The third estimate for the national harvest of cereal grains, legumes and oilseeds (upland cotton, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) amounted to 210,0 million metric tons, 0.2% above the 2015 figure (209.5 million metric tons). The estimated area to be harvested (58.4 million hectares) represented an increase of 1.1% over the harvested area of 2015 (57.7 million hectares). In comparison with the February estimate, there was negative change of 0.6% in output and a reduction of area by 18,742 hectares. Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group, and accounted, together, for 93.0% of the production estimate, and for 86.9% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, there were increments of 3.1% in the area used for soybean crops; of 0.4% in the area for corn; 7.9% in the area for rice crops. In terms of output, soybeans recorded an increase of 3.2%; rice and corn , decreases of 7.8% and 2.2%, respectively. The complete publication can be accessed here.

Among the Major Regions, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presented the following distribution: Central-West, 90.0 million metric tons; South, 75.2 million metric tons; Southeast, 20.8% million metric tons; Northeast, 17.0 million metric tons and North, 7.0 million metric tons. Compared with the previous crop, there were increases of 2.1% in the Northeast, of 7.7% in the Southeast and of 0.2% in the Central-West, and reductions of 9.2% in the North and of 1.1% in the South. In this evaluation for 2016, Mato Grosso led as the biggest national producer of grain with a contribution of 24.2%, followed by Paraná (18.2%) and Rio Grande do Sul (14.7%), which,together accounted for 57.1% of the estimated output.

March estimate in relation to February 2016 figure

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production of March the highlightswere changes in the following output estimates, versus those in the previous month: beans - 2nd crop (4.6%), potatoes - 2nd crop (4.5%), upland cotton (3.7%), corn - 2nd crop (3.2%), coffea canephora (1.8%), coffea arabica (0.7%), potatoes - 1st crop (-1.1%), cassava (-1.5%), soybeans (-1.6%), corn - 1st crop (-2.2%), rice (-2.4%), beans - 1st crop (-2.5%), beans - 3rd crop (-2.5%), cacao nuts (-2.8%) and sorghum (-10.0%).

UPLAND COTTON SEED - The estimated output of March lead to a revision of cotton productivity. The expected an average yield for this crop is 3,903 kg/hectares, 3.7% more in relation to the previous month. The positive adjustment of the national caused output to increase to increase 4.0 million metric tons. This result comes, mainly, from Bahia, which recorded na increase of 12.3%. Despite the reduction of the estimated planted area by 2.9%, the output of Bahia was estimated at 1.2 million metric tons, with an increase of 9.0% in relation to the previous month. With a hike of 2.0% in the estimate, the production of Mato Grosso becomes 2.3 million metric tons. The planted area was also positively readjusted by 1.7%, adding up to 591.7 thousand hectares.

PADDY RICE - The estimated output of March for the 2016 national harvest indicates an area to be harvested of 1,975,137 hectares, with an estimated production of 11,349,137 metric tons, and an average yield of 5,746 kg/ha, respectively 2.0%, 2.4% and 0.4% smaller in comparison with the data of the previous month. Rio Grande do Sul, the biggest producer, with 72.3% of contribution to the national total, expects a production of 8,207,836 metric tons, with an estimated average yield of 7,655 kg/ha, respectively, 0.3% and 0.4% smaller when compared with the previous month data. Conversely, the area to be harvested, of 1,072,150 hectares, was 0.1% bigger. Santa Catarina, the second biggest producer in the country, expects a production of 1,054,768 metric tons, with an estimated average yield of 7,141 kg/ha, 0.9% and 1.0% below the results in the previous month. The area to be harvested, of 147,714 hectares, is 0.1% bigger.

COFFEE BEANS - The current estimate for the total production of coffee in the country is 3.0% million metric tons, or 50.2 million 60kg sacks, a rise of 0.9% versus the previous month result. The estimated output for coffea arabica increased 0.7% over that in the previous month, resulting in na expected harvest of 2.4 million metric tons, or 39.2 million 60 kg sacks. In March, the highlight was Bahia, which has had its production estimate increased by 15.5%, being expected to reach 134,786 metric tons, or 2.2 million 60kg sacks. The average yield was adjusted and increased by 15.1% versus the previous month figure, due to the rainy weather and major inputs in crops. The state is the fourth biggest producer of this kind of coffee in the country, with a contribution of 5.7% of the total to be harvested.

The estimated production of coffea canephora increased 1.8% in March, versus the previous month result, being expected to reach 660,051 metric tons, or 11 million 60kg sacks. The average yield and the area to be harvested rose 1.2% and 0.6%, respectively. Bahia, second biggest producer of coffea canephora in the country, with a contribution of 13.5% to the national total, increased its output estimate by 16.9%, being expected to reach 89,217 metric tons, or 1.5 million 60kg sacks. Espírito Santo, the main producer of this kind of coffee, with a contribution of 68.9% of the total to be produced in the country, kept the same data as in the previous month. The state, which in the two preceding years had faced droughts in the main producing municipality, expects na output of 454,988 metric tons, or 7.6 million 60kg sacks.

CACAO (nut) - In March, the estimated production of cacao reached 254,497 metric tons, a drop of 2.8% versus the result in the previous year. The planted area and the area to be harvested were reduced by 5.7% and 6.1%, respectively, with the estimated average yield positively adjusted by 3.4%. The data reflect a reduction of the Bahia estimates, since the expected output fell 5.0%, mainly due to the reduction of 7.9% of the area harvested with the crop versus the figure in the previous month. That happened despite the increase of 3.0% in the estimated average yield, due to rainy weather in the main municipality producers of the state.

BEANS (seed) - Compared with the previous month, the estimate for the area to be planted withtotal beans decreased 0.5% and the average yield rose 1.1%. The estimated output was 0.4% bigger, adding up to 3.2% million metric tons for 2016. In this survey, the biggest producers were Paraná, with 21.6%, Minas Gerais, with 17.1% and Bahia, with 10.1% of contribution in the national output.

The first crop of beans is estimated at 1.5 million metric tons, representing a decrease of 2.5% versus the February estimate, reflecting a drop in the estimated area to be harvested (3.4%). The reduction in the production estimate of beans - 1st crop results, mainly, from the contribution of Northeastern states, where there was a drop of 4.7% in the area to be planted, of 0.6% in the average yield and of 5.6% in the output estimate.

In the March survey, the estimated production of beans – 2nd crop adds up to 1.4 million metric tons, 4.6% more than in the previous month. This rise follows he forecast of increase of planted area (3.6%) and of average yield (0.6%). In this evaluation, the highlight was Pernambuco with an increase of 0.6% in the planted area and of 19.5% in the average yield, with increase of the estimated output by 66.5%, above the February figure.

For the third crop, in addition to the reduction of 5.0% in the estimated planted area, the production prospect was reduced by 2.5% versus that in the previous month, staying at 362,961 metric tons. The average yield was estimated at 2.6% more than the previous month. The highlight was Mato Grosso, which had produced 15.5% of the national total for the third crop, and had its expected planted area output reduced by 18.5% and 16.0%, respectively. The average yield was estimated to be  3.1% bigger than in the previous month.

CORN (grain) – The national production of corn was positively readjusted in March, due to positive forecast of the harvested area. The hike of 1.4% in the harvested area favored the increase of production by 1.4%, since the average yield remained stable. The expcted output is 83.8 million metric tons of corn.

The production of corn – 1st crop is estimated at 27.8 million metric tons, a retraction of 2.2% versus the previous month. The main reason accounting for that was the reduction of estimated of average yield by 1.6%. Among the three main producers of corn – 1st crop, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, only Rio Grande do Sul reported an increase in its output estimate. In Minas Gerais there was a reduction of 1.6% in the planted area and of 2.4% in the production, compared with the previous month. Entirely, it is expected to produce 5.1 million metric tons in the state of Minas Gerais. Despite the drop in the planted area (-0.5%), Rio Grande do Sul had its production estimate  made up by the rise of 1.3% in the estimated of the average yield. The estimated output is 4.7 million metric tons. Paraná still presents consequences of the heavy rain faced during all the planting stages. The average yield dropped by 2.2%, and, as a result, the production was adjusted by -2.1%. The estimated output in the state is 3.4 million metric tons.

For the second crop of corn, the estimate is positive in relation to the previous month. 56.0 million metric tons are expected for this crop, a rise of 3.2%. For this month, the estimate for both planted area and average yield rose, by 2.6% and 0.6%, respectively. Mato Grosso expects a harvest of 20.1 million metric tons, representing 35.8% of the estimated for the second crop of corn. Paraná recorded an increase of the planted area estimate by 4.4% in relation to the previous month. With an increase of 4.4% in the planted area and of 0.9% in the average yield, the output estimate rose 5.3%. In the state, it is expected to produce 12.6 million metric tons.

SOYBEANS (grain) - Despite the reduction of 1.6% in relation to the previous month, national soybeans production hit a record again. Th expected amount is 100.2 million metric tons of soybeans in na area with 33.1 million hectares. The three main country producers - Mato Grosso, Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul - up to now, have presented records in their production of soybeans. Mato Grosso leads the national output with 27.8% of the country production. The expected soybean production for the state is 27.9 million metric tons. In Paraná, the output estimate is 17.2 million metric tons. The estimated planted area is 5.4 million. The average yield is 3,159 kg/ha, a reduction of 4.4% in relation to the previous month. Rio Grande do Sul expects to harvest 16.0 million metric tons, a drop of 0.8% when compared with the previous month. The planted area is estimated at 5.5% million metric tons and the average yield at 2,921 kg/ha.

Estimate for March 2016 in relation to the production in 2015

Among the 26 major products, 13 registered positive percent changes in the production estimate in relation to the previous year: peanuts in the shell – 1st crop (19.5%), peanuts in the shell – 2nd crop (0.1%), oat grain (6.9%), potatoes – 1st crop (4.6%), potatoes – 2nd crop (2.2%), coffee beans - arabica (18.1%), coffee beans - canephora (0.8%), barley grain (44.8%), bean seed – 1st crop (12.4%), bean seed – 2nd crop (4.4%), cassava (14.7%), sorghum grain (3.2%) and triticale grain (6.0%). 13 products posted negative percentage changes: upland cottonseed (4.0%), potatoes – 3rd crop (24.1%), paddy rice (7.8%), sugarcane (3.9%), cacao nuts (0.3%), onions (4.8%), bean seed – 3rd crop (21.3%), oranges (2.7%), cassava (0.2%), corn – 1st crop (5.8%), corn – 2nd crop (0.3%), sorghum grain (13.5%) and triticale grain (35.2%).

Surveys relative to Cereals, legumes and oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency (CONAB), an agency of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) following a process of harmonization of official crop estimates for the main Brazilian crops, which started in October 2007.