In December 2016, the national output of industry increased 2.3% versus the figure in the previous month, in the seasonally-adjusted series.That was the second positive rate in a row, with cumulative increase of 2.6%. Versus December 2015 (in the series without adjustment), the change was -0.1%, the 34th consecutive negative rate in this type of comparison, but the least significance in the series. 

The industrial sector indexes were negative for the end of Q4 2016 (-3.1%), and in terms of the cumulative index in the second semester of the year (-4.2%), being both comparisons against equivalent periods in the previous year. Concerning the cumulative index in 2016, the industrial activity decreased by 6.6% versus the figure recorded in the same period a year ago, after having negative rates in 2015 (-8.3%) and 2014 (-3.0%). As a result, the annualized rate, the cumulative index in twelve months, has remained on a downward trend since June 2016 (-9.7%). The complete publication of the Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM-PF) is available here.

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria.
*Seasonally-adjusted series

16 of the 24 subsectors surveyed recorded increase in December 2016

From November to December 2016, three of the four main economic categories and 16 of the 24 subsectors surveyed recorded positive rates. Among the sectors, the highlight was os setores, o destaque foi motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (10.8%), which hit its highest result for the segment since June 2016 (11.7%) and surpassed the 6.9% expansion recorded in the previous month.

Other relevant positive contributions came from toiletries, soaps, cleaning and personal hygiene products (5.5%), computer equipment electronic and optical products (15.2%), rubber and plastic material (8.3%), manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories (10.9%), mining and quarrying industries (1.6%), food products (0.9%), leather artifacts, travel articles and footwear (7.6%), machinery and equipment (2.4%) and furniture (9.6%).

Among the eight sectors which recorded decrease of output in the month, the main performances regarding the overall average were those of pharmaceuticals (-11.7%), coke, petroleum derivatives and biofuels (-1.9%) and beverages (-5.5%), activities which also had negative rates last November: -1.8%, -3.9% and -0.3%, respectively.

Considering the main economic categories, durable consumer goods (6.5%) and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (4.1%) recorded the main positive rates. The former had cumulative increase of 11.0% in the last two months of 2016; the latter eliminated part of the cumulative decrease (5.7%) of the July-November /2016 period. In these categories, the results in the month were the highest since July 2015 (9.8%) and December 2005 (4.6%), respectively.

The segment of intermediate goods (1.4%) also recorded increase in relation to the 0.7% registered in November. Capital goods (-3.2%) accounted for the only negative rate in December 2016, eliminating part of the 3.9% increase of November.

Still concerning the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the industry overall pointed to an increase of 0.5% in the quarter ended in December 2016 against the level in the previous month, interrupting the downward trend which had started last July.

Among the main economic categories, durable consumer goods (3.5%) recorded the most signicant increase, also in the expansion of 2.1% registered in the previous month, with an interruption of three months of output decrease. Semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (0.9%) and intermediate goods (0.1%) also recorded positive rates. The former interrupted the downward trend which had started in March 2016; the latter recorded the first positive result since July 2016. On the other hand, the segment of capital goods (-0.2%) accounted for the only decrease in the month and has maintained a predominatly negative behavior since September 2016.

Industrial output decreases 0.1% in relation to December 2015

Compared with the same month a year ago, the industrial sector dropped 0.1% in December 2016, with negative results in two of the four main economic categories, 12 out of the 26 sectors, 37 out of the 79 groups and 45.0% of the 805 products surveyed.

Considering the activities, coke, petroleum derivatives and biofuels (-14.1%) accounted for the biggest negative influence on the average of industry, mainly due to th contribution of diesel and ethyl alcohol. Other negative contributions over the national were those of pharmaceuticals (-27.4%), food products (-3.1%), de beverages (-5.8%), other transportation equipment (-21.8%), non-metalic mineral products (-4.9%) and printing and reproduction of recorded media (-18.8%).

Among the 14 activities which had increase in output, the main influences came from motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (19.8%) and mining and quarrying industry (7.0%). It is worth mentioning the positive results of machinery and equipment (12.6%), manufacture of wearing apparel and footwear (23.4%) and computer equipment, electronic and optical products (29.1%).

Still comparing with December 2015, semi-durable and non-durable goods (-3.6%) registered the steepest decline among the major economic categories. The sector of intermediate goods (-0.5%) also had a negative result in the month, above the national average (-0.1%). On the other hand, capital goods (17.3%) and durable consumer goods (4.8%) recorded positive rates.

Industrial sector 3.1% down in Q4 2016

The industrial sector, after decreasing 3.1% in Q4 2016, had its eleventh consecutive negative rate in this type of comparison, but recorded its least significant decrease in the sequence. From the third (-5.3%) to the fourth quarter of 2016 (-3.1%), being both comparisons against the same period a year ago, the industry overall recorded a reduction in the intensity of decrease and, among the main economic categories, this movement of increase between the two periods was most significant for durable consumer goods (from -12.1% to 0.6%) and capital goods (from -4.4% to 1.8%).

The segment of intermediate goods (from -5.0% to -2.9%) also faced reduction in the magnitude of increase, but still recorded a negative rate for the 13th quarter in a row. On the other hand, the producers of semi-durable and non-durable goods, after the change from -4.4% to -5.5%, was the only one to record decrease of pace between the two periods.

In 2016, industry had a cumulative decrease of 6.6%

Considering the cumulative index for January-December 2016, against the same period in the previous year, the industrial sector had a decrease of 6.6%, with widespread negative rates, since the four major economic categories, 23 out of the 26 sectors, 63 out of the 79 groups and 72.8% of the 805 products surveyed faced production decline.

Among the activities, mining and quarrying industry (-9.4%), coke, petroleum derivatives and biofuels (-8.5%) and motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-11.4%) accounted for the main negative contributions to the overall average of industry. Other relevant negative contributions over the national overall came from machinery and equipment (-11.8%), non-metallic mineral products (-10.9%), other transportation equipment (-21.7%), basic metals (-6.6%), metal products (-9.8%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-14.8%), rubber and plastic material (-7.1%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-8.5%), tobacco products (-25.6%), pharmaceuticals (-6.0%), manufacture of wearing apparel and footwear (-5.8%) and furniture (-11.0%).

On the other hand, among the three activities with increase of output in the twelve months of 2016, the main influences came from food products (0.6%) and pulp, paper and paper products (2.5%).

Among the main economic categories, the profile of results for the cumulative index in the twelve months of 2016 recorded less dynamism in durable consumer goods (-14.7%) and capital goods (-11.1%), mainly affected the the reduced output of cars (-12.8%) and household articles (-16.3%) in the former; and capital goods for transportation equipment (-12.6%) and for industrial use (-11.4%), in the latter.

Intermediate goods (-6.3%) and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (-3.7%) also recorded negative rates in terms of the cumulative index in the year. The former recorded decrease slightly below the national average (-6.6%); the later had the most moderate decrease among the main economic categories.