In the seasonally-adjusted series, retail sales declined 2.7% in December 2015 over the immediately previous month. In this same comparison, nominal revenue changed -1.9%. For volume of sales, the drop registered in December followed two consecutive months of positive changes in this comparison, when it recorded a cumulative growth of 1.9%. Considering the December´s figure, the moving average indicator for volume of sales returned to the negative side (-0.3%), whereas the rate for nominal revenue remained positive (0.6%). In the seasonally-unadjusted series, total sales dropped 7.1% in relation to December 2014, the ninth negative change in a row in this type of comparison. As a result, the figures for volume of sales were negative both in the fourth quarter of 2015 (-6.9%) and in the end of the year (-4.3%). In both comparisons, they posted the sharpest changes in the time series, started in 2001. As the cumulative indicator in the last 12 months, the annualized rate (-4.3%) maintained the downward trend started in July 2014 (4.3%) and registered its highest loss since November 2003 (-4.6%). In these same comparisons, nominal revenue remained on the positive side, changing: 2.8% against December 2014 and 3.2% in the cumulative index in the year and in the last 12 months.

Concerning the extended retail trade – which includes the activities of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and of construction material in addition to retail –, the changes over the immediately previous month were negative, recording rates of -0.9% for volume of sales and of -0.2% for nominal revenue. Compared with 2014, volume of sales recorded negative figures, retreating 11.0% in relation to December and 8.6% in the cumulative index in the year. Nominal revenue also decreased over December 2014 (-2.7%) and in the last 12 months (-1.9%).

Click here to access the complete publication.

Six of eight activities surveyed register negative changes

In the seasonally-adjusted series, volume of sales declined 2.7% between November and December 2015, with the predominance of negative figures reaching six out of the eight activities that comprise the retail trade. The major highlights were reported in furniture and household appliances (-8.7%), which was showing positive figures in the previous three months, when it recorded a cumulative growth of 7.8%; other personal and household articles (-3.6%), after advancing 4.1% last month; hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (-1.0%), the highest weight in the retail trade, which retreated for the second month in this comparison; fabric, apparel and footwear, which dropped 2.1%, after two months of positive changes, when it posted a cumulative index of 2.1%; and books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-1.4%), which registered the second negative rate in a row.  Office, computer and communication equipment significantly reduced 9.1% in December, offsetting the gain of 18.8% recorded last month. Positive rates were registered in sectors that market part of the essential goods, like pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (0.4%) and fuels and lubricants (0.5%), which advanced after eight consecutive negative rates, when it recorded a cumulative loss of 7.7%. Considering the Extended retail, the change was -0.9%: vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces (0.4%) and construction material (1.1%) remained on the positive side.

In comparison with the same month in the previous year, the retail trade sector dropped 7.1% in December 2015, showing a widespread profile of negative results among the activities which form the retail trade.  The major negative impacts on the overall rate came from the declines of 17.7% in volume of sales in the sector of furniture and household appliances and of 3.7% in the segment of hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco, followed by fabric, apparel and footwear (-10.3%), other personal and household articles (-7.9%) and fuels and lubricants (-10.0%). These five sectors, together, accounted for more than 95% of the overall result of the retail trade.  The other activities posted two-digit negative rates, yet not significantly influencing the inter-annual result of volume of sales in December: office, computer and communication material and equipment (-15.4%) and books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-14.9%). Having advanced 3.1% over December 2014, pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics was the only activity to exert positive pressure.

Retail sales stable in Q4 2015 (0.0%)

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the retail trade remained virtually stable (0.0%) in the fourth quarter of 2015 in relation to the immediately previous quarter, interrupting a sequence of three quarters of fall. In the extended retail, sales retreated 2.0% between the third and fourth quarter. In the seasonally-adjusted series, seven out of the 10 activities surveyed registered negative rates for volume of sales in the fourth quarter of 2015 over the immediately previous quarter: vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces (-4.9%); construction material (-3.8%); fuels and lubricants (-3.7%); office, computer and communication material and equipment (-2.6%); books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-2.8%); other personal and household articles (-1.2%) and fabric, apparel and footwear (-0.8%). On the other hand, pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (2.2%); furniture and household appliances (1.5%) and hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (0.6%) advanced over the third quarter of 2015.

Having declined 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared with the same quarter a year ago, the volume of the retail trade recorded the fourth consecutive negative rate in this comparison and posted its steepest fall in the time series. Except for pharmaceuticals, every activity retreated their sales in the fourth quarter of 2015 against the same period in 2014. The decreasing pace of the retail trade in 2015 was evident in the quarterly analysis, in which the overall rate changed from -0.8% in the first quarter of 2015 to -6.9% in the last quarter of the year. Every activity experienced a deceleration in the retail sales, including that of pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics. Even as the only sector that closes every quarter on the positive side, it also decreased its pace by changing from 5.8% in the first quarter to 1.6% in the fourth quarter.

In the extended retail trade, volume of sales of the fourth quarter of 2015 dropped 12.0% compared with the same period last year, registering the sharpest decline in the time series in this type of comparison. The activity of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces changed -22.7%, whereas the segment of construction material changed -14.2%. Both results also represented the highest drops in the whole time series.

Retail sales drop 4.3% in 2015

Concerning the cumulative index for the January-December 2015 period against the same period a year ago, volume of sales of the retail trade declined 4.3%, recording the highest index in the time series started in 2001. This behavior was followed by a widespread profile of negative rates among the eight activities that comprise the retail trade, from which seven of them closed the year with a decreasing volume of sales. In terms of contribution to the overall result, the highlights were: furniture and household appliances (-14.0%); hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (-2.5%); fabric, apparel and footwear (-8.7%) and fuels and lubricants (-6.2%). The other activities that posted a negative performance were: books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-10.9%); office, computer and communication material and equipment (-1.7%) and other personal and household articles (-1.3%). Compared with 2014, the only sector that increased its volume of sales was pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (3.0%).

Having dropped 14.0% compared with January-December 2014, the sector of furniture and household appliances posted the sharpest reduction in the time series started in 2001, thus contributing with the highest negative impact to the annual rate of the retail trade. Having a sales dynamics associated with the availability of credit and with the evolution of the real wage bill, the underperformed result of this sector was mainly influenced by the increase in the interest rate in credit operations of individuals and by the decrease in the real income between December 2014 and December 2015. The reduced sales of this segment also reflected the elimination of incentives like the reduction of taxes, especially for white goods, which was taking place over the last years.

Having dropped 2.5% at the end of 2015, the sector of hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco registered the sharpest retreat since 2003 (-4.9%) and exerted the second highest negative influence on the reduction of the overall retail trade. The reduction of the real income throughout 2015 and the price increase of food at home, in the same period, were the major responsible for the negative performance of this sector.

Having declined 8.7% in volume of sales in the January-December 2015 cumulative index, the segment of  fabric, apparel and footwear was responsible for the third negative contribution at the end of 2015. This was the biggest drop in its time series.  Even with the clothing prices positioned below the overall index of inflation, this activity cumulatively performed below the overall average of the retail trade, reflecting the loss of purchasing power by families.

Having dropped -6.2% in volume of sales in relation to January-December 2014, fuels and lubricants was the fourth highest negative contribution to the overall result of the retail trade. Below the overall average, this result was influenced by the rise in fuel prices, whose change surpassed the inflation, in addition to the impact due to the reduced pace of the economic activity.

The activity of books, newspapers, magazines and stationery dropped 10.9% in volume of sales over January-December 2014, the steepest drop in its time series. In addition to the reduced real income, the declining pace of this activity was being influenced by the replacement of electronic media for printed products, particularly in the case of newspapers and magazines.

Having reduced its volume of sales by 1.7% in the cumulative index in 2015, office, computer and communication material and equipment reflected not only the reduction of the real income and the increase of the interest rate, but also the migration from desktop computers to more-portable lower-cost equipment, like tablets and smartphones.

Having dropped 1.3% in the cumulative January-December 2015 index, the segment of other personal and household articles – which comprises department stores, glasses shops, jewelry shops, sporting goods stores and toy stores –, registered the first negative change for volume of sales in this type of comparison.

Only pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics closed 2015 with an increasing volume of sales (3.0%). Although this performance could be attributed to the essential nature of its products, this was the lowest increase in the time series of this sector.

The extended retail trade registered a cumulative change of -8.6% in 2015 over last year, the sharpest drop in the time series. This result reflected the sales behavior of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces (17.8%) and construction material (8.4%), the highest declines in their time series. The factors which explained this performance were the deceleration of credit, the gradual reduction of incentives via IPI reduction, the rise of the interest rate and monetary restrictions of families.

Retail results negative in all 27 Federation Units

In the seasonally-adjusted series, retail sales were negative between November and December 2015 in all the 27 Federation Units. The highest rates were reported in Pará (-11.0%), Bahia (-7.2%) and Sergipe (-6.4%).

In the seasonally-unadjusted series, the retail trade also recorded a drop in volume of sales against December 2014 in the 27 states, highlighted in terms of magnitude by Amapá (-24.9%).  Concerning the participation in the negative rate of retail, the highlights were São Paulo (-5.8%) and Rio de Janeiro (-5.5%).

All the 27 Federation Units also registered negative changes compared with December last year in the extended retail trade. In terms of volume of sales, Sergipe (-22.8%), Amapá (-22.2%) and Acre (-20.5%) stood out. Rio de Janeiro (-13.7%), São Paulo (-4.7%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-17.2%) were the states that posted the biggest negative impact.

In regional terms, the cumulative performance between January and December 2015 pointed to a reduction in volume of sales of the retail trade in 26 out of the 27 Federation Units, highlighted by Amapá (-12.4%), Paraíba (-10.3%) and Goiás (-10.2%).  The only exception was Roraima, which advanced 6.5%.

Considering the extended retail trade, all the 27 Federation Units dropped, highlighted by Espírito Santo (-16.,2%); Goiás (-15.0%); Tocantins (-14.9%) and Paraíba (-14.6%).