the expansion pace of the cumulative indicator in the year, which moved from 19.23% in August to 18.77% in September. However, as in other activities, the result of the last 12 months kept rising, accumulating growth of 15.17% up to September, almost up 2 percentage points in comparison with August.  Just as Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food, beverages and tobacco, the retail rate of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces improved its performance in the third quarter of the year, with rates of 22.84% against 20.78% of the second quarter (Table 3).

Among the five new activities surveyed since 2003, that of Office, computer and communication equipment and material - whose monthly change of the volume of sales rose 3.87% in August to 11.40% in September-, was the one with the highest performance rate. In spite of it, the cumulative indicator in the year keeps going down, with a change rate of 23.32% to 21.77% between August and September.

After registering the highest performance rate in August (13.20% in the volume of sales in relation to August/03), Other articles of personal and domestic use presented a significant fall in the growth pace in September (4.86%). This result kept the downward trend in the growth rates of the cumulative index of the year. In the relation January-September 04/January-September 03, the growth of the activity reached 17.14% against 18.74% in the period January- August.

 In the comparison with September 2003, Pharmaceutical and medical, orthopedic goods, cosmetics and toiletries expanded the volume of sales in 4.73% in September this year. In the cumulative indicator of the year, the growth was of 9.30% in relation to the same period a year ago. Despite the positive performance, this segment has been presenting a pace decrease both in the monthly indicator and in the cumulative indicator of the year (Table 2).

The sector of Construction material, with arise in the volume of sales in September of 3.09% over the same month a year ago, was the other activity that strongly reduced its growing pace in relation to last month's result (8.16%). Due to the negative results in the beginning of the year , the cumulative rate in  the first nine  months of the year remained virtually low (2.68%) and held stable in the comparison with the cumulative result until August (2.63%).

At last, the volume of sales of Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery repeated last month's negative behavior, from -1.49% in August to -4.10% in September. As a result, the cumulative indicator in the year also increased its drop: from -1.75% in the January-August period moved from -1.97% in the first nine months of 2004.

Responsible for almost 50% of the gross revenue of the national retail trade, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo inverted, in September, the pace of the volume of sales behavior: Rio decreased its growth from 8.60% in August to 5.68% this month, whereas São Paulo increased its rate in the same period (from 5.65% to 8.79%). In the cumulative index of the year, the retail trade in Rio de Janeiro, with rates of 7.33%, remained with a lower growth than São Paulo's, which is at 9.04%. It is worth mentioning that the two states hold the cumulative results of the year virtually stable. However, they keep expanding the performance rate in the cumulative indicator over the last 12 months: 4.08% in Rio de Janeiro and 6.31% in São Paulo.

Two activities practically determined the difference in the performance monthly rates between the two states in September: Fuels and lubricants, with a drop of 5.47% in the volume of sales in Rio de Janeiro and rise of  7.79% in São Paulo; and Fabric, wearing apparel and footwear, which registered rates of -3.18% in Rio and of 6.17% in São Paulo.