The industrial production remained stable (0.0%) from August to September, in the series without seasonal influences, breaking a sequence of six consecutive months with positive results. In the comparison with September 2003, the total of the industry indicates an increase of 7.6% and the indicator accumulated from January to September reaches 9.0%. The annualized rate, indicator accumulated in the last twelve months, continues to grow, passing from 6.9% in August to 7.2% in September.

The indexes of September show a slight settlement in the industrial rhythm, after six months of consecutive growth. Nevertheless, the accumulated comparison shows, from January till September, a profile of generalized growth (9.0%), where among the 76 industrial sub-sectors observed in the survey, 65 indicated increase in the production.

The stability in the production from August to September 2004 shows the equilibrium between the activities that expand the production (12) and between those activities that present reduction (11) among the 23 groups of industry that have seasonally adjusted series. Among the industries that presented growth, the more important changes considering the total result of the industry were verified in food products (3.1%), beverages (5.6%) and petroleum refining and alcohol production (1.8%). On the other hand, the main negative pressures were observed in tobacco (-28.1%), machines, electrical equipment and materials (-6.1%) and other chemical products (-1.2%).

By categories of use, negative indexes are observed in capital goods (-2.5%), durable consumer goods (-1.9%) and intermediate goods (-0.2%), while semidurable and nondurable consumer goods (1.5%) present the only positive rate. The capital goods sector recoils after growing in the two preceding months, July and August, a period in which it accumulated an increase of 3.3%. The reduction of 1.9% observed in durable consumer goods happens after six consecutive positive results, that caused a growth of 17.2% in the comparison August 04/ February 04. Regarding intermediate goods, the discreet fall verified in September (-0.2%) is the first negative rate in the year in this type of comparison. The segment of semidurable and nondurable goods grew 1.5%, and recovered from the two consecutive negative results observed in July and August. It was the highest growth rate in this year recorded by this indicator.

Considering the quarterly comparisons, the indicators are positive in the third quarter

Despite the reduction in the industrial rhythm, from August to September, the indexes of the quarterly moving average kept, although in a moderate way, an ascending trend in all the categories of use. It can be observed that semidurable and nondurable goods presented in this index an interruption in the trend of fall.

In the quarterly comparisons, the indexes for the third quarter are positive, vis-à-vis the same period of 2003 (10.5%), and also vis-à-vis the immediately previous quarter (2.6%). In this last comparison, that considers the seasonally adjusted index series, consumer durable goods present the highest rate (5.8%), followed by intermediate goods (3.0%) and capital goods (2.8%). The only segment with a rhythm below the industrial average was semidurable and nondurable consumer goods that recorded only 0.3% between the second and third quarters of this year.

We call attention to the fact that the general industry reaches the second consecutive quarter with a positive performance, that resulted in an increment of 6.1% in relation to the first quarter of this year. In this period, the overall production of the industry grew mainly because of the performance of durable consumer goods (13.7%) and capital goods (9.5%), of which the rhythms were significantly above the average.

The result of the monthly indicator of September, an expansion rate of 7,6%, was considerably below the one observed in August (13.4%). Besides the influence of a smaller number of days worked in September 2004, this deceleration is a consequence of a comparison with the last months of 2003, that was a period in which the production was starting its ascending trend. The indexes by categories of use show that the reduction in the growth rhythm is specially relevant in durable consumer goods, where the growth rate passed from 37.0% in August to 18.3% in September. This change is clearly observed in the production of household appliances (from 33.4% to 18.7%), and automobiles (from 48.1% to 27.8%). Also in the category of capital goods there is a reduction in the rhythm, with the monthly index passing from 32.8% in August to 19.8% in September.

Still in the comparison September 04/September 03, the performance of intermediate goods (6.4%) was influenced by the favorable behavior of several of its sub-sectors, specially: elaborated industrial inputs (4.9%), basic industrial inputs (13.6%) and parts and accessories for industrial transport (23.1%). Negatively, the main impacts came from elaborated fuels and lubricants (-1.6%) and basic fuels and lubricants (-1.9%). The segment of semidurable and nondurable consumer goods presented a positive behavior in all its sub-sectors, with the main impact verified in elaborated food products and beverages (4.9%), followed by semidurable goods (6.0%).

In the indicator accumulated for the period January-September, the overall rate of 9.0% results from positive performances in all the 27 activities, with the exception of pharmaceuticals that recorded null growth. The main positive contribution in the overall result was observed in automotive vehicles (30.2%), followed by machines and equipment (19.0%) and electronic material and communication equipment (28.3%). Regarding the products, the highlights in these industries are the items: automobiles and trucks; domestic refrigerators and motor graders; and television sets and mobile telephones; respectively.

Still in the accumulated indicator in the year, the production of intermediate goods recorded the rate of 7.4%, a rhythm close to the total of the industry. With increment of 5.9%, the sub-sector of elaborated industrial inputs was the one with the major impact in the category, standing out the production of herbicides and cellulose. We have to mention the 21.9% of expansion in the manufacture of parts and accessories for transport equipment, showing the growth in the production of the automobile industry. The semidurable and nondurable consumer goods (3.9%) had its result influenced mainly by elaborated food products and beverages (5.7%), in which highlights were the items beer and soft drinks.