The new estimate of IBGE, based on the data of June, indicates that the total production of  cereals, legumes and oilseeds¹ can reach 118.803 million metric tons, in 2004. This result is 3.91% below the harvest of 2003 (123.632 million metric tons). In the comparison with May's estimate, which was of 119.6 million metric tons, June's estimate present a low of 0.64%.

Among the Major Regions, the production was: 48.971 million metric tons in the South; 39.355 million metric tons in the Central-West; 17.266 million metric tons in the Southeast; 9.880 million metric tons in the Northeast and 3.331 million metric tons in the North.
    

In relation to the previous month, upland cotton and wheat increase, corn grain 2^nd crop and soybeans decrease

In the comparison with the harvest of May 2004, the four products that stood out were: upland cotton (3.31%); corn grain 2^nd crop (-1.64%), soybeans (-0.93%) and wheat (1.14%).

In June, the change of 3.31% in the estimated production of upland cotton came especially from the areas of Goiás and Mato Grosso, where the weather was favorable to the development of crops. In those areas, the crop is being harvested and almost finished. Both areas posted the productivity of, respectively, 3,382 kg/ha and 3,704 kg/ha.

The decrease of 1.64% in the production of corn 2^nd crop estimate is due to the new information from Paraná, which moved from 4 million metric tons to 3.7 million metric tons. The hard frosts seen in June caused a drop of 5.56% in the productivity and 9.30% in the production of the 2nd crop corn in the State. The West Region was the most affected by this weather phenomenon.

In relation to soybeans, the data of production for June posted negative change of 0.93% in the comparison with the previous month. Some municipalities of Mato Grosso, where the excess of rain made a loss of almost 400,000 metric tons in the area production, had influence on this reduction. As a result,  the state productivity was of 2.772 kg/ha, instead of the 2.899 kg/ha predicted to May.

Concerning to the wheat crops, the growth seen in this month’s estimate is due to Paraná, the largest national producer of wheat, and the one that posted an expansion of 1.16% in the production (3.155 million metric tons), in comparison with May's information. The weather conditions was normal for the season, presenting rain and good temperatures to the vegetative development of the plants.

In relation to June 2003, upland cottonseed grows almost 55%

Among the analyzed products, the ones that posted positive change in the production estimate in relation to the previous year were: upland cottonseed (54.95%), paddy rice (25.51%); bean seed 2nd crop (7.16%); sorghum (9.93%) and wheat (2%). On the other hand, the products that had negative change were: bean seed 1st crop (-9%); bean seed 3rd crop (-26.28%); corn grain 1st crop (-9.10%); corn grain 2nd crop (-19.28%) and soybeans (-3.91%).

The products of the first crop (summer harvest) were practically completely harvested, , with few areas to be harvested, such as some corn and rice crops in some municipalities where the planting starts later. The other crops are yet to be harvested. Corn and wheat are the most relevant crops of the second crop and winter crop, respectively.

Major producer in Brazil, Paraná posts fall of 39% in corn 2nd crop

Corn 2nd crop is expected to have a production of 10.558 million metric tons, 20.60% smaller than 2003’s (13.298 million metric tons). The planted area in this crop was of 3.3 million of hectares (-7.80%) and the productivity index was expected to get near 3,187 kg/ha (-13.86%). Among the main producing areas, only Mato Grosso posted increase in 2004: 10.68% in the area (775 thousand hectares), 14.62% in the production (2.545 million tons) and 3.53% in the productivity (3.284 kg/ha). The other States recorded negative changes, but in Paraná, the major producer in the country, the fall in production was of 39%, registering 3.679 million tons, against 6.031 million tons in 2003. In Paraná, the weather conditions has been presenting some irregularities, as rain scarcity in the beginning of the plantation and frosts in mid-June. Besides, the excessive rain damaged the quality of harvested products, mainly in the West Region, where the municipality of Cascavel, among others, is located. Except for these weahter-related incidents, the other crops undergo several different vegetative stages, developing well. However, given the possibility of late frosts (traditionally in July), producers are worried.

In relation to wheat, the national estimate for this crop is of 6.220 million tons, against 6.029 million tons obtained last year, an increase of 3.17%. The major producers, Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, recorded, respectively, productions of 3.192 million metric tons (3.25%) and 2.362 million metric tons (-1.41%). The weather conditions in these States are normal, providing the crops with a good vegetative development. In Paraná, especially in the West and the North Regions, where wheat crops are more expressive, there were frosts. However, due to the stage that it was (tillage), there was no prejudice to the crop. In the other producing states, the wheat estimate for 2004 was: 56 thousands metric tons (70%) in Minas Gerais; 121 thousand metric tons (15%) in São Paulo; 162 thousand metric tons (-6%) in Santa Catarina; 246 thousand metric tons (47%) in Mato Grosso and 83 thousand metric tons (27%) in Goiás.

¹ cottonseeds, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale