The third projection for the 2017 harvest of cereals, legmes and oilseeds points to na estimated output of 213.7 million metric tons, 16.1% above the 2016 result. All the Major Regions are expected to record increases in output: North (13.4%), Northeast (73.0%), Southeast (11.1%), South (5.8%) and Central West (20.5%).

The December estimate for the amount harvested in 2016 (184.0 milllion metric tons), was 12.2% below that obtained in 2015 (209.7 million metric tons). The área to be harvested (57.1 million hectares) fell by 0.9% in comparison with that in the previous year. Rice, corn and soybeans, the main products in this group, represented 92.2% of the estimated output and accounted for 87.8% of the área to be harvested. In relation to 2015, there were decreases in the output of soybeans (-1.8%), rice (-14.0%) and corn (-25.7%).

For 2016, the regional distribution of the grain output was: Central West, 75.1 million metric tons; South, 73.0 milllion metric tons; Southeast, 19.6 million metric tons; Northeast, 9.5 million metric tons and North, 6.7 million metric tons. In relation to the previous harvest, there was decrease of 2.1% in the Southeast, of 12.5% in the North, of 42.0% in the Northeast, of 16.3% in the Central West and of 3.6% in the South. In this evaluation for 2016, Mato Grosso was the main national grain producer, having accounted for 23.9% of the national output, followed by Paraná (19.0%) and Rio Grande do Sul (17.3%). Together, these three states represented 60.2 % of the national overall production.

Highlights of December versus November

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production of December, the highlights, the highlights were output estimates in comparison with November: rice (1.8%), oat grain (11.5%), potatoes - 2n crop (3.3%), potatoes - 3rd crop (7.0%), coffea arábica (4.7%), onion (2.4%), barley grain (8.3%), bean seed - 2nd crop (-4.8%), sorghum grain (1.3%) and wheat grain (4.7%).

PADDY RICE - The production of rice reached 10.6 million metric tons in 2016, with an increase of 1.8% versus the figure in the previous month. The harvested area and the average yield recorded slight change of 0.9% each, mainly due to the update of production in the North, mainly in the state of Tocantins, where production was confirmed at 503.8 thousand metric tons. This increase resulted from the adoption of a new variety of rice, resistent to water stress and plagues, which reduced the expectancy of loss in the state.

POTATO – The production of potatoes amounted to 3 935 438 metric tons in the three crops of this product, with increase of 2.7% in relation to the previous month. Changes were bigger in the 2nd and 3rd crops, 3.3% and 7.0%, respectively. In the 2nd crop, results were mainly influenced by Minas Gerais and Paraná, with increases of 6.4% and 6.5%, respectively. In these two states, the planted areas increased by 6.3% and 5.6%, respectively, as a result of the good prices of this product.

COFFEA ARABICA (bean) – With crops being benefited by the rainy weather, the national output of coffea arabica in 2016 was 2,586,188 metric tons, or 43.1 million 60 kg sacks, representing na increase of 4.7% in relation to the previous month. National data reflected adjutments observed in Minas Gerais, the main national producer, expected to account for more of the 70% of the total harvest of 2016. The GCEA/MG reevaluated the output of Minas Gerais at 1,817,883 metric tons, or 30.3 million 60 kg sacks, an increase of 6.2% versus the figure in the previous month. The area to be harvested and the average yield increased 0.6% and 5.5%, respectively. The output of São Paulo state is expected to reach 364,260 metric tons, with hike of 2.9% versus the November result.

ONION – The national output of onions (1.6 million metric tons) increased 2.4% in comparison with the November result. The readjustment of 1.8% in the harvested area was the main factor contributing to the increase of the output estimate in the month. In Santa Catarina, the output estimate is 536.6 thousand metric tons, with hike of 3.8% in relation to November. The harvested area was estimated at 21,515 hectares, increased 1.5%, and the average yield was estimated at 24,941 kg/ha, recording increase of 2.3%. In Goiás, the area planted with onions (2,549 hectares) increased 69.9% in relation to the November figure and the average yield fell by 19.0%.

WINTER CEREALS (grain) – The production of oats reached 865,628 metric tons in December, with increase of 11.5% in comparison with the November result. The data were influenced by Rio Grande do Sul, which had an expected output increase of 15.5%. The output estimate in Santa Catarina increased 11.5% in the month. For barley, the estimate increased 8.3% from November to December. The data were mainly influenced by Rio Grande do Sul, the estimate of which increased 20.4%. In relation to wheat, output in the country reached 6,719,519 metric tons in 2016, with increase of 4.7% versus the previous month. In Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, increases of 13.6% and 11.8% in wheat output are expected.

BEAN SEED – The national output of beans decreased by 2,1% this month, and ended the year with an output of 2.6 million metric tons. In December, beans - 2nd crop recorded the biggest change in comparison with November results (-4.8%), with significant decrease in the Northeast (-22.2%), a Region severely affected by drought. The main negative reevaluations came from Pernambuco (-63.3%), Paraíba (-59.6%), Sergipe (-29.9%) and Maranhão (-10.9%), mainly due to the lack or rain.

CORN GRAIN -The output reached 63.4 million metric tons, 0.3% less than in November. The decrease of 0.6% in the estimated area to be harvested was the main factor accounting for the change of the previous quarter. The output of 1st harvest corn was 24.3 million metric tons. The most influential Federation Units regarding the increase of output estimate, versus November figures, were: Federal District (+81.8%); Goiás, (+3.3%) and Tocantins (+23.5%). The December evaluations for corn 2nd crop {ut1}2nd crop{ut2} were smaller by 171.5 thousand metric tons, with a negative change of 0.4% in comparison with November data. The negative reevaluation of the area to be harvested by 0.7% led to a smaller output estimate, evaluated at 39.0 million metric tons. The negative changes in output for corn - 2nd crop were recorded in Paraná (-0.9%), Pernambuco (-89.6%), Sergipe (-13.3%), Federal District (-16.7%), Mato Grosso do Sul (-0.3%), Minas Gerais (-0.3%) and Rondônia (-0.1%).

SOYBEANS - The production of soybeans was 0.3% smaller than in the previous month, with absolute decrease by 273,118 metric tons. With the end of harvest, the GCEAs of states remain making the necessary adjustements in data, according to information obtained from field surveys. In this December evaluation, the positive adjustments were observed in Tocantins (3.4%), Federal District (14.1%) and Rio Grande do Sul (0.1%). Reductions in the output estimate took place in Rondônia (-17.9%), Paraná (-0.9%), Maranhão (-2.3%), Goiás (-0.2%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (-0.2%). The states which reported decrease in the production of soybeans are related to the lowest evaluations of respective average yields. The exception in this group was Mato Grosso do Sul, which had its output estimate reduced due to the smaller area taken up by this crops.

SORGHUM GRAIN – The production of sorghum in 2016 reached 1,168,904 metric tons, an increase of 1.3% versus the figure in the previous month. The area to be harvested recorded an increase of 0.7%, whereas the average yield increased 0.6%. The change of data resulted from the readjustments effected in the estimates of São Paulo and Federal District, where there were increases of 13.2% and 75.0%, respectively. For São Paulo, the GCEA/SP increased by 25.4% in terms of the area planted with this cereal. In the Federal District, the average yield was readjusted by 75.0%, according to GCEA/DF. In these states, sorghum is being produced at 2nd crop, the estimates of which are subject to bigger changes in relation to the 1st crop, which has been longer consolidated.

December estimate in relation to the output reached in 2015

The estimates for the 26 main products show that ten of them recorded increases versus results of 2015: oat grain (71.4%), potatoes - 2nd crop (3.1%), potatoes - 3rd crop (10.4%), coffee bean - arabica (29.7%), onions (8.2%), barley grain (96.5%), bean grain - 3rd crop (6.4%), cassava (2.8%), wheat grain (22.0%) and triticale grain (30.4%). Sixteen products recorded negative changes: upland cottonseed (-17.0%), peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (-10.2%), peanuts in the shell – 2nd crop (-32.3%), paddy rice (-14.0), potatoes- 1st crop (-2.9%), cacao nuts (-21.4%), coffee beans (canephora) (28.1%), sugarcane (-2.7%), bean seed - 1st crop (-16.4%), bean seed - 2nd crop (-25.1%), oranges (-4.6%), castor beans (-52.7%), corn grain - 1st crop (-16.1%), corn grain - 2nd crop (-30.7%), soybean grain (-1.8%) and sorghum grain (-45.3%).

For 2017, harvest is expected to surpass the 2016 figure by 16.1%

In the third projection for the 2017 harvest, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was estimated at 213.7 million metric tons, 16.1% above the amount harvested in 2016. Increases are estimated in all the Major Regions: North (13.4%), Northeast (73.0%), Southeast (11.1%), South (5.8%) and Central West (20.5%). The main influences on these changes were the increase of 9.6% in the estimated soybean production (9.2 million metric tons more than in 2016) and of 31.0% in the output of corn (19.6 million metric tons more than in 2016. In this third estimate, projections account for 19.6% and field data represented 80.4% of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds expected for 2017.

UPLAND COTTONSEED – For the 2017 harvest the estimate points to 3.6 million metric tons of cotton, 6.9% above the 2016 harvest, but with a decrease of 1.8% in relation to the second estimate. In spite of the decrease of planted area in comparison with 2016 figures {ut1}(-5.0%), improvement in climate conditions is expected, as well as increase of 12.3% in the national average yield. The output of cotton in Mato Grosso is expected to grow 1.4% and in Bahia, with a hike of 15.0% versus the 2016 figure.

PADDY RICE – For 2017, the expected output is 11,587,485 metric tons, with average yield of 5,920 kg/ha, respectively 9.5% and 8.5% bigger than the previous harvest. The planted area is 2.0% smaller. In Rio Grande do Sul, the biggest producer (71.8% of the nationa output), expects to harvest a total 8,315,795 metric tons, in an area to be harvested of 1,091,728 hectares, with an average yield of 7,632 kg/ha, respectively 11.0%, 2.6% and 8.2%, bigger than in the previous harvest. Santa Catarina, the second main producer, expects to harvest 1,078,015 metric tons, with an average yield of 7,305 kg/ha, respectively 2.6% and 2.5% bigger in relation to 2015.

COFFEE BEAN – The estimate for this 2017 harvest reached 2,666,727 metric tons, or 44.4 million 60 kg sacks, with coffea arabica accounting for 80.1% of the total (2,153,410 metric tons) and conillon for 19.9% (513,317 metric tons). For coffea arabica, the estimated output is expected to decrease 16.7% in relation to the 2016 figure, considering that, in the year, harvest was stimulated by favorable climate conditions, notably in the main producing states. Besides, 2016 was considered a year of positive biennial period, that is, because crops recorded more results in terms of output, a physiological characteristic of this type of coffee, which alternates between high and output figurfes from one year to the other. As for conillon coffee, the expected output is 513,317 metric tons, with increase of 9.6% in 2017, since, in 2016, Espírito Santo, the main national producer, had its harvest damaged by a drought which affected the main municipalities in the state. The GCEA/ES expects an increase of 5.2% in the output estimate of the state, in spite of a decrease of 25.8% in planted area. The average yield is expected to increase by 14.6% in relation to the previous year.

BEAN SEED – The estimated total output of 2017 is expected to be 3.3 million metric tons, with increase of 26.9% in relation to 2015. It is important to highlight that, for the calculation of estimates for 2nd and 3rd crops, a relevant portion of data is still formed by projections which refer to the calculation of averages in the last five years, extreme figures discarded. This significant increase in the area to be harvested, estimated at 1,792,603 hectares, 23.9% bigger than in the previous year, when many crops of the Northeast Region were affected by drought. The increase of estimates of planted area and area to be harvested results from the good prices of this product, which remained at a high level in 2016. The average yield is also expected to increase (13.0%), and reach 905 kg/ha. The output of 2nd and 3rd crop beans is expected to reach 1,186,834 metric tons and 495,856 metric tons, respectively.

CORN GRAIN – The production estimate for corn in 2017 is 8,968,329 metric tons, with an increase of 31.0% in relation to the previous year. For corn - 1st crop, the output estimate is 29,474,266 metric tons, 21.% above that in the previous period, marked by significant decreases due to harsh climate conditions. Minas Gerais has the biggest planted area of corn - 1st crop, 895.550 hectares, superando by 5.6% the area planted in the previous year. In Rio Grande do Sul, increase of 17.7% in comparison with the same period in the previous year is estimated. Santa Catarina, which produces the biggest volume of corn - 1st crop, there is also an estimate of a good productivity in the State, because of the investment in high technlogy seeds, with a projections for an average yield to reach 7,718kg/ha, an increase of 9.9% in relation to the previous harvest. In terms of 2nd crop, an increase of 37.1% is expected.

SOJA (em grão) – The third output estimate for 2017 is positive, with 9.6% of increase in relation to the output of 2016, and it can reach 104,915,837 metric tons. A new record is possible in the national production of this grain. In Mato Grosso, the main producing state, the estimate is for an increase of 10.6%, and a possible output of 29,050,148 metric tons.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals (rice, corn, oat, rye, barley, sorghum, wheat and triticale), Legumes (peanuts and beans) and Oilseeds (cotton seed, castor beans, soybeans and sunflower) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in March, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.