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In December, retail sales fall (-2.6%) and close 2014 at 2.2%

February 11, 2015 10h25 AM | Last Updated: January 22, 2018 12h26 PM

 

Period Retail trade Extended retail trade
Volume of sales Nominal revenue Volume of sales Nominal revenue
December / November
-2.6
-2.4
-3.7
-3.7
Quarterly moving average
0.0
0.3
-0.1
0.5
December 2014 / December 2013
03
6.0
-2.2
3.0
Cumulative in 2014
2.2
8.5
-1.7
3.9

In December, in the seasonally adjusted series, Retail trade in the country recorded rates of -2.6% for volume of sales and of -2.4% for nominal revenue. Both results were the first negative ones after four consecutive months of increase. The average volume of sales remained unchanged (0.0%), and nominal revenue changed by 0.3%. In relation to December in the previous year, the volume of sales changed 0.3% and revenue, 6.0%. In terms of the cumulative index in the year, volume reached 0.3%, and revenue, 8.5%.

Considering Extended Retail Trade the change in comparison with the previous month, with seasonal adjustment, was the same (-3.7%) for volume of sales and nominal revenue. In the first case, the rate is negative once again after five consecutive months of positive results. In relation to the previous year, volume of sales had negative change (-2.2%) over December 2013 and nominal revenue rose 3.0%. In terms of the cumulative index in the year, volume of sales recorded decrease (-1.7%) and nominal revenue increased by 3.9%.

More detailed information is available at https://www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/comercio/pmc/.



TABLE 1
BRAZIL - INDICATORS OF VOLUME OF SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE BY GROUPS OF ACTIVITY - PMC
December 2014
ACTIVITIES MONTH/PREVIOUS MONTH (*) MONTH/SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO CUMULATIVE
Change Rate Change Rate Change Rate
OCT
NOV
DEC
OCT
NOV
DEC
IN THE YEAR
12 MESES
RETAIL TRADE (**)
1.1
1.5
-2.6
2.2
1.4
0.3
2.2
2.2
1 - Fuels and lubricants
0.6
-0.3
-0.5
2.2
0.1
2.0
2.6
2.6
2 - Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco
2.0
-1.0
-0.1
1.9
-1.4
-0.9
1.3
1.3
2.1 - Super and hypermarkets
1.8
-0.5
-0.3
1.9
-1.1
-0.9
1.3
1.3
3 - Fabric, apparel and footwear
2.1
4.2
-7.3
0.6
1.8
-3.4
-1.1
-1.1
4 - Furniture and household appliances
0.3
6.5
-9.9
-1.8
2.3
-3.6
0.6
0,.6
4.1 - Furniture
-
-
-
-4.7
-4.2
-5.1
0.5
0.5
4.2 - Household appliances
-
-
-
-0.4
5.2
-2.9
0.9
0.9
5 - Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics
1.5
-0.6
-1.1
9.8
6.0
8.0
9.0
9.0
6 - Office, computer and communication material and equipment
3.7
7.6
-8.8
0.3
5.6
7.4
-1.7
-1.7
7 - Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery
-0.9
11.5
-9.2
-13.6
-5.2
-9.6
-7.7
-7.7
8 - Other personal and domestic articles
1.0
5.4
-2.7
5.2
11.7
7.5
7.9
7.9
EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE (***)
1.8
1.7
-3.7
-2.3
-2.4
-2.2
-1.7
-1.7
9 - Vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces
4.4
7.3
-9.4
-11.2
-9.5
-8.6
-9.4
-9.4
10- Construction material
1.2
0.3
-0.7
-0.2
-2.4
1.1
0.0
0.0
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
(*) Seasonally-adjusted series
(**) The retail trade indicator is formed by the results of activities numbered 1-8.
(***) The extended retail trade indicator is formed by the results of activities numbered 1-10

In relation to the seasonally adjusted results of the previous month, the 10 activities surveyed recorded negative results in terms of volume of sales, the rates of which were: -9.9% for Furniture and household appliances; -9.4% for Vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces ; -9.2% forBooks, newspapers, magazines and stationery; -8.8 for Office, computer and communication material and equipment; -7.3% for Fabric, apparel and footwear; -2.7% for Other personal and household articles; -1.1% forPharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics; -0.7% for Construction material; -0.5% for Fuels and lubricants; and -0.1% for Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (Table 1).

In the comparison between December 2014 and the same month a year ago (seres without adjustment) for volume of sales, four of the eight activties of retail trade recorded positive rates, being, in order of contribution to the general result: Other personal adn domestic articles (7.5%); Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (8.0%); Fuels and lubricants (2.0%); Office, computer and communication material and equipment, with 7.4%. The activities whose rates accounted for negative impacts on the rate were: Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery(-9.6%); Fabric, apparel and footwear (-3.4%); Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (-0.9%) and Furniture and household appliances, with -3.6%, according to Table 3.



TABLE 2
BRAZIL - INDICATORS OF NOMINAL REVENUE OF SALES OF RETAIL TRADE AND OF EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE BY GROUP OF ACTIVITY - PMC
December 2014
ACTIVITIES MONTH/PREVIOUS MONTH (*) MONTH/SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO CUMULATIVE
Change Rate Change Rate Change Rate
OCT
NOV
DEC
OCT
NOV
DEC
IN THE YEAR
12 MESES
RETAIL TRADE (**)
1.2
2.0
-2.4
8.3
7.5
6.0
8.5
8.5
1 - Fuels and lubricants
1.3
1.4
-1.7
7.9
6.9
5.4
7.9
7.9
2 - Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco
1.8
0.3
0.5
9.0
6.0
6.7
8.4
8.4
2.1 - Super and hypermarkets
2.1
0.4
0.3
9.0
6.3
6.6
8.3
8.3
3 - Fabric, apparel and footwear
2.2
4.4
-7.9
4.7
5.2
0.0
3.4
3.4
4 - Furiture and household appliances
0.0
9.6
-11.0
3.9
7.5
0.2
7.2
7.2
4.1 - Furniture
-
-
-
1.9
1.9
0.0
7.8
7.8
4.2 - Household appliances
-
-
-
4.9
10.4
0.4
6.9
6.9
5 - Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics
1.7
0.1
-0.4
15.1
10.9
13.2
14.1
14.1
6 - Office, computer and communication material and equipment
2.2
7.2
-9.8
-5.1
-0.8
2.1
-4.2
-4.2
7 - Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery
-0.3
12.5
-8.8
-7.6
2.4
-2.5
-1.4
-1.4
8 - Other personal and domestic articles
1.3
5.3
-2.1
10.6
17.0
12.6
13.8
13.8
EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE (***)
2.3
3.0
-3.7
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.9
3.9
9 - Vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces
4.4
7.0
-8.9
-8.2
-6.5
-5.8
-6.5
-6.5
10- Construction material
1.5
0.3
-0.5
5.2
2.2
5.6
5.8
5.8
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
(*) Seasonally-adjusted series
(**) The retail trade indicator is formed by activities 1-8
(***) The extended retail trade indicator is formed by activities 1-10.

ANNUAL RESULTS

 

The cumulative change in 2014 was 2.2%, in relation to the previous year (series without adjustment), a result below that of 2013 in relation to 2012, which was 4.3%. Among the eight activities of Retail trade, five recorded positive rates, in relation to the previous month, whose behavior is described below, according to the order of contribution to the overall result.

P align=justify>The segment of Other personal and domestic articles, which encompasses department stores, glasses shops, jewelry stores, sporting good stores, etc., recorded change in volume of sales in 2014 by 7.9% in relation to the previous year. This was the main impact on the anual result of Retail trade (Table 3). The diversity of items traded in this segment favors the performance of sales at Christmas' time.

 

The activity Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics, which recorded increase of 9.0%, in relation to the previous year, accounted for the main contributionto the annual retal trade rate. The change of prices of medicines below the general average of IPCA1 and the essential nature of its products are the main factors accounting for the good performance of this segment, above the retail trade rate.

The activity Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco, with increase recorded increase of 1.3% in 2014 in relation to the previous month, accounted for the main impact on the formation of the retail trade rate. The decline of the increase rate in relation to last year, when there was increase of 1.9% in relation to 2012, results from the deceleration of real wage bill, with a change rate of 1.4%, in 2014, versus 2.4% in 2013, according to the Monthly Employment Survey. It is worth mentioning that the performance of this activity was also influenced by prices of food at home which, in the last 12 months, according to IPCA, changed 7.1% against 6.4% of the general index. It is worth mentioning that the performance of this activity was also influenced by prices of food at home which, in the last 12 months, according to IPCA, changed 7.1% against 6.4% of the general index.



TABLE 3
BRAZIL - COMPOSITION OF THE MONTHLY RETAIL TRADE RATE, BY ACTIVITY - PMC - December 2014 (*)
(Indicators of volume of sales)
Activities MONTHLY RATE CUMULATIVE RATE IN THE YEAR
RETAIL TRADE EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE RETAIL TRADE EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE
Rate Rate composition Taxa Rate composition Taxa Rate composition Taxa Rate composition
absolute relative (%) absolute relative (%) absolute relative (%) absolute relative (%)
Overall Rate
0.3
0.3
100.0
-2.2
-2.2
100.0
2.2
2.2
100.0
-1.7
-1.7
100.0
1 - Fuels and lubricants
2.0
0.2
66.7
2.0
0.1
-4.6
2.6
0.3
13.6
2.6
0.2
-11.8
2 - Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco
-0.9
-0.4
-133.3
-0.9
-0.3
13.6
1.3
0.6
27.3
1,3
0.4
-23.5
3 - Fabric, apparel and footwear
-3.4
-0.4
-133.3
-3.4
-0.3
13.6
-1.1
-0.1
-4.6
-1,1
-0.1
5.9
4 - Furniture and household appliances
-3.6
-0.5
-166.7
-3.6
-0.3
13.6
0.6
0.1
4.6
0.6
0.0
0.0
5 - Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics
8.0
0.5
166.7
8.0
0.3
-13.6
9.0
0.6
27.3
9.0
0.4
-23.5
6 - Office, computer and communication material and equipment
7.4
0.1
33.3
7.4
0.1
-4.6
-1.7
0.0
0.0
-1.7
0.0
0.0
7 - Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery
-9.6
-0.1
-33.3
-9.6
-0.1
4.6
-7.7
-0.1
-4.6
-7.7
0.0
0.0
8 - Other personal and domestic articles
7.5
0.9
300.0
7.5
0.6
-27.3
7.9
0.8
36.4
7.9
0.5
-29.4
9 - Vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces
-
-
-
-8.6
-2.4
109.1
-
-
-
-9.4
-3.1
182.4
10- Construction material
-
-
-
1.1
0.1
-4.6
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
(*) It corresponds to the participation of sector results in the formation of the overall rate

The fourth biggest contribution to the overall retail trade rate was observed in the activity of activity Fuels and lubricants, which recorded, in 2014, a positive result in terms of volume of sales of 2.6% in relation to the previous year. This performance was influenced by the behavior of prices of fuels, the rise of which in the year was 4.9%, versus the overall average of 6.4%, according to the Extended Consumer Price index - IPCA.

The activity Furniture and household appliances accounted for the biggest impact on the formation of the overall retail trade rate, with a rate of 0.6% in 2014. There was deceleration of increase of this activity considering the result of 2013 (5.0%). The increase of the interest rate2 {ut1} and gradual withdrawal of incentives (reduction of taxes on products - IPI) directed to white goods influenced this performance. According to the Central Bank, the average rate of interests of unearmarked credits, changed from 29.0% in December 2013 to 32.4% in December 2014.

With a change of -1.7%, the activity Office, computer and communication material and equipment accounted for null impact on the result of retail trade. This negative result was influenced by the lower rhythm of expansion of credit which, according to the Central Bank, changed, in 12 months, from 7.8% in December 2013 to 4.7% in December 2014, as well as the previously mentioned change of interest.

Two activities recorded negative influence in the annual result of volume of retail sales, both with the same level of impact: Fabric, apparel and footwear, with a rate of -1.1% in relation to the previous year; and Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery, with -7.7%. These two results can be explained maily due to the deceleration of increase, as previously mentioned.

Extended retail trade, formed by retail trade and the activities ofVehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces and Construction material, recorded in 2014 a change of -1.7% in relation to the previous year, after increase of 3.6% in 2013. This deceleration occurred due to the decrease of sales of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, which was -9.4% in 2014, versus 1.4% in 2013. The factors which explain this reult are: deceleration of credit; the gradual reduction of incentives via IPI reduction, the rise of interest rates and monetary restrictions of families.

In 2014, the segment of Construction material did not record change (0.0%) after increase of 6.9% in 2013. The increase of housing credit supply and of incentives to this sector (decrease of taxes for a bakste of products, etc) was not enough to stimulate the performance of this sector. That results, mainly, from the budget restriction of families and deceleration of wage bill increase.

See the remainder in Portuguese.

REGIONAL RESULTS

In Retail trade, 27 of the 19 Federation Units presented positive changes in terms of volume of sales, in the comparison between December 2014 and the same month a year before (series without adjustment), the main highligh being: Roraima, with 26.3%, Acre, with 9.5%, Amapá, with 5.6%, Rondônia, with 5.5% and Minas Gerais, with 2.7% (Graph 5). As for the participation in the formation of the overall rate of Retail trade,, the highlights, in order of importance, were: Rio de Janeiro (2.3%); Minas Gerais (2.7%); Santa Catarina (1.7%); and Paraná (1.4%).

In terms of volume de vendas, of sales, the results of December 2014 over the previous month, with seasonal adjustment, were positive in two states: Roraima, with 6.7% and Paraná, with 0.2%. The main decreases occurred in Paraíba (-13.3%); Amapá (-10.1%); Pará (-9.0%) and Goiás (-8.9%).

As for Extended Retail Trade , 15 states presented positive changes in comparison with the same period in the previous year, in terms of volume of sales. The highlights were Roraima, with 15.5%; Rondônia, with 5.8%; Tocantins, with 4.7%; Acre, with 3.5% and Rio de Janeiro, with 3.4%. The main negative contributions to the result of the sector were: São Paulo (-6.6%); Rio Grande do Sul (-3.8%); and Paraná, with -2.3%.

RESULTS BY QUARTER

 

Retail trade in the country presented, in the seasonally-adjusted comparison between Q4 and Q3 2014 , acceleration of the volume of sales, with change of the rate from -0.4% to 2.0%. The same behavior was observed in Extended retail trade, , from -1.5% to 2.1%.

All of the ten activities surveyd recorded positive rates in the fourth quarter of 2014 in relation to the previous quarter, in terms of volume of sales: Office, computer and communication material and equipment (7.2%); Other personal and household articles (5.5%); Vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces(4.8%); Furniture and household appliances (3.1%); Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (2.0%); Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (1.9%); Construction material (1.8%); Fabric, apparel and footwear(1.7%); Fuels and lubricants(1.4%); and Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco, with1.2%.

In the comparison with the last quarter of 2014 and the same period in the previous year, Retail trade recorded a rate of 1.2%, being this result above that of the third quarter (-0.5%). A comparison between the rates of Q3 and Q4 2014 shows that, for the activities with positive results, there were increases in Office, computer and communication material and equipment (from -6.1% to 4.7%); Other articles of personal and domestic use (from 4.9% to 8.0%); Fuels and lubricants (from 1.0% to 1.4%); and deceleration in Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (from 8.2% to 7.9%). The other ones, in spite of negative rates in the last quarter, reduced their pace of decrease: Furniture and household appliances, with a change in rate from -5.7% to -1.2%; Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (from -1.2% to -0.2); Fabric, apparel and footwear (from -1.7% to -1.0%) and Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (from -10.7% to -9.4%), as shown in Table 4.

In Extended retail trade, the volume of sales in Q4 2014, in relation to the same quarter a year before, presented change of -2.3%, being above the rate of Q3 (-4.4%). The activity of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, had a change of -9.8%, whereas in the previous quarter the result was -11.7%. The segment of Construction material recorded a rate of -0.6%, versus -3.1% in Q3.

RESULTS BY SEMESTER

In the second quarter of 2014, in comparison with the previous month, Retail trade presented change rates of 0.1% for retail trade and of -1.7% for Extended retail trade. In relation to the same period a year ago, the results of the second quarter were 0.4% for retail trade, with deceleration in relation to the first quarter (4.3%) and of -3.3% for extended retail (below the rate in the first semester, of 0.1%).

___________________

1 Change of 4.9% in 12 months for pharmaceuticals, versus 6.4% in the General Index, according to IPCA.

2 According to the Central Bank, the average interest rate for the acquisition of unearmarked credits changed from 29.% in December 2013 to 32.4% in December 2014.