In the seasonally-adjusted series, volume of sales in the retail trade changed 0.6% in October 2015 over the immediately previous month, interrupting eight consecutive months of negative rates, when the retail registered a cumulative loss of 6.3%. In this same comparison, nominal revenue of sales increased 1.2% against September. As a result, the moving average for volume reduced the falling pace, changing from -0.9% in September to -0.2% in October, and recorded an increase of 0.5% for nominal revenue after the stability reported since April 2015. In the other comparisons in the seasonally-unadjusted series, the retail posted a decrease of 5.6%, in terms of sales volume, in relation to October 2014, registering the seventh negative rate in a row in this comparison, yet less intense than those in the two previous months: September (-6.3%) and August (-6.9%). As a result, the retail trade declined 3.6% in the cumulative index in the first ten months of the year, against the same period of 2014. For the same indicators, nominal revenue of sales recorded change rates of 3.3% over October 2014 and of 3.5% in the cumulative index in the year, respectively. Having declined 2.7% in October 2015, the cumulative indicator in the last 12 months posted the most intense loss since January 2004 (-2.9%) and kept the downward path started in July 2014 (4.3%). In the seasonally-adjusted series, the extended retail trade – which also includes the activities of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, and of construction material – was virtually stable between September and October (-0.1%). As to nominal revenue, a change of 0.4% was recorded after two months of drop. In relation to October 2014, the extended retail retreated 11.8% for volume of sales and 4.3% for nominal revenue of sales. Concerning the cumulative rates, the figures were -7.9% in the year and -6.8% in the last 12 months for volume of sales, and -1.4% and -0.6% for nominal revenue, respectively.  The complete publication of the survey can be accessed here.

5 of 8 activities surveyed change positively

The advance of 0.6% in volume of sales in the retail between September and October was followed by the predominance of positive rates, reaching five out of the eight activities surveyed, highlighted by hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (2.0%), fabric, apparel and footwear (1.9%) and pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (1.5%), the last two growing after declines of 1.4% and 1.0%, respectively. Also registering positive rates, books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (0.7%) and furniture and household appliances (0.6%), which returned to the positive side after seven declines in a row, should be highlighted as well. Office, computer and communication material and equipment (-9.2%), fuels and lubricants (-2.6%) and other personal and household articles (-0.6%) decreased between September and October. On the other hand, the extended retail trade was stable between September and October (-0.1%), after two declining months.  This figure was influenced by the reduction in the pace of fall in vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces (-0.9%), when compared with the immediately previous month, even though construction material (-2.9%) improved its decline compared with the previous months.                                                                 

Compared with the same month a year ago in the seasonally-unadjusted series, volume of sales of the retail retreated 5.6% in October 2015 with a widespread fall among its segments. October 2015 (21 business days) had less two days than the same month last year (23 business days). Having shrank 16.1%, the activity of furniture and household appliances exerted the highest negative influence on the average retail sales, followed by fuels and lubricants (-11.4%) and other personal and household articles (-9.0%). In October, the performance of these three sectors together accounted for 75.0% of the overall retail trade rate. The results of the other activities were: fabric, apparel and footwear (-9.7%), books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-9.5%), hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (-0.3%), office, computer and communication material and equipment (-25.9%) and pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (-0.4%).

TABLE 1
BRAZIL - INDICATORS OF VOLUME OF SALES OF THE RETAIL TRADE AND EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE
ACCORDING TO GROUPS OF ACTIVITIES: PMC - October 2015

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
(1) Seasonally-adjusted series. (2) The retail trade indicator comprises the results of the activities numbered from 1 to 8.
(3) The extended retail trade indicator comprises the results of the activities numbered from 1 to 10.

Having dropped 16.1% in volume of sales over October last year, the activity of furniture and household appliances exerted the highest negative impact on the retail rate. In cumulative terms, the changes in this sector were -13.3% for the first ten months of the year and -10.8% for the last 12 months. As their sales dynamics were associated with the availability of credit, these figures below the average were influenced by the rise in the interest rate between October 2015 and October 2014.

Having dropped 11.4% in volume of sales in relation to October 2014, Fuels and lubricants was the second highest negative contribution to the retail overall. In cumulative terms, the activity rates were -5.2% for the first ten months of the year and -4.1% for the last 12 months. Rated below the overall average, these results were mainly influenced by the rise in the prices of the main product of this activity, whose change surpassed the inflation.

Other personal and household articles, which encompasses segments like department stores, glasses shops, jewelry shops, sporting goods stores, toy stores, etc., declined 9.0% in volume of sales in October in relation to the same month a year ago, recording the third negative figure in this comparison and being responsible for the third highest influence on the overall retail trade rate. Concerning the cumulative indicators, the changes were positive: 0.3% in the January-October period and 2.1% in the last 12 months. The negative performance of this activity reflected the reduced purchasing power of families, as a result of the real fall of income between October 2014 and October 2015.

Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco changed -0.3% against October 2014, posting the ninth negative rate in this comparison, though less intense than that in the two previous months: September (-2.2%) and August (-4.8%). That happened regardless of the fact that food prices stood above the overall index in the 12-month period. The essential nature of the products traded in this sector was the main explanation for the performance above the average of this segment. In cumulative terms, the index in the first ten months of the year was -2.1% and, in the last 12 months, -1.9%.

The sector of office, computer and communication material and equipment shrank 25.9% in volume of sales in October, registering the fourth consecutive drop and the highest in the time series for this activity. Even though, the cumulative rates were: 0.6% in the year and 1.8% in the last 12 months. The latest negative figures reflected not only the reduction of the real income and the increase of the interest rate, but also the migration process from desktop computers to more portable equipment, like tablets and smartphones.

TABLE 3
BRAZIL - COMPOSITION OF THE MONTHLY RATE OF THE RETAIL TRADE,
BY ACTIVITY: PMC - OCTOBER 2015
(Indicators of volume of sales)

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
Note: The composition of the monthly rate corresponds to the contribution of sectoral results to the overall rate.

Extended retail falls 11.8% compared with October 2014

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the extended retail trade – which includes retail plus the activities of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, and construction material – stood virtually stable (-0.1%) in relation to the immediately previous month for volume of sales, whereas the rate stayed 0.4% for nominal revenue. The relative stability of the level of volume of sales between September and October reflected, above all, the behavior of the sales of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, which registered a rate of -0.9%, below those reported in September (-4.2%) and August (-6.1%). The segment of sales of construction material declined -2.9% in this same comparison.

Compared with October 2014 in the seasonally-unadjusted series, the changes were of -11.8% for volume of sales and -4.3% for nominal revenue. In terms of volume of sales, the cumulative rates were -7.9% in the year and -6.8% in the last 12 months, and nominal revenue changed -1.4% and -0.6%, respectively. In October, vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces (-23.9%) and construction material (-15.7%) deepened the drop in sales in relation to the previous month, -21.7% and -12.7%, respectively. 

Retail figures positive in 21 of 27 Federation Units

In the seasonally-adjusted series, retail sales were positive in 21 out of the 27 Federation Units between September and October 2015. The highest change rates were reported in Ceará (3.5%) and Rio Grande do Norte (2.1%). On the other hand, the states that posted the sharpest declines in this comparison were Tocantins and Espírito Santo (both with -0.8%).

In the seasonally-unadjusted series, the retail trade dropped in all the 27 states in volume of sales against October 2014, highlighted in terms of magnitude by Amapá (20.9%) and Paraíba (17.9%).  Concerning the contribution to the negative rate of the retail, the highlights were São Paulo (-3.3%), Rio de Janeiro (-4.4%), Santa Catarina (-7.7%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-6.6%).

All the 27 Federation Units also registered negative changes compared with October last year in the extended retail trade. In terms of volume of sales, the highlights were Tocantins (27.2%), Maranhão (-23.5%), Espírito Santo (-23.3%) and Goiás (-23.2%). Rio de Janeiro (-13.9%) was the state that recorded the highest negative impact.