The ninth estimate for 2016 of the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds added up to 183.9 million tonnes, 12.3% lower than that in 2015 (209.6 million tonnes). In absolute terms, less 25.7 million tonnes were expected in relation to the production in the previous harvest. The comparison with the August forecast registered a drop of 1.2%, representing a reduction of 2.2 million tonnes.

The area to be harvested was of 57.1 million hectares, 0.7% smaller than last year (57.5 million hectares), a reduction of 0.4% in September, representing 236,580 hectares.

Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group, which altogether represented 92.6% of the production estimate and accounted for 87.9% of the area to be harvested. The area for soybeans increased 2.8%, the area for corn reduced 1.3% and the area for rice reduced 9.7% in relation to the previous year. The estimates for production were negative: -1.4% for soybeans, -14.9% for rice and -25.2% for corn, when compared with 2015.

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In regional terms, the volume of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds registered the following distribution: Central-West, 75.3 million tonnes; South, 72.7 million tonnes; Southeast, 19.6 million tonnes; Northeast, 9.8 million tonnes and North, 6.5 million tonnes. Compared with the previous harvest, this harvest was reduced by 2.1% in the Southeast Region, by 14.9% in the North Region, by 40.1% in the Northeast Region, by 16.1% in the Central-West Region and by 4.1% in the South Region. In this survey, Mato Grosso led the national production of grains with a contribution of 24.1%, followed by Paraná (19.2%) and Rio Grande do Sul (17.1%). These states, together, accounted for 60.4% of the national forecast.

September estimate in relation to August 2016

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production highlighted the following changes in the production estimates in September over August: upland cotton (-2.0%), cocoa (-11.9%), coffea arabica (3.3%), coffea canephora (-2.7%), bean seed - 1st crop (-0.9%), bean seed - 2nd crop (-6.6%), bean seed - 3rd crop (-1.7%), cassava (7.8%), corn grain 1st crop (-1.0%), corn grain 2nd crop (-3.4%) and sorghum (-5.7%).

COTTONSEED - The 2016 forecast was reduced by 2.0% over the previous month, changing to 3.3 million tonnes, due to reassessments in the production of Mato Grosso and Piauí.

CACAO NUTS - The production estimated in September was of 214,497 tonnes, 11.9% below that of the previous month. The planted area and the area to be harvested remained unchanged. Having recorded 303 kg/ha, the expected average yield reduced by 12.2%.  These data reflected the estimates in Pará, which dropped 25.3% both in the production and in the average yield.

COFFEE BEANS - The estimated production reached 2.9 million tonnes or 48.9 million 60-kg sacks, representing an increase of 2.3% against the previous month. In September, the estimated production of arabica grew 3.3%, whereas that of canephora (conillon) reduced 2.7%. In Minas Gerais, the biggest producer of arabica, the harvest approached its end, reaffirming its outstanding harvest and posting a recovery after two years of declining production. This state expected to harvest 1.7 million tonnes or 28.5 million 60-kg sacks, representing an increase of 3.7% over the previous month. São Paulo, another important producer, also had its harvest reassessed, registering an increase of 8.0% over the previous month. The expected production was of 354 thousand tonnes or 5.9 million 60-kg sacks. On the other hand, the estimated production of conillon – which is mostly produced in Espírito Santo – remained dropping in terms of harvested area, production and average yield.

BEAN SEED - The overall production of beans fell 3.3% in September. Nevertheless, the drop hit 15.3% in the year. Beans - 1st crop dropped 0.9% due to the drought that affected the Northeast Region, causing reassessments in the estimates of the states of Piauí (-31.6%), Pernambuco (-10.8%) and Rio Grande do Norte (-4.5%). Beans - 2nd crop was also reassessed (-6.6%), sharply dropping in Bahia (-46.3%), where the drought affected the Northeast mesoregion of this state, one of the main producing areas. The reduction in Pará and Espírito Santo was of 4.2% and 2.8%, respectively, due to the reassessment of the harvested area. In Rio Grande do Norte, the planted area increased 166.7%, as well as the average yield, which rose 57.6%, as 250 ha of beans were planted with irrigation. Beans - 3rd crop decreased 1.7%, dropping 9.1% in São Paulo and 2.6% in Mato Grosso, as a result of reassessments in the average yield.

CASSAVA - The estimated production of cassava should reach 24.1 million tonnes, representing an increase of 7.8% over the previous month. The September information brought an increase of 4.5% in the area to be harvested and of 3.2% in the average yield. These data reflected the information from Pará, which reported a rise of 45.8% in the estimated production, 20.5% in the planted area, 19.7% in the area to be harvested and 21.9% in the average yield. Pará should produce 6.1 million tonnes of roots and should account for 25.3% of the expected production in Brazil.

CORN GRAIN - The production was estimated at 63.8 million tonnes, 2.5% lower than that reported in August. The first crop of corn posted a new reduction in the production. 24.3 million tonnes were expected, representing a decrease of 1.0% over August (-255,786 t). The harvested area was also reduced by 0.9% and estimated at 5.1 million hectares. When compared with August, the Federation Units that mostly influenced the reduction in the expected production were: Santa Catarina, which reduced 170,637 tonnes (-6.3%); Piauí, less 49,690 tonnes (-8.2%); São Paulo, less 27,870 tonnes (-1.0%); Ceará, less 5,458 tonnes (-4.2%); and Pernambuco, less 3,044 tonnes (-9.8%). Mato Grosso was the only state that registered an increase of 1.1% in the production, due to the identification of new planting areas. When compared with August, the September assessments for corn 2nd crop were 1.4 million tonnes lower (-3.4%) The reduction of 2.8% in the average yield was responsible for the lower expected production, estimated at 39.5 million tonnes. The negative forecasts of production that mostly influenced this survey were in Mato Grosso, less 701,031 tonnes (-4.4%); Paraná, less 393,201 tonnes (-3.6%); Bahia, less 139,200 tonnes (-33.9%); Minas Gerais, less 118,048 tonnes (-12.9%); Sergipe, less 55,573 tonnes (-22.8%); and Piauí, less 36,401 tonnes (-46.8%). São Paulo, with more 58,923 tonnes (+4.2%) and Acre, with more 382 tonnes (+34.9%) changed positively. 

SORGHUM GRAIN - The estimated production of sorghum in 2016 reached 1.1 million tonnes, representing a drop of 5.7% over the previous month, and the average yield fell 5.3%. These data mainly reflected the lower estimated production in Minas Gerais, the second biggest producer in Brazil. The new estimate was of 348.5 thousand tonnes, representing a drop of 12.6% over the previous month, due to the reassessment of the average yield, which retreated 12.8%.  São Paulo recorded a decline of 16.6% in the estimated production over the previous month, as well as a drop of 7.8% in the area to be harvested and of 9.6% in the average yield.

September 2016 estimate in relation to the production of 2015

Seven out of the 26 major products increased their production estimate over the previous year: oat grain (45.4%), coffee beans - arabica (23.6%), onions (4,1%), barley grain (66.8%), cassava (4.3%), wheat grain (12.8%) and triticale grain (32.3%). Nineteen products posted a negative change: upland cottonseed (-19.5%), peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (-9.8%), peanuts in the shell – 2nd crop (-26.6%), paddy rice (-14.9%), potatoes - 1st crop (-3.1%), potatoes - 2nd crop (-7.2%), potatoes - 3rd crop (-6.0%), cacao nuts (-21.5%), coffee beans - canephora (28.2%), sugarcane (-1.9%), bean seed - 1st crop (-14.5%), bean seed - 2nd crop (-20.6%), bean seed - 3rd crop (-2,4%), oranges (-4,9%), castor beans (-51.9%), corn grain 1st crop (-16.1%), corn grain 2nd crop (-29.8%), soybean grain (-1.4%) and sorghum grain (-45.9%).

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals (rice, corn, oat, rye, barley, sorghum, wheat and triticale), Legumes (peanuts and beans) and Oilseeds (cotton seed, castor beans, soybeans and sunflower) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in March, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.