The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) changed 0.43% in March, being 0.99 percentage points (p.p.) below the February rate (1.42%). In relation to previous months of March, this is the lowest index since 2012, when IPCA-15 was 0.25%. IPCA-E, the cumulative IPCA-15 by quarter, stayed at 2.79%, below the rate of 3.50% that was ecorded in the first three months of 2015. Considering the last 12 months, the index reached 9.95%, fhaving fallen from the 10.84% it had reached in the previous 12 months. In March 2015, the rate was 1.24%. The complete IPCA-15 data can be accessed here.

As shown in the table below, out the nine groups of products and services surveyed, Household Articles (0.88%) and Apparel (0.44%) were the only ones not facing changes in their increase rates, versus figures in the previous month.

Although the group Food products, accounted for 46% of the monthly index, with na impact of 0.20 percentage points, it recorded significant decrease in the change rate, with a change from 1.92% in February to 0.77% in March. The prices of several products fell, for example, of tomato (-19.21%) and potato (-4.61%). however, other prices remained on na upward trend, for example, carrots (24.08%), fruits (6.11%) and cassava flour (5.94%).

In the month, the main individual impact, 0.07 percentage points, came from combustíveisfuels, which recorded a hike of 1.23%. The liter of gasoline rose 0.82%, and the metropolitan área of Salavador was the leader considering this product. The liter of alcohol, nevertheless, rose 3.20%, and its price increased 9.27%, with Salvador as the main location as well.

Among the other items which recorded a hike in the month, the highlights were:

• Cigarette – 3.26%
• Motocrcycle – 2.85%
• TV, Sound and Computer – 2.11%
• Household Appliances – 1.891%
• Cleaning Products – 1.49%
• Health Insurance – 1.06%
• Urban Bus Fares – 0.76%
• Domestic workers – 0.72%

With regard to cigarette, the hike of 3.26% reflected adjustments in some brands and areas, beside reduction of prices. In the item fares of urban buses, the change of 0.76% resulted from the contribution of Goiânia, where the rise of 8.19% resulted from the price adjustment of 12.10% recorded on February 6; in Curitiba, whose change of 7.95% came from the price adjustment of 12.00% in effect since February 1st, except on Sundays, with readjustment of 66.67%; and in Recife, with a change of 1.56%, reflecting the final parcel of the adjustment of 14.28% of January 19.

Electricity was the item which, with a decrease of 2.87%, accounted for the most negative impact, -0.11 p.p. This behavior was due to the reduction of the extra charge in electricity fares, with a change, on March 1st, from R$3.00 (red flag signal), to R$1.50 (yellow flag signal), per each quilowatt-hour consumed. Electricity bills of all the áreas surveyed became cheaper, mainly of Salvador (decrease of 5.85%). In some areas, including Salvador, there was also release of the PIS/COFINS shares.

Besides energy, other items contributed to the deceleration of IPCA-15 in the month, either due to decrease, as it is the case of air fares (-10.79%), or with significant decrease of the pace of growth. One example is Education, which changed from 5.91% to 0.67%, from February to March, leaving behind most of the price adustments in occurred in school fares this year. 

Considering the regional indexes, the most significant ones came from Goiânia (0.67%) and Porto Alegre (0.66%).The index of Goiânia was affected by the result of urban bus fares (8.19%), which reflected the price adjustment of 12.10% which occurred on February 06, besides the hike of 4.01% in the liter of gasoline and 4.94% of etanol. In Porto Alegre, food products rose 1.73%, significantly above the national average (0.77%). The lowest index was that of the metropolitan área of Rio de Janeiro (0.11%), where food products recorded a change of 0.21%, below the national average (0.77%). See below the results by area surveyed.

In order to estimate the IPCA-15, prices were collected from January 15, 2015 to February 15, 2016 (reference) and compared with those in force from December 12, 2015 to r January 14, 2016 (base). The indicator refers to families with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and it encompasses the Metropolitan Areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, and also Brasília and Goiânia. The methodology is the same as the one used for IPCA; the difference lies in the period of price collection and in the geographic coverage.

In order to estimate the IPCA-15 , prices were collected from February 16 to March 15 2016 (reference) and compared with those in effect from January 15 to February 15 2016 (base). The indicator refers to families with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and it encompasses the Metropolitan Areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, and also Brasília and Goiânia. The methodology is the same as the one used for IPCA; the difference lies in the period of price collection and in the geographic coverage.