The eighth estimate for the 2016 national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds (upland cotton, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, oats, rye, barley, sunflower seeds, sorghum, wheat and triticale) amounted to 186.1 million metric tons, 11.1% below that of 2015 (209.4 million metric tons). The estimated area to be harvested (57.4 million hectares) recorded a decrease of 0.4% in relation to the area harvested in 2015 (57.6 million hectares). In comparison with the July estimate, output decreased 1.5% and the area, by 226.8 thousand hectares. Rice, corn and soybeans, together, represented 92.6% of the output estimate and accounted for 87.8% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, there was increase of 3.0% in the area to be harvested and decrease in the areas of corn (-1.3%) and rice (-9.8%). In terms of output, the estimate records decrease of 0.8% for soybeans, 11.9% for rice and 23.4% for corn. The complete publication is available here.

Among the Major Regions, the volume of cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced reached the following distribution: Central West, 76.5 million metric tons; South, 73.3 million metric tons; Southeast, 19.7 million metric tons; Northeast, 10.3 million metric tons and North, 6.3 million metric tons. Compared with the previous harvest, results point to an increment of  2.3% in the South Region and decresaes of 17.9% in the North Region, 38.1% in the Northeast, 14.9% in the Central West and 3.5% in th South Region. In this evaluation for 2016, Mato Grosso was the leader as the national producer of grains, with 24.5%, followed by Paraná (19.2%) and Rio Grande do Sul (16.9%), which accounted, altogether, for 60.6% of the expected output.

August and July 2016 estimates compared 

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Producton of August, we highlight the main changes in production estimate, versus July figures: upland cotton (-7.5%), potatoes - 2nd crop (-5.4%), potatoes - 3rd crop (16.6%), cacao (-7.6%), coffee (-1.5%), coffea canéfora (-8.3%), onions (-4.2%), bean grain 1st crop (-8.1%), bean grain - 2nd crop (-2.7%), bean grain 3rd crop (0.8%), corn grain 1st crop (-2.3%) and corn grain 2nd crop (-4.6%).

COTTON SEED – The national output is estimated at 3.3 million metric tons in August. The plnated are in the country fell by 6.6%, with reduction of the national average yield, of about 0.9%, reaching 3,533 kg/ha. As a result, the output estimate fell by 7.5% versus that in the previous year.

The decrease reflected the data of the second main producer, Bahia. With the already advanced harvest of cotton, there has been a more precise calculation of the consequences of lack of rain during the planting period and the development of this crop. Another importante fator for the decrease of output was the 22.7% decline in planted area, according to GCEA/BA. This decrease reflects the rise of currency at the moment of input acquisition, mainly of fertilizers and pesticides; and also the high costs of electricity, fuel and manpower.

The average yield was also adjusted, being 3.0% smaller in relation to the previous month. The total estimate was also adjusted, being 3.0% smaller than in th previous month. The overall production in the state was 705 thousand metric tons, 25.0% less than in July. The harvest isi already in its final phase, once the cotton producers from Bahia have up to September 20th to clear their fields and destroy cotton stalks. These measures aim at avoiding a pest know as boll weevil.

POTATO – The harvest estimate for potato in Brazil increased 1.5% this month and hit 3.7 million metric tons. The output is distributed into three crops, hav ing the first one been finished already. The second crop is almost done as well, and presentes a decrease of 5.4% as a result of the end of harvest in Paraná, due to harsh climate conditions. That has reduced the output of the state by 16.5%, with a decrease of 13.4% in avberage yield.

The biggest decrease took place in the 3rd crop of potato (16.6%). Changes occurred in the state of Goiás, in the municipality of Cristalina, precisely, which was one one of the main national producers, which included information this month. Because of lower prices now in effect, the main producers have invested in technology, mainly in the genetic of potato seed, and in the handling of crops. That has resulted in high productivity. According to the IPCA of July, potato has faced a decrease of20.0% in the month, and has reached, in the year, cumulative increase of 23.24%.

CACAU (em amêndoa) - The output estimate for cacao in ugust is 243,541 metric tons, 7.6% less than in the previous month. Planted area and the area to be harvested increased 10.2% and 7.9%, respectively. Th output and the average yield, of 345 kg/ha, fell by 7.6% and 14.2%, respectively.

These data reflect the estimates for Bahia, which had 14.6% in the expected output and a 22.7% decrease in the average yield, due to the lack of rain. One of the longest droughts in the state has damaged the later harvest, which usually tales place between April and September.

COFFEE (bean) – The estimated output of coffee reached 2.9 million metric tons, or 47.8 million 60 kg sacks, with a decrease of 2.7% in relation to the previous month, mainly due to the decline of 2.4% in the average yiled and of 0.3% of planted area. Being almost at the end of harvesting, producers from Bahia have gotten lighter and smaller products, which deands a bigger amount of grains to complet one sack. The extremely dry weather leading to scarcity and a bad distribution of rainfall caused period of water stress, resulting in lower fixation and development of pinheads and reduced filling of grains.

The estimated output of coffee was 2.4 million metric tons, or 39.8 million 60 kg sacks, with a decrease of 1.5% versus the result a month before, or 35,625 metric tons less. The decrease reproduced the data of Bahia, which, in the month, had its production estimate reduced by 28.2%, with decreases of 24.9% in the average yield and 4.4% in planted área. The expected output is 96,720 metric tons, 38,066 metric tons below the amount estimated in the previous month.

Coffee crops this year have been benefited by the dry weather, and in case these good conditions remain, harvest may have been concluded until the end of September. Prices continue stable in July, despite of the advanced harvest, and fell moderately in the first fifteen days of August, staying at R$ 470.00/490.00/60 kg sack, according to the indicator CEPEA/ESALQ.

The oputput estimate of coffea canephora fell by 8.3% in relation to the previous year, also reflecting the decrease of output estimate in Bahia. The GCEA/BA informed a decrease of 48.6% in production this month, and the output is expected to reach 45,877 metric tons, or 764.6 thousand 60 kg sacks. The dry weather led to the decrease of 48.3% in average yield. The estimate for coffea canefora in the country hit 481.0 thousand metric tons.

CEBOLA – In August, the nationa output of onions was estimated at 1.5 million metric tons, with a decrease of 4.2% in relation to the previous month. The decrease of average yield in Bahia was crucial for the decrease of national average yield, being the national average 26,653 kg/há, 2.9% smaller in comparison with the July figure.

The output of onions n Bahia is expected to reach 255.2 thounsad metric tons, with a 20.3% decline in relation to the previous month. This decrease resulted mainly from the lower average yield of the state (-13.4%), as a result of th lower availability of water in the sources that serve crops oin the states.

For producers which start harvests in the second semester, there is some apprehension, since nowadays the prices being paid are lower than those in effect in 2015 and in the fist semestre of 2016. In the month of July, the price paid to the producer was R$ 0,35/kg dof onios, whereas, in the same period of 2015, the price of onion was R$ 3,03/kg, according to the indicator CEPEA/ESALQ.

BEANS – The estimated output of beans was 2.7 million metric tons, with a decrease of 4.6% versus that of the previous month, reflecting the decline in the area to be harvested and in the average yield, by 3.8% and 0.8%, respectively. The lower output estimate resulted, mainly, from the updates condcted by some states from the Northeast, reflecting dry weather, unfavorable to crops. In the month, output estimates fell by 25.0% in Bahia, 70.3% in Sergipe, in 25.9% in Alagoas, 57.9% in Paraíba, 17.0 % in Rio Grande do Norte, 7.9% in Ceará and 0.4% in Maranhão. In Mato Grosso do Sul, due to the lack of rain in fall, the GCEA also reduced the output estimate for bean crops by 25.0%, with decrease of the average yield by 28.4%.

In spite of beans having already been harvested, beans 1st crop have had a price adjustment of 8.1% in comparison with the previous month, and the harvested area and average yield fell by 6.6% and 1.6%, respectively. The output of this harvets is expected to reach 1.2 million metric tons. The biggest decreases came from Bahia (-48.9%), Paraíba (-61.3%), Rio Grande do Norte (-17.3%), Ceará (-8.3%) and Maranhão (-1.0%).

For beans 2nd crop, the decrease of output estimate was 2.7% in comparison with the previous month, also due to the dry weather observed in the main producing mmunicipalities in the Northeast Region. The most significant decreases came from Sergipe (-74.1%), Paraíba (-52.9%), Alagoas (-26.3%) and Ceará (-3.3%). The output estimate of Mato Grosso do Sul was revaluated, being reduced by 27.6% as a result of the 31.3% decline in average yield after the lack of rain in the beginning of the crop period.

As for beans 3rd crop , the expected output is 441.3 thousand metric tons, with increase of 0.8% versus the previous month. Favorable rpices stimulate producers to increase the planting area; nevertheless, there is need of available water for irrigation. Since there was little rainfall in winter, the reservoirs have a low volume of water, which can damage the irrigation crops.

CORN - The climate conditions which damaged the 1st crop of corn, remained during the 2nd crop and brought negative consequences for the overall production. The expected output was 65.5 million metric tons of corn, 3.7% less than in July. The decrease of 2.9% in the estimated average yield was the main fator accounting for this decrease, since now the expected yield is 4,275 kg/ha, versus 4,403 kg/ha of the previous estimate.

Corn - 1st crop recorded a new decrease in output. The estimated amount is 24.6 million metric tons, with a decrease of 2.3% in comparison with July (-567,570 t). The harvested area was also reduced by 2.5% and estimated at 5.1 milion hectares. This estimate of August considers already lost the 234 288 hectares of milk planted as 1st crop. The average yield changed positively by 0.2%, from  4,805 kg/há to 4 816 kg/ha in the evaluation of August.

The most influential Federation Units in the reduction of output estimate in this evaluation of 1st corn, versus July figures, were: Bahia, with a decrease of 510,427 metric tons (-28.6%), Paraíba, reducing the expected output by 39,586 metric tons (-63.2%), Ceará, minus 9,626 metric tons (-7.0%), Alagoas minus 7,067 metric tons (23.8%), Goiás, minus 4 830 metric tons (0.3%), Rio Grande do Norte minus 1,565 metric tons (24.5%) and Espírito Santo minus 1,170 metric tons (3.1%). The dry period and high temperatures, at diferente levels, were the main causes of the estimate decrease in these Federation Units. 

The August evaluations for corn grain 2nd crop were smaller by 2.0 million metric tons, with a negative change of 4.6% in relation to July estimates. A negative reevaluation of the average yield led to a low production estimate, evaluated at 40.9 million metric tons. The long dry periods faced all over the national territory, notably in the fields of production of Brazilian cerrado, are still evaluated in the presente report. Te average yield was estimated at 4,005 kg/ha.

In August, the negative and most influential production estimates were those of Mato Grosso do Sul, with a negative change of 961,167 metric tons (-13.8%); Sergipe, with decline of 567,745 metric tons (-70.0%), Paraná, with a decrease of 322,365 metric tons (-2.9%), Goiás, with minus 76,299 metric tons (-2.0%) and Rondônia, wioth a decrese of 26,140 metric tons (-5.0%).

In this evaluation, the states of Central West, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás, had their average yield reduced by 14.3% and 1.3%, respectively, alsp as a consequence of the lack of rain between April and May, time for the formation of corn cobs, leading to decrease of the output estimate. 

August 2016 estimate versus 2015 output

Among the twenty six main products, ten recorded the biggest positive percent change vesus the previous year: peanuts in husk - 1st crop (28.2%), peanuts in husk - 2nd crop (3.6%), oat grain (46.5%), potato - 1st crop (4.6%), coffea arabica - bean (19.7%), onion (4.3%), barley grain (54.1%), castor beans (9.7%), wheat grain (15.0%) and triticale in grain (20.5%). Sixteen products recorded a negative change: upland cotton seed (-18.5%), rice in husk (-14.9%), potato - 2nd crop (-4.3%), potato - 3rd crop (-2.3%), %), cacao nut (-4.6%), coffee bean - canéfora (26.6%), sugarcane (-1.8%), beans - 1st crop (-15.8%), coffee beans - 2nd crop (-14.9%), beans - 3rd crop (-0.5%), onion (-3.2%), cassava (-2.1%), corn grain 1st crop (-16.1%), corn grain - 2nd crop (-27.3%), soybean grain (-0.8%) and sorghum grain (-43.4%).

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals (rice, corn, oat, rye, barley, sorghum, wheat and triticale), Legumes (peanuts and beans) and Oilseeds (cotton seed, castor beans, soybeans and sunflower) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in March, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.