In January 2016, the retail sales shrank 1.5% against the previous month, in the seasonally adjusted series. In this comparison, the change of the nominal revenue was of 0.1%. As a result, the change of the quarterly moving average speeds up in January (-1.2%) the pace of decline of the volume of sales, in relation to the result obtained in the previous month (-0.5%), whereas the rate for the nominal revenue held steady (0.1%).

 In the non-adjusted series, the total sales decreased 10.3% in relation to January 2015 - the tenth negative change in a row in this kind of comparison. Thus, the result for the volume of sales recorded loss of pace in relation to the second semester of 2015 (-6.3%). The annualized rate of -5.2%, cumulative index over the last 12 months, recorded he sharpest loss in the time series, started in 2001, and kept the downward trend observed since July 2014 (4.3%). The nominal revenue presented change rates of 1.0%, in relation to January 2015, and of 2.8%, in the last twelve months.

In the extended retail trade, which includes retail and the activities of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces e of construction material, the changes against the previous month were negative, with rates of -1.6% for the volume of sales and of -0.7% for the nominal revenue. In relation to the same month a year ago, it presented decrease of 13.3% for the volume of sales, and of 4.7% in the nominal revenue of sales. In the cumulative index over the last twelve months, the losses were of -9.3% and
-2.3% for the volume of sales and for the nominal revenue, respectively. Click here to see the complete publication.

Six of the eight activities surveyed recorded negative change

The 1.5% drop in the volume of sales of the retail trade between December 2015 and January 2016, in the seasonally adjusted series, had a prevalence of negative results among the activities comprised in the retail trade. By sector, the main negative highlights came from the 4.3% drop recorded in the sector of furniture and domestic appliances, the second consecutive negative rate in this comparison period, during which it accumulated a loss of 12.3%, followed by hypermarkets, supermarkets, food, beverages and tobacco (-0.9%), which was the activity with the highest weight in the retail structure and falling for the third month; and fuels and lubricants (-3.1%) - a group which recorded a gain a negative rate in this kind of comparison. The other results were: other personal and household articles (-1.8%); fabric, wearing apparel and footwear (-0.5%); and books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-0.1%). Pharmaceutical, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics, with a change of 0.1%, kept the volume of sales practically stable in relation to December 2015.

Considering the extended retail, the 1.6% reduction enhanced the pace of decline against the result registered in the previous month (-1.0%). January's result had the influence, mainly, of the sales inconstruction material, (-6.6%), after the 3.2% growth in the previous month, followed by vehicles and motorcycles, parts and accessories (-0.4%).

TABLE 1
BRAZIL - INDICATORS OF THE VOLUME OF SALES OF THE RETAIL TRADE AND EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE ACCORDING TO GROUPS OF ACTIVITIES: PMC
January 2016

Fonte: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
(1) Séries com ajuste sazonal
(2) O indicador do comércio varejista é composto pelos resultados das atividades numeradas de 1 a 8.
(3) O indicador do comércio varejista ampliado é composto pelos resultados das atividades numeradas de 1 a 10

In the comparison with same month a year ago, the volume of the retail trade recorded a drop of 10.3% - the tenth negative rate in a row. This was the sharpest drop since March 2003 (-11.4%). It is worth mentioning that January 2016 (20 days) had one less business day than the same month a year ago (21 business days). All the eight retail activities registered negative changes. By order of contribution to the global rate, results were as follows: furniture and household appliances (-24.3%); hypermarkets, supermarkets, food, beverages and tobacco (-5.8%); fuels and lubricants (-14.1%); other articles of personal and household use (-12.5%); fabric, wearing apparel and footwear (-13.8%); office, computer and communication equipment and material (-24.0%); books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-13.3%). Pharmaceutical, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics, with a change of -0.2%, kept the volume of sales practically stable in relation to January 2015.

By changing -24.3% in volume of sales over January last year, Furniture and household appliances exerted the highest negative impact on the overall performance of retail. The cumulative indicator in the last 12 months stayed at -15.9%. With dynamics of sales associated to credit availability, the results of the sector, below the global average, were influenced mainly by the rise of the interest rate and the reduction of the real household income.

Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food, beverages and tobacco, with a change of -5.8% in the volume of sales against January 2015, was responsible for the second biggest negative contribution to the formation of the performance rate of the Retail Trade. In the cumulative index over 12 months, the activity shrank 3.0% - a performance, thus, above the -10.3% recorded by the retail. The aforementioned reduction of the usual real wage bill between January 2015 and January 2016 and the increase in the prices of food at home, in that same period, were the main causes of the negative performance in the sector.

By changing -14.1% in the volume of sales in relation to the same month a year ago, fuels and lubricants were responsible for the third highest impact on the overall figure. In the cumulative index over 12 months, the drop was of 7.3%. The sector's behavior was influenced by the high in fuel prices, whose change surpassed the overall average of prices, and by the impact caused by the pace reduction of the economic activity.

Other articles of personal and household use, encompassing department stores, jewelry shops and sporting goods and toy stores, decreased 12.5% in relation to January 2015, and exerted the third biggest negative influence on the global rate. This result is the sixth consecutive negative and the sharpest in the time series. The cumulative rate of the last 12 months was -2.7%. The negative performance reflects the lowest pace of credit growth and of the wage bill.  

Fabric, wearing apparel and footwear, with a drop of 13.8%, was responsible for the fourth biggest negative contribution to the retail global rate. In the last 12 months, the change stayed at -9.5%. Even with prices of wearing apparel underperforming in relation to the overall inflation rate, the activity represents a lower performance in relation to the overall average.

Office, computer and communication equipment and material, decreasing 24.0% in the volume of sales in comparison to January 2015, had the fifth highest negative contribution to the formation of the global retail rate. As a result, the cumulative rate over the last 12 months stayed at -5.4%. These figures reflect not only the reduction of the real income and the increase of the interest rate, but also the migration process from desktop computers to more portable equipment at a lower cost, like tablets and smart phones.

Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery recorded a change in the volume of sales of -13.3% over February 2015, and a cumulative rate of -11.4% in the last 12 months. Besides the reduction in the real income, the downward trend of this activity has been influenced, as far as newspapers and magazines are concerned, by a certain replacement of print products by electronic ones.

Pharmaceutical, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics, with a change of -0.2%, kept the volume of sales of the retail trade practically stable in relation to January 2015. It is worth mentioning that, even though essential, the pharmaceutical sector recorded, in January, the lowest growth rate in the time series (2.6%), which had been also keeping the segment in a downward trend, begun in July 2014.

The extended retail trade recorded, for the volume of sales, a change of -13.3% over January 2015, the sharpest one in the time series, accumulating in 12 months a loss of 9.3%. This behavior is mostly due to the negative performance of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, whose interannual result, of -18.9%, accounting for 38% of the global rate of the extended retail. In the cumulative rate in 12 months, the sector recorded a drop of 18.0%. The sale reduction in the segment is associated to the lower pace of the economic activity, as well as to other factors such as: lower pace in credit supply and budget constraint of households.

Though less intensively, construction material also influenced the total result of extended retail in January 2016. The change in the volume of sales of -18.5% over January 2015 corresponds to the greatest fall of the time series, accumulating a rate of -9.7% in the last 12 months. Some incentives, like the maintenance of the levels of housing credit, the below-average performance of the activity, reflects the current macroeconomic scenario, especially as far as credit and real wage bill of the employed are concerned.

TABLE 3
BRAZIL - COMPOSITION OF THE MONTHLY RETAIL TRADE,
BY ACTIVITIES: PMC - January 2016
(Indicators of the volume of sales)

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
Note: A composiçaõ da taxa mensal corresponde à participação dos resultados setoriais na formação da taxa global.

Retail results were negative in 17 of the 27 Federation Units

In the seasonally-adjusted series, retail sales were negative in 17 out of the 27 Federation Units between December 2015 and January 2016. With the highest negative changes seen in Espírito Santo and Rio de Janeiro, both with -3.1%.

Over January 2015, original series, the retail trade recorded decrease in the volume of sales for the 27 states, with a negative highlight, in terms of magnitude of the rate, for Amapá, with -24.4%, as in Graph 6. As to the contributions to the retail trade negative rate, the highlights were, in order: São Paulo (-9.7%) and Rio de Janeiro (-10.4%).

In January 2016, in the extended retail trade, 27 Federation Units recorded negative changes in the volume of sales when compared with the same period of the previous year. The highlights were Espírito Santo, with a decrease of -26.3%, followed by Amapá (-23.8%); Sergipe (-22.9%); Goiás (-21.4%); and Alagoas, with -20.8%.