In the seasonally-adjusted series, the national industrial output remained unchanged (0.0%) in May 2016 over the immediately previous month, after registering positive rates in March (1.4%) and April (0.2%). Compared with the same month in the previous year in the series not seasonally adjusted, the overall industry dropped 7.8% in May 2016, recording the 27th consecutive negative rate in this type of comparison, above that recorded last April (-6.9%).

Therefore, the industrial sector recorded a cumulative reduction of 9.8% in the first five months in 2016. Considering the drop of 9.5% in May 2016, the annualized rate – cumulative indicator in the last 12 months – virtually repeated the decline of 9.6% reported in March and April 2016, when the index posted the most intense loss since October 2009 (-10.3%). The complete publication of the Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM-PF) can be accessed here.

Industrial Output Indicators by Major Economic Categories
Brazil - May 2016

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria
*Seasonally-adjusted series

12 of 24 sectors surveyed increase in May

In the null change (0.0%) of the industrial activity between April and May, 12 out of the 24 sectors surveyed registered positive rates, highlighted by the advance of 4.8% recorded by motor vehicles, trailers and bodies. Other important positive contributions to the overall industry came from toiletries, soap, cleaning and personal hygiene products (3.6%), mining and quarrying industries (1.4%) and basic metals (3.4%).

It is also worth highlighting the positive figures reported by other transportation equipment (9.5%), beverages (2.2%), pulp, paper and paper products (2.0%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (4.3%) and rubber and plastic products (2.0%).

Among the 11 sectors that reduced the production in May, the most relevant performances for the overall average came from food products, which retreated 7.0%, and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-8.2%).

Still comparing with the immediately previous month, durable consumer goods registered the sharpest expansion in May 2016. By advancing 5.6%, it interrupted four consecutive months of negative rates, when it registered a cumulative loss of 13.0%. The segment of capital goods (1.5%) also increased in May and recorded the fifth consecutive positive rate, posting a cumulative gain of 9.0% in this period.

On the other hand, the sectors producing semi and non-durable consumer goods (-1.4%) and intermediate goods (-0.7%) registered negative rates in May 2016, the former recording the second consecutive month of drop in the production and posting a reduction of 2.2% in the cumulative rate in this period; and the latter retreating once again, after increasing 0.5% in the previous month.

Quarterly moving average changes 0.6%

Still concerning the seasonally-adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the overall industry expanded 0.6% in the quarter ended in May 2016, against the level of the previous month, interrupting the downward trend started in October 2014.

Among the major economic categories, in relation to the marginal movement of this index, capital goods (2.2%) recorded the sharpest advance in May. The sector producing durable consumer goods (0.3%) also posted a positive rate. On the other hand, the segments of semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.5%) and intermediate goods (-0.1%) also registered negative rates.

Industrial output falls 7.8% in relation to May 2015

Compared with the same month a year ago, the industrial sector dropped 7.8% in May 2016, pointing to a widespread profile of negative figures and reaching the four major economic categories, 21 out of the 26 sectors, 62 out of the 79 groups and 67.5% out of the 805 products surveyed. It is worth mentioning that May 2016 (21 days) had one more business day than the same month in the previous year (20).

Among the activities, coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-13.4%), mining and quarrying industries (-11.9%) and motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-15.8%) exerted the greatest negative influences on the industry average.

Other relevant negative contributions to the national overall came from basic metals (-10.3%), non-metallic mineral products (-12.4%), fabricated metal products (-12.1%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-17.5%), machinery and equipment (-7.1%), other transportation equipment (-18.3%), wearing apparel and accessories (-12.3%), maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-17.4%), tobacco products (-28.7%), rubber and plastic products (-6.4%), miscellaneous manufacturing (-17.7%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-8.0%) and furniture (-16.9%).

Still comparing with May 2015, the activity of food products (3.8%) exerted the main positive pressure in May. It is also worth highlighting the positive impact recorded by the sector of pulp, paper and paper products (4.8%) and beverages (4.4%).

Still comparing with the same month a year ago, durable consumer goods (-17.4%) and capital goods (-11.4%) registered the steepest declines among the major economic categories in May 2016. The sectors producing intermediate goods (-8.1%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (-2.1%) also recorded negative figures in May, the former retreating slightly faster than the national average (-7.8%), and the latter posting the most moderate loss among the economic categories.

The segment of durable consumer goods declined 17.4% in the monthly index of May 2016, registering the 27th consecutive negative figure in this type of comparison, though less intense than that in the previous month (-23.6%). In May, this sector was particularly pressed by the reduced manufacture of cars (-20.2%) and brown goods (-15.2%), influenced, at a great extent, by reduced shifts and collective vacations in a number of producing units. Other important negative impacts came from motorcycles (-18.8%), other household appliances (-19.0%), furniture (-16.2%) and white goods (-1.8%).

Having declined 11.4% in May 2016, the sector producing capital goods registered the 27th consecutive negative rate in the monthly index, though less intense than that reported in the previous month (-16.0%). This segment was influenced by the decline reported by the majority of its groups, highlighted by the reduction of 12.5% in capital goods for transportation equipment. The other negative rates were registered by capital goods for mixed use (-31.4%), for industrial use (-2.7%), agricultural (-9.4%) and construction (-18.5%), whereas capital goods for electricity (2.4%) recorded the only positive result in May 2016.

In the comparison with the same month a year ago, the production of intermediate goods (-8.1%) in May 2016 recorded the 26th consecutive negative rate, slightly more intense than that reported in the previous month (-7.3%). The May result was mainly explained by the retreats in products associated with the activities of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-17.9%), mining and quarrying industries (-11.9%), basic metals (-10.3%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-14.9%), non-metallic mineral products (-12.3%), fabricated metal products (-11.1%), rubber and plastic products (-6.5%), textiles (-4.8%), machinery and equipment (-3.7%) and other chemicals (-0.8%), whereas the positive pressures were registered by food products (7.5%) and pulp, paper and paper products (5.7%). It is also worth mentioning the reductions reported by the groups of typical inputs for civil construction (-11.0%), which registered the 27th consecutive retreat in the comparison against the same month last year, and of packaging (-1.6%), which recorded the 17th consecutive negative rate.

The manufacture of semi and non-durable consumer goods declined 2.1% in May 2016, after advancing 2.5% last April. The performance in May was mainly explained by the decline posted in the groups of semi-durable (-9.7%). The sub-sectors of non-durable (-1.5%) and fuels (-1.8%) also recorded negative figures in May. On the other hand, the group of food and beverages for domestic consumption (0.7%) registered the only positive figure in this category.

Industry cumulatively declines 9.8% in 2016

In the cumulative index for the January-May 2016 period, over the same period in the previous year, the industrial sector dropped 9.8%. Negative rates prevailed, since the four major economic categories, 23 out of the 26 sectors, 63 out of the 79 groups and 75.4% out of the 805 products surveyed declined their production.

Having declined 24.2% and 14.4%, respectively, the activities of motor vehicles and mining and quarrying industries exerted the highest negative influence on the industry average. Other relevant negative contributions to the national overall came from machinery and equipment (-18.3%), basic metals (-13.4%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-29.8%), fabricated metal products (-15.6%), rubber and plastic products (-12.8%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-4.2%), non-metallic mineral products (-12.5%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-15.0%), other transportation equipment (-22.9%), wearing apparel and accessories (-11.6%), textiles (-13.0%), furniture (-15.8%) and other chemicals (-3.2%).

Among the three activities that increased the production in the first five months in 2016, the main influence was registered by food products (2.7%). The other positive figures were recorded by the sector of pulp, paper and paper products (3.1%) and pharm-chemicals and pharmaceuticals (2.4%).

Among the major economic categories, the behavior of the results for the first five months of 2016 showed lower dynamism for durable consumer goods (-24.7%) and capital goods (-23.0%), especially pushed by the reduction in the manufacture of cars (-24.4%) and household appliances (-27.7%) in the former, and in capital goods for transportation equipment (-23.5%) in the latter.

The segments of intermediate goods (-9.2%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (-2.4%) also registered negative rates in the cumulative index in the year. The former segment declining below the magnitude of the drop of the national average (-9.8%), and the latter recording the most moderate decline among the major economic categories.