The January estimate for the harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2017 added up to 221.4 million tonnes, which represented a growth of 20.3% in relation to the 2016 harvest (184.0 million tonnes). The estimated area to be harvested (59.9 million hectares) increased 4.9% against that of 2016 (57.1 million hectares). Together, rice, corn and soybeans, the three major products in this group, represented 93.5% of the output estimate and 87.4% of the area to be harvested. The estimated area of soybeans (1.9%), corn (10.3%) and rice (1.2%) increased in relation to 2016. The estimated output rose 11.8%, 38.9% and 10.0%, respectively. In relation to 2016, the output was expected to increase in every region: 25.2% in the Central-West, 9.4% in the South, 10.0% in the Southeast, 89.0% in the Northeast and 16.0% in the North.

The volume of the production expected for the Major Regions were: Central-West (94.0 million tonnes); South (79.9 million tonnes); Southeast (21.6 million tonnes); Northeast (18.0 million tonnes) and North (7.8 million tonnes). In 2017, Mato Grosso was expected to lead the national production of grains, with a contribution of 24.6%, followed by Paraná (18.3%) and Rio Grande do Sul (14.8%). These three states together accounted for 57.7% of the overall estimate.

January estimates versus 2016 output

The production estimates of 14 out of the 26 major products increased in relation to 2016: upland cottonseed (10.4%), peanuts in the shell – 2nd crop (35.7%), paddy rice (10.0%), potatoes - 1st crop (4.2%), potatoes - 2nd crop (2.5%), cacao nuts (28.0%), coffee beans (canephora) (11.1%), bean seed - 1st crop (40.3%), bean seed - 2nd crop (37.4%), corn grain - 1st crop (22.0%), corn grain - 2nd crop (49.5%), soybean grain (11.8%), sorghum grain (62.0%) and triticale grain (11.9%). Twelve products registered a negative change: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (2.8%), oat grain (20.5%), potatoes - 3rd crop (14.1%), coffee beans (arabica) (16.3%), sugarcane (1.2%), onions (0.0%), barley grain (11.0%), bean seed - 3rd crop (0.3%), oranges (8.3%), castor beans (10.0%), cassava (11.8%) and wheat grain (18.3%).

UPLAND COTTONSEED –  The national production estimate of cotton (3.7 million tonnes) rose 10.4% in relation to 2016. The increase of 11.6% in the national average yield, which should reach 3,863 kg/ha, was the main responsible for this rise. The production estimate of cotton in Bahia should rise 6.3% and reach 845.6 thousand tonnes. The estimated reduction in the planted area (-14.3%) would be offset by the increase of 24.1% in the average yield, which should reach 3,837 kg/ha. In Mato Grosso, the output of cotton should grow 9.0% and hit 2.4 million tonnes. The planted area (624.2 thousand hectares) and the average yield (3,879 kg/ha) should grow 3.0% and 5.9%, respectively, in relation to 2016.

PADDY RICE – The January estimate for the 2017 national harvest reported an area to be harvested of 1,963,019 hectares, a production of 11,639,426 tonnes and an average yield of 5,929 kg/ha, respectively 1.2%, 10.0% and 8.6% higher when compared with the data from the previous harvest. The South Region should account for 82.1% of the national output. Rio Grande do Sul, the biggest producer in Brazil, contributing with 71.4% to the overall production, expected a production of 8,315,795 tonnes, in an area to be harvested of 1,089,608 hectares and average yield of 7,632 kg/ha, respectively 11.0%, 2.6% and 8.2% higher when compared with the data from the previous harvest. Current climate conditions were favorable, with sunny and hot days helping to develop this crop. According to EMATER (RS), the crops were going through the phases of germination and vegetative growth (5.0%), flowering (30.0%), grain filling (17.0%), mature and to be harvested (3.0%). Santa Catarina, the second biggest producer in Brazil, expected a production of 1,078,015 tonnes, an area to be harvested of 147,581 hectares and an average yield of 7,305 kg/ha, respectively 2.6%, 0.1% and 2.5% higher when compared with the data from the previous harvest.

POTATOES - The production estimate of potatoes was of 3,907,503 tonnes, representing a reduction of 0.7% over the last year and reflecting a retreat of 1.8% in the area to be harvested. The average yield should stay 1.2% higher. The production estimate of potatoes - 1st crop was of 1,925,069 tonnes, representing 49.3% of the overall output. This forecast was 4.2% higher than the production in the same period in 2016 and was influenced by the increase of 1.2% in the area to be harvested and of 3.0% in the average yield. The South Region should account for 55.0% of this harvest. Its production estimate increased in the three states: Paraná (18.9%), Santa Catarina (6.7%) and Rio Grande do Sul (1.3%). The average yield should increase 7.6% in Paraná, 5.4% in Santa Catarina and 4.0% in Rio Grande do Sul, reflecting a weather that has been benefiting the crops. The second crop of potatoes should produce 1,172,118 tonnes, an increase of 2.5% over the last year, representing 30.0% of the overall production in Brazil. The estimates of planted area and average yield were also higher than last year: 1.6% and 0.9%, respectively. The major producers in this harvest were Minas Gerais (33.7%), Paraná (31.4%) and São Paulo (21.2%).

COFFEE BEANS - The production estimate (2.7 million tonnes) retreated 12.1% in relation to 2016, whereas the estimated area and average yield declined 5.4% and 7.0%, respectively. The drop in the average yield reflected the biennial nature of coffee, as the production in 2016 was record. The production of coffea arabica should decline 16.3%, reaching 2.2 million tonnes and the average yield retreating 11.5%. As the biggest producer in Brazil and responsible for 71.3% of the overall volume, Minas Gerais expected to harvest 1,544,693 tonnes, a drop of 15.0% over the last year. São Paulo and Espírito Santo, the second and third biggest producers in Brazil, expected a reduction of 47.0% and 9.5%, respectively, in the output of coffea arabica. The national output ofcoffea canephora should reach 520,657 tonnes, growing 11.1% in relation to 2016 and the average yield increasing 17.7%. As the biggest producer of this type of coffee and accounting for 61.4% of the overall production in Brazil, the average yield in Espírito Santo should increase 14.6% and the output should reach 319,815 tonnes, representing an increase of 5.2%. The severe drought in 2015 and 2016 should jeopardize the next two harvests. The return of the rainfall by the end of 2016 encouraged the recovery of the crops, which should be treated to recover their productivity. The current estimate was based on a rainy weather in the producing areas, as well as on a favorable price of the product, which encourages higher investments in the crops. Nevertheless, the IBGE informs that the current estimate for 2017 was also based on assessments of the levels of flowering and green coffee beans of the crops in the producing municipalities. As this output was mainly based on the behavior of the weather in the main producing regions, the monthly forecasts yet to be developed would be subject to changes in the next months, when new field information should be included.

SUGARCANE - The production estimate declined (8.7 million tonnes or -1.2%) against 2016, as well as the planted area (-6.2%), the area to be harvested (-0.3%) and the average yield (-0.9%). The production estimate for 2017 was of 719.9 million tonnes. In São Paulo – major producer and responsible for 54.5% of the national overall –, the output should retreat 2.2% and reach 392,128,800 tonnes. The estimates for planted area and average yield declined 9.5% and 2.2%, respectively. Regardless of the increase in the prices of sugar and ethanol, sugarcane crops were being adapted to the fire ban and to the mechanization of the harvest, which tended to reduce re-plantation in distant, difficult access areas.

BEAN SEED - The first estimate for the production of the three crops of beans in 2017 were of 3,387,228 tonnes, representing an increase of 31.7% in relation to the previous year. Estimated at 1,583,352 tonnes, thefirst crop of the product contributed with 46.7% of the overall production of bean seed. This production estimate was 40.3% higher than the output in 2016. The planted area rose 10.9% and the average yield, 13.4%. In this assessment, the states that recorded the highest contribution to the production were Paraná (22.1%), Minas Gerais (13.6%) and São Paulo (11.7%). Concerning bean seed - 2nd crop, the production estimate was of 1,332,429 tonnes, representing an increase of 37.4% in relation to 2016. This represented 39.3% of the overall production of beans in Brazil. The states of Paraná (30.4%), Mato Grosso (15.2%) and Minas Gerais (11.9%) posted the highest production estimates for this harvest. Thethird crop of bean seedexpected a production drop of 0.3%, being estimated at 471,447 tonnes. The estimate for the planted area decreased 1.8% in relation to the same planting period in 2016, being expected an increase of 1.4% in the average yield.

CASSAVA - The production estimate of cassava in 2017 reached 20,901,444 tonnes, representing a reduction of 11.8% against that of 2016. The output should decrease 17.2% in the North Region, highlighted by Amazonas (-50.0%), Tocantins (-20.5%), Pará (-14.3%), Acre (-0.5%) and Rondônia (-0.4%). The Northeast Region expected an increase of 1.5%, mainly due to a rise of 6.5% in the average yield, since the areas to be planted and harvested declined 6.9% and 4.7%, respectively. São Paulo and Paraná, whose production is mainly destined to the flour and starch industries, should produce 1,043,222 tonnes and 2,762,797 tonnes, respectively, representing drops of 14.5% and 26.2%, respectively, in relation to 2016.

CORN GRAIN - The production was estimated at 88,014,130 tonnes, representing an increase of 38.9% and a record in the IBGE time series started in 1975. The production estimate of corn - 1st crop was of 29,662,612 tonnes, an increase of 22.0% over the last year. The area to be harvested and the average yield should grow 12.3% and 8.6%, respectively. The good harvest was a result of more lucrative prices of the product at planting time, which encouraged producers to increase the planted area and the use of technology in the crops. The rainy weather in the major producing states was also an indication of the increasing average yield. Minas Gerais (5,636,320 tonnes), Rio Grande do Sul (5,566,945 tonnes) and Paraná (4,400,229 tonnes) were the three biggest producers in the summer harvest (first crop), which should contribute with 52.3% of the total corn harvested that time of the year. As to corn - 2nd crop, the production estimate reached 58,351,518 tonnes, an increase of 49.5% in relation to the previous year. The area to be harvested and the average yield should grow 9.2% and 36.9%, respectively, due to the expected increase in the rainfall, particularly in the Cerrado biome, which includes the states producing this cereal.

SOYBEAN GRAIN - With the beginning of the harvest in the major producing states, the forecast for 2017 remained optimistic with a production of 107,039,408 tonnes, an increase of 11.8% over 2016. Mato Grosso expected an output of 29,875,115 tonnes, an increase of 13.7%. In Paraná, the production estimate was of 18,524,206 tonnes, a rise of 10.1% in relation to 2016 and a new record for this state. Having virtually finished planting in Rio Grande do Sul, the production estimate was of 16,378,540 tonnes, 1.1% bigger than in 2016 in a virtually-unchanged planted area. Facing droughts in 2016, the Northeast expected a rise of 84.8% in the output. As a highlight, Bahia increased the area to be planted by 5.0% and the average yield by 42.6%, which could lead to a production of 4,812,000 tonnes. In Piauí, the increase in the planted area, the rainfall and the low occurrence of pests pointed to a rise of 229.7% in the output, which could reach 2,123,970 tonnes. Minas Gerais was the only big producer expecting a drop (-5.1%) in the production, due to the Indian summer in the northwest of the state and to the choice of most producers for planting corn.

SORGHUM GRAIN - The production estimate for 2017 rose 62.0% over 2016. The average yield should increase 43.7% and the area to be harvested, 12.8%, reaching an output of 1,893,862 tonnes. In regional terms, the production should increase 62.8% in the Northeast, 25.8% in the Southeast and 95.1% in the Central-West, which accounts for 58.5% of the overall production. Having reported a production estimate of 836,689 tonnes, Goiás should be the major producer in Brazil, accounting for 44.2% of the overall production.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production - LSPA surveys the harvests of the major agricultural products, on a monthly basis, through municipal and regional commissions, as well as through the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics - CEPAGRO, comprising representatives from the IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply - MAPA. The surveys relative to cereals (rice, corn, oat, rye, barley, sorghum, wheat and triticale), legumes (peanuts and beans) and oilseeds (cotton seed, castor beans, soybeans and sunflower) have been conducted in partnership with the National Supply Agency - Conab, from MAPA, an initiative of harmonization of the estimates started in 2007.