The ninth estimate of the IBGE for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds (cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor bean, corn, soybeans, oats, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale), based on the data of September, shows that the production may reach a volume of 119.522 million tons in 2004. This amount is 3.22% lower than the production obtained in the previous year (123.632 million tons).

Among the Major Regions, in absolute terms, the production is distributed as follows:South: 49.000 million tons (41%), Central West: 39.854 million tons (33%), Southeast: 17.576 million tons (15%), Northeast: 9.647 million tons (8%) and North: 3.466 million tons (3%).

SITUATION OF THE CROPS IN SEPTEMBER IN COMPARISON TO AUGUST 2004

In the comparison of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) of September in relation to July, the changes in two products stand out: corn 2^nd harvest (+1.34%) and wheat in grain (-1.38%).

Regarding corn 2^nd harvest, the change in the production estimate for September derives mainly from the states of Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso, where increases of 4.61% and 13.63%, respectively, were observed as a consequence of new evaluations. In Mato Grosso, second major producer of corn 2^nd harvest, a production of 2.9 million tons was obtained. In 2003, the volume was of 2.2 millions.

Regarding wheat, that presented a fall of 1.38% in relation to August, the negative change relates to the state of Paraná, where the climatic conditions (lack of rain) caused a loss of 2.31% in productivity and 2.49% in production. Santa Catarina and Minas Gerais presented important increments in production compared to the previous month: 22.63% and 17.50%, respectively.

SITUATION OF CROPS IN SEPTEMBER OF 2004 IN RELATION TO THE PRODUCTION OBTAINED IN 2003

Among the analysed products, four presented a positive change in the production estimate vis-à-vis the previous year: seed cotton (herbaceous) (62.36%), rice in husk (29.42%), sorghum (19.86%) and wheat (0.10%); six presented negative change: beans in grain 1^st harvest (-10.55%), beans in grain 2^nd harvest (-3.12%), beans in grain 3^rd harvest (-10.02%), corn in grain 1^st harvest (-10.26%), corn in grain 2^nd harvest (-18.65%) and soy in grain (-4.42%).

A production of approximately 10.817 million tons is expected for corn 2^nd harvest. This value is 18.65% smaller than that of the harvest of 2003 (13.298 million tons). In the two greatest producers, Paraná and Mato Grosso, the product has been already harvested, with respectively, 3.481 million tons and 2.892 million tons. Paraná presents a fall of 42% and Mato Grosso presents an increment of 14% in relation to 2003.

Concerning wheat, for this year, it can be observed a harvest similar to the one obtained in the previous year, 6.029 million tons in 2003 and 6.036 million tons in the current harvest, with only 0.10% of increase between one harvest and the following one. This production is still significantly below the national consumption of this grain which is presently around 10.5 million tons. In Paraná, where the production is the most significant of the country, representing 50% of the total production, a volume of 3.039 million tons is expected, 1.7% smaller than in 2004. The harvest is ongoing, with 58% of the area destined to the product already harvested. The lack of raining, in the months of August and September, caused losses of productivity in the Central West and Southwest regions of the state.

In the next month the first forecast of the harvest 2004/2005 will happen in the South, Southeast and Central West regions and also in the states of Bahia, Piauí and Maranhão.