In 34 years, the Brazilian population almost doubled in relation to the 90 million inhabitants of the 1970 decade. It increased in 10 million people only between 2000 and 2004. In 2050, there will be 259.8 million Brazilians and our expectation of life will be 81.3 years, the same as the Japanese´s today. But the population´s aging is increasing: in 2000, the group aged between 0 and 14 years represented 30% of the Brazilian population, while the group aged 65 years and over was only 5%; in 2050, both groups will be equal at 18%. And more: according to the Revision 2004 of the IBGE Population Projection, the number of Brazilians will stop increasing in 2062.In January 2004, the Brazilian population exceeded 180 million inhabitants. This is one of the outcomes of the Revision 2004 of the Population Projection carried out by IBGE. This is the first projection to incorporate the birth and mortality rates calculated from the 2000 Census (released in December last year), as well as the death statistics from the Civil Registry 1999-2001 and PNAD 2001. The demographic studies showed that families are having even less children: in 1960, the average number was six children per woman, dropping to 2.89 in 1991 and to 2.39 in 2000. The average number estimated for 2004 is 2.31 and, for 2023, 2.01 children per woman, a mere reposition of generations. The population will continue to grow, though at even lower rates: from 3% per year between 1950 and 1960, the rate dropped to 1.44% per year in 2004. It will drop to 0.24% in 2050 and finally to zero in 2062, when the Brazilian population will begin to shrink.

We would be 262 million Brazilians today if the population growth remained at the same pace as in the 1950s. However, the fertility rate decreased ever since, due to the changes that took place in the Brazilian family, like the entrance of women in the labor market and the dissemination of the contraceptive methods. By registering an average of 2.39 children per woman in 2000, Brazil ranked in the 75th position among the 192 countries or areas compared by the United Nations.

A surplus of six million women

The proportion between male and female population has been gradually decreasing in Brazil. In 1980, there were 98.7 men per 100 women, a proportion that dropped to 97% in 2000 and will drop to 95% in 2050. In absolute figures, the female surplus will change from 2.5 million in 2000 to 6 million in 2050. On the other hand, the difference between male (66.71 years) and female (74.29 years) life expectancy reached 7.6 years in 2000.

The progress of the medicine and the improvement of general life condition of the population have contributed to increase the life expectancy of the Brazilians, which rose 17 years between 1940 and 1980 (from 45.5 to 62.6 years, respectively). In 2000, this indicator reached 70.4 years and should reach 81.3 years in 2050, virtually the same level of Japan today (81.6 years), the first country in the ranking. Brazil is ranked in the 89th position among the 192 countries or areas monitored by the United Nations. The world average for life expectancy at birth was 65 years in 2000 and should reach 74.3 years between 2045 and 2050.

Infant mortality remains high

Infant mortality has been decreasing in Brazil since the mid-1940s, due to mass vaccination campaigns, the dissemination of antibiotics and, lately, to prenatal tests, breastfeeding campaigns and the community health agents, among other measures, governmental or not.  In 1970, there were approximately 100 deaths per each thousand babies aged under one year born alive. This rate dropped to 30 per thousand in 2000, a level still high when compared with neighboring countries: 21 per thousand in Argentina, 12 per thousand in Chile and 15 per thousand in Uruguay. Brazil ranks the 100th position among the 192 countries or areas monitored by the United Nations.

Less youngsters, more senior citizens

The combined drop of the fertility and mortality rates has been producing a change in the age structure, by relatively decreasing the younger population and increasing the elder population. In 1980, the Brazilian population split equally between those below and above 20.2 years old. This median age will be exactly 40 years in 2050.

Another important comparison showed that 30% of the Brazilians were aged between zero and 14 years and those aged over 65 years represented 5% of the population in 2000. In 2050, these two age groups will be equal: each one will represent 18% of the Brazilian population. Such figures reveal the even greater importance of public policies towards social security, in face of the growing number of retired individuals against those in regular activities. Also important are the health policies towards senior citizens. If, on the one hand, there were 1.8 million people aged 80 years and over in 2000, on the other hand, there can be 13.7 million in 2050.

Rio de Janeiro population exceeds six million

Manaus surpassed Recife and advanced from the ninth to the eighth position among the ten most populated Brazilian municipalities. Borá remained as the Brazilian municipality with the smallest number of inhabitants (818).

IBGE released the Estimates of Resident Population in the 5,560 Brazilian municipalities in compliance with Law no 8443, of July 16, 1992. Compared with last year, 72.6% of the Brazilian municipalities increased the population, 27.2% of them decreased the population and only nine (0.2%) did not record any change.

Law no 8443, of July 16, 1992, determines that IBGE releases its annual municipal population estimates until August 31, and that these data could be questioned in up to 20 days by any interested party. On October 31, IBGE is going to send the list of municipal populations to the Brazilian Court of Audit.

It can be noticed by the 2004 projections the slight increase of municipalities with less than five thousand inhabitants (from 1,327 to 1,359). There are also three more municipalities between five thousand and ten thousand inhabitants than in 2003. The biggest growth was in the number of municipalities between 20 thousand and 50 thousand inhabitants: from 964 in 2003 to 1,010 in 2004. Brazil also has three more municipalities - Feira de Santana (BA), Cuiabá (MT) and Sorocaba (SP) - between 500 thousand and one million inhabitants and one more municipality - Campinas (SP) - with population over one million.

Article 102. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics Foundation (IBGE) or any similar entity will publish in the Official Gazette of the Union, until August 31 every year, for the purposes established in the incise VI of the first article of this law, the relation of the population by State and Municipality.

1st Any interested party, within twenty days of the publication, could file reasoned appeals to IBGE Foundation, which will decide conclusively.

2nd IBGE Foundation will send the aforementioned relation to the Brazilian Court of Audit until October 31 every year.