Still concerning the seasonally-adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the overall industry pointed to an expansion of 0.8% in the quarter ended in February 2017 over the previous month, after also increasing in January 2017 (0.9%) and December last year (0.6%), when it interrupted the downward trend started in July 2016. In regional terms, 11 places registered positive rates. The steepest advances were recorded in Goiás (3.7%), Ceará (2.3%), Santa Catarina (2.3%), Rio Grande do Sul (2.0%), Minas Gerais (1.8%), Espírito Santo (1.4%) and the Northeast Region (1.2%). The major falls were reported in Pernambuco (-1.5%) and Amazonas (-0.8%).

Industry drops in 9 of 15 places surveyed in relation to February 2016

In the comparison with the same month in the previous year, the industrial sector reduced 0.8% in February 2017, showing negative figures in nine out of the 15 places surveyed. It is worth mentioning that February 2017 (18 days) had one business day less than the same month in the previous year (19). 

Mato Grosso (-11.0%) posted the most intense loss this month, mainly pressed by the decline in the production of the sector of food products (frozen, fresh and cooled beef, cakes, bagasses, bran and other residues from soybean oil extraction and crude soybean oil). Bahia (-4.6%), Pará (-4.2%), Espírito Santo (-3.2%), Ceará (-2.5%), Pernambuco (-2.2%), the Northeast Region (-2.1%) and São Paulo (-1.6%) also registered higher losses than the industry average (-0.8%). The production in Goiás (-0.2%) also retreated this month.

The advances were mainly recorded in Amazonas (5.6%), leveraged, at a great extent, by the positive behavior of the sector of computer equipment, electronic and optical products (TV sets). The other positive figures were reported in Santa Catarina (4.1%), Paraná (4.0%), Minas Gerais (3.5%), Rio de Janeiro (3.4%) and Rio Grande do Sul (0.5%).

Cumulative index in the year grows in 10 of 15 places

The national output increased in ten out of the 15 places surveyed in the January-February 2017 period, against the same period last year. The sharpest advances were registered in Amazonas (6.6%) and Pernambuco (6.5%).

The other places that recorded positive figures in the end of the first two months of 2017 were Goiás (4.9%), Espírito Santo (4.8%), Santa Catarina (4.8%), Rio de Janeiro (4.1%), Paraná (4.1%), Minas Gerais (4.1%), Pará (2.9%) and Mato Grosso (0.3%). The greater dynamism was particularly influenced by factors related with the expanding manufacture of capital goods, especially those for the agriculture and construction sectors; of intermediate goods (iron ores, petroleum, pulp, steel and iron industry, VHP sugar and residues from soybean oil extraction); of durable consumer goods (cars, white and brown goods); and of semi and non-durable consumer goods (food products, textiles and wearing apparel).

On the other hand, Bahia (-10.5%) registered the highest cumulative index in the year, mainly pressed by the negative behavior coming from the sectors of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (diesel fuel, fuel oil and naphtha for the petrochemical industry) and of basic metals (copper and copper alloy bars, profiles and rebars). The other negative figures were recorded in the Northeast Region (-2.6%), Rio Grande do Sul (-1.8%), Ceará (-1.0%) and São Paulo (-0.1%).

In 12 months, industry declines in 14 of 15 places

Having retreated 4.8% in February 2017 for the industry overall, the annualized rate – cumulative indicator in the last 12 months – maintained the pace of decline started in June 2016 (-9.7%). In regional terms, 14 out of the 15 places surveyed recorded negative rates in February 2017, yet 11 of them showed higher dynamism against the index of last January. The major gains of pace between January and February 2017 were reported in Amazonas (from -7.8% to -5.4%), Pernambuco (from -5.5% to -3.4%), Espírito Santo (from -16.0% to -14.9%), Minas Gerais (from -4.5% to -3.5%), Paraná (from -3.2% to -2.3%) and São Paulo (from -4.2% to -3.4%), whereas Mato Grosso (from -0.4% to -2.7%), Pará (from 9.4% to 8.0%) and Bahia (from -7.0% to -8.0%) reported the losses between the two periods.