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Industrial output changes 0.1% in April

June 02, 2016 09h57 AM | Last Updated: January 18, 2018 04h58 PM

 

April 2016 / March 2015
0.1%
April 2016 / April 2015
-7.2%
Cumulative in 2016
-10.5%
Cumulative in 12 months
-9.6%
Quarterly moving average
-0.5%

EIn April 2016, the national industrial output had a slight positive change (0.1%) over March, in the seasonally adjusted series, after a 2.9% drop in February and advanced 1.4% last March. Compared with the same month of the previous year in the unadjusted series, the industry fell (-7.2%), the 26th negative rate in a row in this type of comparison, though less higher than March's (-11.5%).
Thus, the cumulative index in the year dropped (-10.5%), as well as the cumulative index in the last twelve months (-9.6%), which virtually repeated March's rate in 2016 (-9.7%) when it posted its deepest loss since October 2009 (-10.3%). The quarterly moving average in the seasonally adjusted series fell 0.5%. The complete publication of the Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM -PF) can be accessed
here.

The slight increase of 0.1% in the industrial activity between March and April had positive rates in two of the four major economic categories and in 11 of the 24 sectors surveyed. Among the sectors, the main positive impacts were in food products (4.6%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (4.0%), with the first one recording the second high in a row and accumulating in this period a growth of 10.9%; and the last one eliminating part of the drop of 6.7% seen in March. In those segments, the result this month was influenced, to a great extent, by the sugarcane crushing anticipation. Other relevant positive contributions came from mining and quarrying (1.3%), pulp, paper and paper products (2.7%), machinery and equipment (2.0%), beverages (2.4%) and electrical machinery and apparatus (1.9%).

Indicadores da Produção Industrial por Grandes Categorias Econômicas
Brasil - Abril de 2016
Major Economic Activities Change (%)
April 2016/
March 2015*
April 2016/
April 2015
Cumulative
January-April
Cumaultive in the Last
12 Months
Capital Goods
0.1
-7.2
-10.5
-9.6
Intermediate Goods
1.2
-16.5
-25.9
-27.9
Consumer Goods
0.5
-7.5
-9.6
-7.3
   Durable
-0.9
-4
-8.3
-9.3
   Semi-Durable and Non-Durable
-4.4
-23.7
-26.5
-22.3
Industry Overall
-0.6
1.9
-2.8
-5.7
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria
*Seasonally-adjusted series
 

Among the thirteen segments that reduced the output, those of the greatest relevance to the industry overall average were motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-4.5%) and pharmochemicals (-10.9%), with both offsetting the advances seen in the previous month: 2.0% and 10.5%, respectively. Other important negative impacts occurred in toiletries, soaps, cleaning products and personal hygiene articles (-2.6%), basic metals (-2.5%), other transportation equipment (-5.5%), wearing apparel and accessories (-3.1%), fabricated metal products (-1.3%) and tobacco products (-11.9%). Except for the latter, which recorded growth of 2.0% in the previous month, the others fell last March: -0.8%, -2.1%, -1.6%, -1.1% and -0.6%, respectively.

Among the major economic categories, in relation to March, capital goods (1.2%) had the sharpest expansion in April 2016 and the fourth positive consecutive rate, accumulating in the period a gain of 7.7%. These results interrupted three months in a row of decrease, which accumulated a 12.9% reduction. The sector of intermediate goods (0.5%) also increased the output this month and offset part of the 1.8% loss accumulated in February and March. On the other hand, the sectors of durable consumer goods
(-4.4%) and of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-0.6%) dropped, with the first one recording four months of consecutive decline in the output and accumulating in the period a decrease of 13.7%; and the second shrinking again, after a 0.9% advance in the previous month.

In April, quarterly moving average down 0.5%

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the quarterly moving average index for the overall industry declined (-0.5%) in the quarter ended in April 2016 against the level of the previous month, keeping the downward trend started in November 2014. Among the major economic categories, still in the same comparison, durable consumer goods (-3.7%) had the sharpest decrease in the month and increased the pace of decline over what was seen in the months of February (-0.7%) and March (-3.4%). The producing sectors of intermediate goods (-0.5%) and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-0.2%) also recorded negative results in April 2016, with the first one keeping the downward trend initiated in September 2014; and the second one growing again after a slight increase of 0.1% in the previous month. On the other hand, the sector of capital goods (1.7%) recorded the one advance this month, after also growing in March (2.1%) when it interrupted a sequence of negative results initiated in October 2014.

Industry falls 7.2% in relation to April 2015

Compared with April 2015, the industrial sector dropped 7.2% in April 2016, with widespread fall reaching three of the four major economic categories, 21 out of the 26 sectors, 64 out of the 79 groups and 70.9% out of the 805 products surveyed. Among the activities, mining and quarrying (-15.7%) and motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-20.6%) exerted the greatest negative influences on the industry average, pushed, to a great extent, by the items iron ores and crude petroleum oil, in the first; and automobiles, trucks, car parts, vehicles for the transportation of goods, diesel engines for buses and trucks and bodies for trucks, in the second.

Other relevant negative contributions on the national overall came from basic metals
(-14.9%), machinery and equipment (-12.1%), fabricated metal products (-17.1%), computer, electronic and optical products (-24.8%), other transportation equipment (-25.7%), rubber products and plastic material (-10.5%),  non-metallic mineral products (-9.6%), other chemicals (-6.6%), wearing apparel and accessories (-12.9%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-8.7%), petroleum products and biofuels (-2.0%) and furniture (-15.4%).

On the other hand, in relation to April 2015, the activity of food products (12.3%) exerted the greatest positive pressure, leveraged, to a great extent, by the advance in the output of crystallized and VHP sugar. It is also worth mentioning the impacts seen in the sectors of beverages (7.3%), of pulp, paper and paper products (5.5%) and pharmaceuticals (7.9%), influenced, to a great extend, by the highest manufacture of the items beer, draft beer and soft drinks, in the first sector; chemical wood pulp (pulp), in the second one; and medicine, in the last one.

Comparing with the same month in 2015, durable capital goods (-23.7%) and capital goods (-16.5%) recorded, in April 2016, the sharpest drops among the major economic categories. The producing sector of intermediate goods (-7.5%) also recorded negative results this month and with an intensity slightly above the national average (-7.2%). On the other hand, the sector of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods, with an expansion of 1.9%, was the only one presenting a positive rate.

The segment of durable consumer goods fell 23.7% in the monthly index of April, the 26th negative rate in a row in this kind of comparison, though slightly below that of the previous month's (-24.8%). The segment was particularly influenced by the lower manufacture of cars (-25.8%) and brown goods (-24.3%), influenced to a great extent by reductions in working hours and collective vacation in several producing units. Other important negative impacts came from motorcycles (-35.5%), other household appliances (-12.8%), furniture (-14.4%) and white goods (-4.2%).

The producing sector of capital goods (-16.5%) registered the 26th consecutive negative result in the monthly index, but posted a less intense drop than the one seen in the previous month (-24.2%). In the formation of April's index in 2016, the segment was influenced by the decrease seen in the greatest part of the groups, with a clear highlight to the reduction of 16.6% of capital goods for transportation equipment, pushed, mainly, by the lowest manufacture of trucks, ships for the transportation of passengers or cargo (including tankers and platforms), airplanes and vehicles and rail cars for the transportation of goods. The other negative rates were registered by capital goods for miscellaneous use (-20.9%), agricultural use (-31.7%), construction (-29.2%) and industrial purposes (-0.8%), whereas capital goods for electricity (4.8%) recorded the only positive result in April 2016.

In the comparison with April 2015, the production of intermediate goods (-7.5%) registered the 25th consecutive negative result, less intense than the one seen in the previous month (-11.1%). Such result was mainly explained by the drops in the products associated to the activities of mining and quarrying (-15.7%), basic metals (-14.9%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-20.0%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-9.4%), fabricated metal products (-18.7%), other chemicals (-6.7%), rubber products and plastic material (-10.6%), non-metallic mineral products (-9.6%) and textiles (-10.4%), whereas the positive influences were registered by food products (29.4%), pulp, paper and paper products (7.4%) and machinery and equipment (10.0%). In that same economic category, it is worth mentioning the decrease in the groups of typical civil construction input (-12.7%), which got the 26th drop in a row in the comparison with the previous month, and of packaging (-4.4%), with the 16th negative consecutive rate.

The output high of 1.9% in the semi- and non-durable consumer goods in April interrupted seventeen months of consecutive negative rates in the comparison with the same month in 2015. This performance was mainly attributed to the advance of the group fuels (21.1%), leveraged by the rise in the manufacturing of ethyl alcohol and of motor gasoline. The sub-sectors of food and beverages for domestic consumption (2.4%) and of non-durable goods (3.2%) also had positive results this month. Conversely, the group of semi-durables (-12.9%) had the only negative result of the category, pushed, to a great extent, by the reduction in the output of cell phones, leather footwear, pants, DVDs, shirts, shorts, jumpsuits and the like in cotton, coats and sport outfit and shirts, blouses and the like for female use.

In 2016, industry accumulates a drop of 10.5%

In the cumulative index in the year, over the same period in the previous year, the industrial sector posted a decrease of 10.5%, with widespread fall, since the four major economic categories, 22 of the 26 segments, 65 of the 79 groups and 76.0% of the 805 products surveyed had reduction in the production. Among the activities, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-26.1%) and mining and quarrying (-15.0%) exerted the biggest negative influence in the formation of the industry average, pushed, to a great extent, by the items automobiles, trucks, car parts, vehicles for the transportation of goods, chassis with bus and truck engines, bodies for buses and trucks, diesel engines for buses and trucks and tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers in the first activity; and iron ores and crude petroleum oil, in the second one.

Other relevant negative contributions came from machinery and equipment (-20.9%), basic metals (-14.2%), computer, electronic and optical products (-32.6%), fabricated metal products (-16.6%), rubber products and plastic material (-14.5%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-17.4%), non-metallic mineral products (-12.6%), other transportation equipment (-24.1%), wearing apparel and accessories (-12.2%), textiles (-14.6%), other chemicals (-3.9%) and furniture (-15.6%).

On the other hand, among the four activities that increased the output in the first four months of 2016, the major influence was seen in food products (2.2%), leveraged, to a great extent, by the advance seen in the manufacture of crystallized sugar. The other positive results were recorded by the sectors of pulp, paper and paper products (2.6%), of pharmaceuticals (2.7%) and of tobacco products (12.6%), mostly due to the items chemical wood pulp (pulp), in the first sector; medicine, in the second; and cigarettes, in the last one.

Among the major economic categories, the profile of results for the cumulative index in the year in the first four months of 2016 recorded less dynamism in durable consumer goods (-26.5%) and in capital goods (-25.9%), mainly affected by the decrease of the manufacture of cars (-25.4%) and household appliances (-31.7%), in the former one, and transportation equipment (-25.9%), in the latter. The segments of intermediate goods (-9.6%) and of semi-and non-durable consumer goods (-2.8%) also registered negative rates in the cumulative index of the first quarter of the year. The former segment declining below the magnitude of the drop of the national average (-10.5%), and the latter recording the most moderate decline among the major economic categories.

To sum up, the industrial sector, in April 2016, shows a positive result by the second month in a row, but again, there is a prevalence of negative rates among the industrial sectors surveyed. It is worth highlighting that, even with these two months of growth, the industry overall recovered just part of the 2.9% loss seen last February and is still 20.3% below the record reached in June 2013. In the seasonally adjusted series, there are still signs of lower intensity in the industrial activity, which become clear in the evolution of the quarterly moving average that has kept the downward trend started in October 2014.

In the comparison with the same period of the previous year, the industrial sector kept the drop both in the monthly index in April 2016 (-7.2%) - 26th negative consecutive result in this kind of comparison, as in the cumulative index over the year (-10.5%), both with widespread fall among the major economic categories and the activities surveyed, with a highlight to the drops coming from the sectors of production of durable consumer goods and capital goods.