The retail trade in Brazil started 2015 with increases of 0.8% in the volume of sales and of 1.3% in the nominal revenue, both rates compared with the previous month (seasonally adjusted). The figures returned to positive both in the volume and revenue series, after halting its growth in December (-2.6%). Concerning the variation of the moving average, the rates registered were -0.1% for volume and 0.3% for revenue. In the other comparisons, obtained from the unadjusted original series, the retail recorded, as to the volume of sales, increases of 0.6% against January of the previous year and of 1.8% in the cumulative index in the last 12 months. For the same indicators, the nominal revenue of sales recorded change rates of 6.4% and 8.0%, respectively. The extended retail, which also comprises the activities of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and of construction material, once again posted a seasonally-adjusted positive figure over the previous month (increases of 0.6% both for volume of sales and nominal revenue). Compared with the same month a year ago, the volume of sales dropped -4.9% and the nominal revenue increased 0.5%. As to the cumulative index in the last 12 months, the rates were -2.4% and 3.1% for the volume of sales and for the nominal revenue, respectively. The complete publication of the survey can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/comercio/pmc/.

Retail grows in five of ten activities surveyed

In terms of volume of sales, five out of the ten activities surveyed posted positive figures and one remained stable in the month-over-month relation. The rates were: 12.3% for office, computer and communication material and equipment; 2.4% for furniture and household appliances; 1.4% for pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics; 1.3% for fabric, apparel and footwear; 0.3% for hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco; 0.0% for fuels and lubricants; -0.1% for construction material; -0.5% for vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces; -0.6% for books, newspapers, magazines and stationery; and -0.7% for other personal and household articles.

Considering the volume of sales, five out of the eight activities increased in the January 2015/January 2014 relation. The figures were as follows, in order of contribution to the overall rate: 4.7% for other personal and household articles; 19.0% for office, computer and communication material and equipment; 5.0% for pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics; 0.7% for fuels and lubricants; and 0.2% for hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco. The activities that exerted negative impacts were: furniture and household appliances (-3.1%); books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-10.4%); and fabric, apparel and footwear (-0.7%).

TABLE 1
BRAZIL - INDICATORS OF VOLUME OF SALES IN RETAIL TRADE AND EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE ACCORDING TO GROUPS OF ACTIVITIES: PMC
January 2015

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
(1) Seasonally-adjusted series
(2) The indicator of retail trade comprises the figures of activities numbered 1 to 8.
(3) The indicator of extended retail trade comprises the figures of activities numbered 1 to 10.

As a result of the increase of 4.7% in the volume of sales when compared with January 2014, the highest contribution to the positive inter-annual result of the retail came from other personal and household articles, which comprises department stores, jewelries, sporting goods stores and toy stores. The cumulative rate of the last 12 months was 7.4%. In a scenario of falling pace in the growth of credit and wage bill, this positive figure was influenced by the low unit value of most products traded in this activity and which represented a high volume of sales.  

By increasing 19% in volume of sales against January 2014, office, computer and communication material and equipment registered the second highest positive contribution to the overall retail rate. Such result caused the cumulative rate to stabilize in the last 12 months (0%), after a row of negative rates. The January´s figure was influenced by the sale of Christmas inventories.

By changing 5.0% in volume of sales in the January 2015/January 2014 relation, pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics was responsible for the third highest positive contribution to the overall rate of retail trade. By recording 8.3% in the cumulative index in 12 months, this activity continued to stand out in terms of sectoral performance, which should be specially attributed to the essential nature of its products and to the variation of the prices of medicines below that of IPCA .

By changing 0.7% its volume of sales in relation to the same month a year ago, fuels and lubricants was responsible for the fourth highest impact on the overall figure. The growth rate of the cumulative index in the last 12 months (2.1%) should be attributed to the low increase of fuel prices, which changed 2.4% in 12 months against 7.1% of the overall index, according to IPCA.

The segment of Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco changed 0.2% in volume of sales over January last year, recording the fifth highest positive contribution to the rate. This activity grew 0.9% in the cumulative rate in 12 months until January, below the rate of 1.8% recorded in the retail. By increasing above the average, according to IPCA, the prices of food at home changed 8.0% in the cumulative index in 12 months against 7.1% of the overall index, influencing this performance.

By changing -3.1% in volume of sales over January last year, Furniture and household appliances exerted the highest negative impact on the performance of retail. In terms of cumulative figure in the last 12 months, the rate stood at -0.1%, due to the gradual reduction of incentives - reduction of the Tax on Manufactured Products, IPI - directed to white goods and to the reduced pace of credit.

TABLE 3
BRAZIL - COMPOSITION OF THE MONTHLY RATE OF THE RETAIL TRADE, BY ACTIVITIES: PMC - January 2015 (*)
(Indicators of volume of sales)

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
Note: The composition of the monthly rate corresponds to the contribution of sectoral figures to the formation of the overall rate.

Extended retail falls 4.9% compared with January 2014

The volume of sales in the extended retail trade changed -4.9% in the January 2015/January 2014 relation and -2.4% in the cumulative rate in 12 months. This deceleration was due to the negative performance of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, whose inter-annual result was -16.6%, posting a cumulative rate in 12 months of -10.8%. Among other factors, the reduced sales in this segment was due to the gradual reduction of incentives, like the reduction of IPI; to the reduced pace of credit and to the restrictive budget of families, as a result of the deceleration of the real wage bill.

The volume of sales of Construction material changed -2.8% over January 2014 and -0.6% in the cumulative index in the last 12 months. The performance below the average reflected the expectations on the macroeconomic picture, since the incentives for this sector remained in place, like the level of housing credit, reduced IPI for a basket of construction products and the increased limit of use of the Guaranteed Severance Fund (FGTS) for real state financing.

Retail figures positive in 15 of 27 Federation Units

Of the 27 Federation Units, 15 registered positive changes in terms of volume of sales when comparing January 2015 with the same month a year before (series without adjustment). The highlights were Roraima (26.0%), Amapá (18.4%), Rondônia (8.9%) and Acre (8.3%). Concerning the positive contribution to the retail trade rate, the highlights were, by order: São Paulo (1.0%), Rio de Janeiro (2.5%), Paraná (3.6%) and Santa Catarina (2.2%).

In terms of volume of sales, the seasonally-adjusted figures of January 2015 over the previous month were positive for 23 states, highlighted by: Amapá (8.6%), Sergipe (4.2%), Piauí (3.4%), the Federal District (2.7%) and Ceará (2.4%).

As to the extended retail, 20 states recorded negative changes in the volume of sales when compared with the same period of the previous year, highlighted by the Federal District (-12.2%), followed by Acre (-9.3%), Goiás (-8.8%), São Paulo (-8.4%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-8.4%). The highest positive rates were posted in Amapá (17.3%) and Roraima (10.7%).