* seasonally adjusted

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the retail trade advanced 2.0% in November 2016 over the immediately previous month, interrupting a series of four negative rates. In this same comparison, nominal revenue changed 0.9%. Having offset part of the cumulative loss of 2.3% between July and October, the positive change of volume of sales in November contributed to interrupt the downward trend of the moving average indicator (0.3%) registered since May 2016. In this same indicator, the change in nominal revenue remained positive (0.1%).

The comparison with the same month of the previous year in the seasonally-unadjusted series, volume of sales dropped 3.5% in relation to November 2015, the 20th consecutive negative rate in this type of comparison, though the less intense since June 2015 (-2.7%). As a result, the figures remained negative for volume of sales in the cumulative index in the year (-6.4%) and in the last 12 months (-6.5%). In these same comparisons, nominal revenue remained on the positive side, changing, respectively: 5.0%, 4.8% and 4.6%.

Concerning the extended retail trade – which includes the activities of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and of construction material –, the changes over the immediately previous month were positive, recording rates of 0.6% for volume of sales and of 0.3% for nominal revenue. In the comparisons involving the previous year, volume of sales posted negative figures, dropping 4.5% in relation to November 2015, 8.8% in the cumulative index in the year and 9.1% in the cumulative index in the last 12 months. On its turn, nominal revenue increased over November 2015 (1.7%), registering a cumulative rate in the January-November period and in the last 12 months of -0.6% and -0.8%, respectively.

The complete publication of the survey can be accessed here.

5 of 8 activities surveyed change positively

Positive figures prevailed in the increase of 2.0% of volume of sales of the retail activity in November, reaching five of the eight activities that comprise the retail trade. The main highlight came from the advance of 0.9% in hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco, followed by other personal and household articles (7.2%), furniture and household appliances (2.1%) and the sector of office, computer and communication equipment (4.3%). The performance of these segments in November indicated the advance of Christmas purchases, as observed in previous years. Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (0.6%) also advanced. Among the activities that reduced volume of sales in relation to October 2016, Fabric, apparel and footwear (-1.5%), Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-0.4%) and fuels and lubricants (-0.4%) stood out. Concerning the extended retail, the positive change in November (0.6%) was mainly influenced by the behavior of the sector of construction material (7.2%), as the sector of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces retreated 0.3%.

TABLE 1
BRAZIL - INDICATORS OF VOLUME OF SALES OF THE RETAIL TRADE AND EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE
ACCORDING TO GROUPS OF ACTIVITY: PMC - November 2016

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
(1) Seasonally-adjusted series. (2) The retail trade indicator comprises the results of the activities numbered from 1 to 8.
(3) The extended retail trade indicator comprises the results of the activities numbered from 1 to 10.

Compared with the same month last year, the retail sector dropped 3.5% in volume of sales in November 2016, showing a widespread profile of negative results. Among the activities, the reduction in volume of sales in furniture and household appliances (-7.4%) exerted the major negative impact on the overall rate, followed by fuels and lubricants (-8.1%), fabric, apparel and footwear (-9.6%) and hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (-1.1%). The other activities that recorded negative rates were pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (-3.0%), office, computer and communication material and equipment (-9.2%), books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-11.8%) and other personal and household articles (-0.4%).

Having dropped 7.4% in relation to November 2015, the activity of furniture and household appliances posted the biggest negative influence on the overall rate of the retail trade. By posting rates of -13.0% in the cumulative index between January and November and of -13.7% in the cumulative index in the last 12 months, this segment remained underperforming. With a sales dynamics associated to the availability of credit, the results of this sector were mainly influenced by the rise of the interest rate in credit operations for individuals between November 2016 and November 2015.

Having dropped 8.1% in volume of sales in relation to November 2015, Fuels and lubricants was the second biggest negative contribution to the overall retail rate. In cumulative terms, the activity rates were -9.6% for the first 11 months of the year and -9.6% for the last 12 months.

Having declined 9.6% in volume of sales over November 2015, the segment of fabric, apparel and footwear was responsible for the third negative contribution to the overall rate. In terms of cumulative performance, the results were of -11.2% in the January-November period and of -11.0% in the last 12 months. Even with the clothing prices positioned below the overall index of inflation, this activity cumulatively performed below the overall average of the retail trade.

Having retreated 1.1% over November 2015, the activity of hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco accounted for the fourth biggest negative influence on the reduction of volume of sales of the retail in November. The cumulative indexes in the year and in the last 12 months stayed at -3.1%, which positioned this sector in a level above the overall average of the retail.

Having changed -3.0% in volume of sales between November 2016 and November 2015, the segment of pharmaceutical and medical goods, cosmetic and toilet articles was the fifth biggest negative contribution. The cumulative indicator in the year stayed at -1.7% and, in the last 12 months, at -1.2%. This activity remained standing out in terms of cumulative performance, which could be attributed to the essential nature of its products.

Having reduced the volume of sales by 9.2% in relation to November 2015, office, computer and communication material and equipment registered the 17th negative rate in a row. The latest negative figures reflected not only the reduction of the real income and the increase of the interest rate, but also the migration process from desktop computers to more portable equipment, like tablets and smartphones. The cumulative rate up to November stayed at -13.6%, whereas the change in the last 12 months was of -13.9%.

The activity of books, newspapers, magazines and stationery fell 11.8% in volume of sales over November 2015. The cumulative rates stayed at -16.5% in the 11 months of the year and at -16.4% in the last 12 months. The declining pace of this activity was being influenced by the replacement of electronic media for printed products, particularly in the case of newspapers and magazines.

Other personal and household articles (-0.4%) recorded the 16th consecutive retreat, though the less intense in the series. Concerning the cumulative indicators, the rate for the first 11 months of the year was -10.2% and, for the last 12 months, -9.9%.

In the seasonally-adjusted series for volume of sales, the extended retail trade advanced 0.6% in relation to the immediately previous month, whereas that for nominal revenue stayed at 0.3%. The increase in the level of volume of sales between October and November reflected the behavior of sales in the segment of construction material, which rose 7.2%, whereas vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces posted -0.3% in this same comparison. Compared with the same month a year ago in the seasonally-unadjusted series, the changes for the whole extended retail were of -4.5% for volume of sales and 1.7% for nominal revenue. In terms of volume of sales, the cumulative rates were -8.8% in the year and -9.1% in the last 12 months, and nominal revenue changed -0.6% and -0.8%, respectively.

TABLE 3
BRAZIL - COMPOSITION OF THE MONTHLY RATE OF THE RETAIL TRADE,
BY ACTIVITY: PMC - November 2016
(Indicators of volume of sales)

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
Note: The composition of the monthly rate corresponds to the contribution of the sectoral results to the overall rate.

Volume of sales advances in 23 of 27 Federation Units

In the seasonally-adjusted series, retail sales were positive in 23 out of the 27 Federation Units between October and November 2016. The highest change rates were reported in Tocantins (6%) and Paraíba (3.8%). Having posted -0.9% each, Alagoas and Roraima were the states that registered the steepest declines in this comparison.

In the seasonally-unadjusted series, the retail trade dropped in 21 out of the 27 states in volume of sales against November 2015, highlighted by Pará (-13.7%). Paraíba (11%) reported the biggest increase in volume of sales in November. Concerning the participation in the negative rate of retail, the highlights were São Paulo (-3.4%), Rio de Janeiro (-6.8%) and Bahia (-7.5%).

In the extended retail trade, 23 Federation Units registered negative changes compared with November last year. In terms of volume of sales, the highlights were Pará (-14.2%) and Paraíba (3.2%). The states that recorded the biggest negative impacts were São Paulo (-5.1%) and Rio de Janeiro (-7.4%).