The first estimate of 2016 for the national crops of cereals, legumes and oilseeds (upland cotton, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) totaled 210.7 million metric tons, 0.6% higher than the one obtained in 2015 (209.5 million metric tons). The estimated area to be harvested (58.5 million hectares) represented an increase of 1.3% over the harvested area in 2015 (57.7 million hectares). Rice, corn and soybeans represented 92.7% of the estimated output and 86.3% of the area to be harvested.  In relation to the previous year, there were increments of 2.6% for soybeans, reductions of 0.9% in the area for corn and of 5.1% in the rice area. Concerning production, the increases were of 5.8% for soybeans, decreases of 3.8% for rice and of 5.6% for corn. The complete publication can be accessed aqui.

Among the Major Regions, the volume of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presented the following distribution: Central-West, 88.4 million metric tons; South, 75.2 million metric tons; Southeast, 20.2 million metric tons; Northeast, 19.6 million metric tons and North, 7.3 million metric tons. Compared with the previous crops, there were increases of 17.9% in the Northeast, of 4.3% in the Southeast, and reductions of 5.4% in the North and of 1.0% in the South and of 1.6% in the Central-West Region. In the estimate for 2016, Mato Grosso led the national production of grains with a contribution of 24.0%, followed by Paraná (17.8%) and Rio Grande do Sul (14.9%), which together accounted for 56.7% of the national forecast.

Estimate of January 2016 in relation to production of 2015

Among the 26 major products, 15 registered positive percent changes in the production estimate in relation to the previous year: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (33.1%), peanuts in the shell - 2nd crop (21.3%), oat grain (9.0%), potatoes - 1st crop (8.0%), cacao nuts (2.7%), coffee beans - arabica (15.7%), coffee beans - canephora (3.3%), onion (3.7%), barley grain (43.9%), bean seed - 1st crop (18.6%), bean seed - 2nd crop (1.8%), castor beans (13.9%), cassava (4.2%), soybean grain (5.8%) and wheat grain (13.2%). Among the main products, 11 posted positive percentage changes: upland cottonseed (7.2%), paddy rice (3.8%), potatoes - 2nd crop (3.6%), potatoes - 3rd crop (21.6%), sugarcane (4.4%), bean seeds - 3rd crop (18.5%), oranges (1.7%), corn grain 1st crop (3.0%), corn grain 2nd crop (7.0%), sorghum grain (4.6%) and triticale grain (33.8%).

UPLAND COTTON (seeds) - The Brazilian production of cotton in 2016 is estimate with another decrease in the planted area, as a result of the high costs faced by the producers to plant their crops. A retraction of 2.9% expected for the total areas used in the cultivation of cotton in the country and an estimated drop of 4.5% in the average yield made the production forecast be reduced by 7.2%, probably reaching 3.8 million metric tons. Mato Grosso estimates a production of 2.3 million metric tons, a decrease of 5.4% in relation to the previous year. In Bahia, the production is estimated at 1.1 million metric tons, 8.9% lower than in 2015.

PADDY RICE - The first estimate for the national crops of 2016 reports a production of 11,845,980 metric tons, in a planted area of 2,036,321 hectares, lower, respectively, by 3.8% and 6.1%, when compared to the previous crop data. The expected average yield, of 5,818 kg/ha, is 1.4% bigger. The South Region is responsible for 81.4% of the national production estimate. Rio Grande do Sul, the biggest producer, with 71.2% of the total forecast expects a production of 8,433,761, in a area to be harvested of 1,087,023 hectares, lower, respectively, by 2.8% and 3.6%, when compared to the data of the previous crops. The expected average yield, of 7,759 kg/ha, is 0.3% bigger.

COFFEE BEANS – After two years of adverse weather conditions in the main producing states, the total production of coffee should recover and close 2016 at 2,979,798 metric tons, or 49.7 million 60 kg sacks, an increase of 12.6% in relation to 2015. The area to be harvested and the average yield should increase 1.2% and 11.2%, respectively.

The expectation towards Coffea arabica is a growth of 15.7%, with the average yield reaching 12,8%. The national production of coffee should total 2,303,316 metric tons, or 38.4 million 60 kg sacks. Minas Gerais, the major producer of the country and responsible for 69.9% of the total to be harvested, expects a crops of 1,609,619 metric tons, or 26.8 million sacks of 60 kg, a rise of 21.4% in relation to the previous year. InSão Paulo and Espírito Santo, second and third major producers of the country, the forecast is of growth of 6.9% and 21.2% in the crops of Coffea arabica. These three states together accounted for more than 90% of the national crops.

In relation to Coffea canephora, the production of the country should grow 3.3% in relation to 2015, with the average yield increasing 7.0%. The production must reach 676,482 metric tons, or 11.3 million 60 kg sacks. In Espírito Santo, the main producer of this kind of coffee, with a contribution of 71.4% of the total to be produced by the country, the average yield presents growth of 12,6% over the previous year, probably causing production to achieve 483,341 metric tons, a rise of 7.4%.

SUGARCANE - Despite the increase forecast of 1.3% in the average yield of the crops, the production estimate for 2016 reaches 721.4 million metric tons, a drop of 4.4% over the previous year. The planted area and the area to be harvested had a reduction of 11.6% and 5.6%, respectively. In São Paulo, main producer in the country and responsible for 54.1% of the national overall, production should reach 390 million metric tons, a decrease of 6.2% over the previous year, despite the increase of 2.3% in the average yield. The planted area and the area to be harvested should fall 16.6% and 8.4%, respectively.

BEAN SEEDS– The first production estimate of beans in 2016, summing up the three crops of the product, is of 3,296,411 million metric tons, an increase of 6.1% in relation to the previous year. The first crop of the product, estimated at 1,591,735 metric tons contributes with 48.3% to the total production of bean seeds. This production estimate is 18.6% higher than that of 2015; the planted area had a reduction of 1.3% and the average yield went up to 9.6%. In this estimate, the biggest producing states were Paraná (20.5%), Ceará (14.6%) and Minas Gerais (12.6%). As to beans second crop, the production estimate in January is 1,328,714 metric tons, indicating increase of 1.8% in relation to 2015. In relation to the average yield, there is a forecast of a reduction of 5.2% and for the planted area, a rise of 1.3%. The production represents 40.3% of the total bean produced by the country. The highest production estimates, for these crops, were in the states of Paraná (30.2%), Mato Grosso (17.2%) and Minas Gerais (12.4%). For thethird crop of beans, the expectation is of a fall in the production of 18.5%, which is estimated at 375,962 metric tons. The forecast of the planted area decreased 15.1% in relation to the same planting period in 2015.

CORN (in grain) – The national production of corn follows the downward trend and presents a percentage of minus 5.6% in comparison with the previous year. The items of greatest impact for this reduction are three: difficulties in the planting of the first crop due to adverse weather conditions; strong competition of soybeans getting corn first crop's area and the possibility of the planting of corn - second crop out of the ideal planting window, which can reduce the average yield. It is estimated that in 2016 80.9 million metric tons will be produced summing up the two corn crops.

For the first crop, a harvest of 28.6 million metric tons of corn in grain is expected, a reduction of 3.0% in comparison with the previous year. The three main producers of corn first crop reduced their production estimates. Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná expect a production of 5.1 million metric tons (-5.6%), 4.8 million metric tons (-14.6%) and 3.7 million metric tons (-21.3%), respectively.

For the second crop, the forecast is of an national average yield down 7.5%, staying at 5,319 kg/hectares. It is equivalent to 88.7 sacks per hectare. Thus, the production was driven down and it is estimated at 52.3 million metric tons, 7.0% lower than in 2015. For Mato Grosso, the production forecast is of 19.1 million metric tons, 10.1% lower than the super second crop obtained in 2015. In Paraná, the estimated production is of 10.4 million metric tons, 8.0% lower than in the previous year.  In Goiás, the production is estimated at 7.8 million metric tons, a high of 1.9%.

SOYBEANS (in grain) -The harvesting of soybeans has already started in the country and at this moment the adverse weather effects caused by El niño will be measured. Up to now, the set of information collected by the IBGE through the state branches is of a production of 102.7 million metric tons, above 5.8% than that of 2015.

In Goiás, it is estimated that the planted area will be of 3.3 million hectares, 1.7% below that of 2015, but with an average yield of 3,004 kg/hectare, a high of 15.7% in comparison with the previous year. The total production is estimated at 9.8 million metric tons.

Piauí estimates a production of 1.8 million metric tons, a high of 2.2%. Bahia expects a production of 4.7 million metric tons, a high of 4.6% in comparison with the previous year. Tocantins estimates a production of 2.3 thousand metric tons, a drop of 4.5% and Rondônia estimates a production of 730.1 thousand metric tons, a reduction of 2.4%.

In Mato Grosso, the production is estimated at 28.5 million metric tons, a high of 2.5%. In Paraná, the production is estimated at 18.3 million metric tons, with a high of 6.7%. In Rio Grande do Sul, the production estimate is of 16.2 million metric tons, recording an increase of 3.4%.

Surveys relative to Cereals, legumes and oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency (CONAB), an agency of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) following a process of harmonization of official crop estimates for the main Brazilian crops, which started in October 2007.

.