The first estimate for the 2016 national crops of cereals, legumes and oilseeds totaled 211.3 million metric tons - 0.9% higher than the one obtained in 2015 (209.5 million metric tons). The estimated area to be harvested is of 58.4 million hectares - an increase of 1.2% over the harvested area in 2015 (57.7 million hectares). In relation to February's report, the output had a positive change of 0.3% whereas the area decreased 0.2%. Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, which together represented 92.8% of the estimated output and accounted for 86.4% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, the area of soybeans expanded 2.7%, while the area of corn shrank 1.0% and of rice, 6.0%. Concerning production, the increases were of 4.9% for soybeans, decreases of 5.5% for rice and of 3.5% for corn.

Cereals, legumes and oilseeds
Major Regions
Contribution to Production
February 2016

Cereals, legumes and oilseeds
Federation Units
Contribution to Production 2016

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In regional terms, the volume of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds showed the following distribution: Central-West Region, 89.0 million metric tons; South, 75.7 million metric tons; Southeast, 20.6 million metric tons; Northeast, 18.7 million metric tons, and North, 7.4 million metric tons. In the comparison with the last crop, there were increases of 12.3% in the Northeast Region and of 6.3% in the Southeast Region, with reductions of 4.0% in the North, of 0.4% in the South and of 0.9% in the Central-West Region. In the estimate for 2016, Mato Grosso led the national production of grains with a contribution of 24.1%, followed by Paraná (18.2%) and Rio Grande do Sul (14.6%), which together accounted for 56.9% of the national forecast.

Estimate of February in relation to January 2016

Over January, the highlights were the changes in the following production estimates: corn 2nd crop (3.8%), Coffea arabica (1.4%), potatoes 2nd crop (1.4%), soybeans (-0,8%), rice (-1.8%), onions (-1.8%), beans 2nd crop (-2.0%), potatoes 1st crop (-2.1%), cassava (-2.8%), beans - 1st crop (-2.8%), potatoes 3rd crop (-3.9%) and Coffea canephora (-4.2%).

PADDY RICE – February's estimate reports an area to be harvested of 2.0 million hectares, an expected production of 11.6 million metric tons and an expected average yield of 5,770 kg/ha, respectively 1.0%, 1.8% and 0.8% lower than last month's data. Rio Grande do Sul, the country's major producer, with 70.8% of contribution to the national production of rice, estimates a production of 8.2 million metric tons, in an area to be harvested of 1.1 million hectares and a predicted average yield average of 7,689 kg/ha, respectively lower by 2.4%, 1.5% and 0.9%, when compared to the previous month's data. Except for the Central-West, the Major Regions presented negative change in production.

COFFEE BEANS – The production estimate of coffee is of 2,983,406 metric tons or 49.7 million sacks (60 kg sack). The area to be harvested showed a reduction of 0.3%, whereas the average yield increased 0.4%, mainly as a result of a more rainy weather compared to 2015. Coffea arabica crops were calculated at 2.3 million metric tons, or 38.9 million sacks (60 kg sack), a growth of 1.4% over the previous month. More favorable weather, with more rainfall in the beginning of the year, in the main areas of production of Minas Gerais and São Paulo, influenced on the review of the average yield, which in February increased 1.6% over the previous month. São Paulo informed a rise of 12.0% in the production estimate over the previous month, probably reaching 302,446 metric tons or 5.0 million sacks (60 kg sack), which makes the state the second biggest producer in the country, with a contribution of 13.0% to the national crop of this type of coffee. As to the production of Coffea canephora, data still reflect the dry weather in its major producer, Espírito Santo, which informed a drop of 5.9% in the estimate in relation to the previous month. The state expects to harvest 454,988 metric tons, or 7.5 million sacks (60 kg sack), influencing on the decrease of 5.7% in the average yield over the previous month. As a whole, the country should harvest in 2016 648,312 metric tons, or 10.8 million sacks, a fall of 4.2% over the previous month, with an average yield falling 4.0% in the period.

ONIONS -The production of onions is estimated at 1.5 million metric tons, 1.8% lower than January's estimate. The reduction in the average yield of 27,222 kg/ha to 26,841 kg/ha was the main reason for the drop in the total production volume. Paraná presented the results of a production harnessed by excessive rainfall, both in the planting and in the harvesting stages. Reductions of 16.7% in the production and of 16.2% in the average yield were estimated.

BEAN SEEDS - Compared with January, the estimates for the total planted area with bean seeds decreased 2.5% and the average yield increased 0.3%. The production estimate got 2.2% lower. In this survey, the biggest producers are Paraná, with 21.6%, Minas Gerais , with 17.2%, and Bahia, with 10.2% of contribution to the national production. Beans 1st crop is estimated at 1.5 million metric tons, which represent a fall of 2.8% over January's estimate, reflecting the drop of the average yield forecast (2.4%), as well as of the harvested area estimate (0.4%). The shrinking production expectation for beans 1st crop is due, mainly, to Paraná, where there was a 0.2% reduction in the planted area, of 12.5% in the average yield and of 12.7% in the production estimate. The estimated national production of beans 2nd crop adds up to 1.3 million metric tons, according to the February's survey, 2.0% lower than January´s estimate. Such decrease followed the forecast of reduction of the planted area (5.7%), despite the estimate of a 4.0% rise in the average yield. São Paulo had a reduction of 40.6% in the planted area and of 17.1% in the average yield, leading to a production estimate 50.8% lower than the one predicted in January.

CORN (grains) – A production 2.2% higher than in the previous month is expected, totaling 82.7 million metric tons. Weather recovery in January brought better expectation as to the average yield, which was increased by 2.3%, totaling 5,366 kg/ha. The production of corn - 1st crop, which is already being harvested in the Center-South, shrank 0.7%, totaling 28.4 million metric tons. The 0.8% reduction in the harvested area was a key factor in the production drop. Among the five major national producers of corn - 1st crop, accounting for 66.5% of the production, four reduced their planted and harvested areas for this crop. The five biggest producers are: Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná, Santa Catarina and São Paulo, which have a contribution of 18.2%, 16.6%, 12.4%, 9.8% and 9.5%, respectively. Just Santa Catarina did not record reduction of planted and harvested area in February's estimate. Minas Gerais is back to the top with corn 1st corn crop. The state estimates a production of 5.2 million metric tons, 0.9% bigger in relation to January's. The reductions in the planted and harvested area are, respectively, 1.8% and 2.3%. The production rise comes from the increased estimate of the average yield, which went to 6,088 kg/ha - 3.3% higher than that of the previous month. With a production estimate of 54.3 million metric tons, the current  corn 2nd crop reflects the favorable weather in January, making it possible for the estimates of February to be positive, in relation to the average yield. The increase of 3.5% is expected in the average yield, leading the national average yield to 5.505 kg/ha. This high in the average yield allowed the production estimate to grow by 3.8%, when compared to January. In Mato Grosso, production data were revised up. A 20.1 million metric tons production is expected, 5.1% higher than in January. The average yield goes from 5,511 kg/ha in January to 5,687 kg/ha in February, a high of 3.2%. Paraná also has a more favorable weather for corn 2nd crop and, stimulated by the high prices of corn, producers are investing in the product. The increase in the planted area is of 8.8% and in the average yield, 6.3%. A harvest of 12.0 million metric tons is expected.

SOYBEANS (in grain) – Despite the reduction of 0.8% in the production estimate in relation to the previous month, national soybeans is again a record: A harvest of 101.8 million metric tons in an area of 33.0 million hectares. All the three main country's producers register, up to the moment, crop records. Mato Grosso leads national production, with 27.3% of every production in the country. The expected soybean production for the state is of 27.8 million metric tons. In Paraná, the production is estimated at 17.7 million metric tons. Almost 50% are already harvested. The planted area is estimated at 5.4 million hectares. The average yield is of 3,305 kg/ha, a 2.9% reduction in relation to January. Rio Grande do Sul forecasts a crop of 16.1 million metric tons, a 0.8% decrease, when compared to January. The planted area is estimated at 5.5 million metric tons and the average yield at 2,942 kg/ha.

Estimate for February 2016 in relation to the production in 2015

Among the 26 major products, 12 registered positive percent changes in the production estimate in relation to the previous year: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (21.1%), oat grain (9.0%), potatoes - 1st crop (5.7%), cacao nuts (2.5%), coffee beans - arabica (17.3%), onions (1.8%), barley grain (43.9%), bean seeds - 1st crop (15.3%), castor beans (14.5%), cassava (1.3%), soybean grains (4.9%) and wheat grain (13.1%). With a negative change, there were 14 products: upland cotton seeds (7.4%), peanuts in the shell – 2nd crop (0.3%), paddy rice (5.5%), potatoes - 2nd crop (2.3%), potatoes - 3rd crop (24.6%), coffee beans (canephora) (1.0%), sugarcane (4.3%), bean seeds - 2nd crop (0.2%), bean seeds - 3rd crop (19.2%), oranges (2.1%), corn grain 1st crop (3.7%), corn grain 2nd crop (3.5%), sorghum grain (3.9%) and triticale grain (33.8%).

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals (rice, corn, oat, rye, barley, sorghum, wheat and triticale), Legumes (peanuts and beans) and Oilseeds (cotton seed, castor beans, soybeans and sunflower) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in March, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.