In the seasonally-adjusted series, the industrial output declined 1.3% in September 2015 over the previous month, registering the fourth consecutive negative figure and a cumulative loss of 4.8% in this period. Compared with the same month of the previous year in the series not seasonally adjusted, the overall industry dropped 10.9% in September 2015, recording the 19th negative rate in a row in this type of comparison and the sharpest negative rate since April 2009 (-14.1%). As a result, the industrial sector also registered negative indexes at the end the third quarter of 2015 (-9.5%) and in the nine months of the year (-7.4%), both compared with the same periods in the previous year. Having declined 6.5% in September 2015, the annualized rate - cumulative indicator in the last 12 months - recorded the sharpest drop since December 2009 (-7.1%) and kept the downward trend started in March 2014 (2.1%). Click here to access the complete publication.

Industrial Output Indicators by Major Economic Categories
Brazil - September 2015

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria
*Seasonally-adjusted series

15 of 24 sectors surveyed drop over August

Negative figures prevailed in the reduction of 1.3% of the industrial activity between August and September, reaching 15 out of the 24 sectors surveyed. Having declined 6.7%, motor vehicles, and trailers and bodies stood out, registering the second consecutive drop and a cumulative loss of 15.9% in this period. Other important negative contributions came from machinery and equipment (-4.5%), basic metals (-3.1%), wearing apparel and accessories (-4.2%), food products (-0.5%), pulp, paper and paper products (-1.9%), plastic and rubber products (-1.6%) and fabricated metal products (-1.7%). Among the eight sectors that increased the production in September, the most important performance was recorded by coke, petroleum products and biofuels, which advanced 3.5% and offset the cumulative loss of 2.7% between July and August. Other important positive impacts were posted by mining and quarrying industries (1.0%) and computer, electronic and optical products (4.0%), the former stepping up the advance of 0.7% registered in the previous month; and the latter recording a cumulative expansion of 8.7% in the last three months, after reporting a reduction of 29.7% between February and June this year.

After declining 5.3% over the immediately previous month, durable consumer goods posted the sharpest reduction in September 2015 among the major economic categories and stepped up the pace of decline against the previous month (-4.0%). Still affected by collective vacations in a number of production units, the reduced manufacturing of cars influenced as well. The sector producing intermediate goods (-1.3%) also recorded a negative rate in September and remained with a downward behavior since last February, posting a cumulative loss of 4.3% in this period. The segments of capital goods (1.0%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (0.5%) reported positive indexes in September 2015. The former interrupted seven months of negative rates in a row, when it registered a cumulative reduction of 25.2%; and the latter offset part of the cumulative loss of 3.6% recorded between July and August.

Quarterly moving average declines 1.3%

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index declined 1.3% in the quarter ended in September 2015, against the level of the previous month, keeping the downward trend started in October 2014. Among the major economic categories, capital goods (-3.0%) recorded the steepest contraction in September, maintaining the negative behavior since October last year and posting a cumulative loss of 30.7% in this period. The sectors producing intermediate goods (-1.1%), semi and non-durable consumer goods (-1.1%) and durable consumer goods (-0.1%) also registered negative rates. The first sector kept the downward trend started in September 2014; the second stepped up the magnitude of the drop against July (-0.2%) and August (-0.5%); and the last sector continued the series of negative rates started in December last year.

Industry declines 10.9% against September 2014

Compared with the same month a year ago, the industrial sector dropped 10.9% in September 2015, pointing to a widespread profile of negative figures and reaching the four major economic categories, 24 out of the 26 sectors, 68 out of the 79 groups and 76.8% out of the 805 products surveyed. September 2015 (21 days) had one less business day than the same month in the previous year (22). Having declined 39.3%, the activity of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies exerted the highest negative influence on the industry average, pressed by the reduced manufacturing of cars, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, trucks, vehicles for transportation of goods, trailers and semi-trailers, bus bodies and car pieces. Other relevant negative contributions came from machinery and equipment (-20.2%), basic metals (-14.0%), computer, electronic and optical products (-27.9%), fabricated metal products (-17.3%), plastic and rubber products (-15.0%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-19.5%), non-metallic mineral products (-12.1%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-3.4%), textiles (-22.5%), food products (-2.2%), wearing apparel and accessories (-13.6%), pharm-chemicals and pharmaceuticals (-11.8%), other chemicals (-5.0%) and furniture (-22.4%). Among the two activities that increased the production, still comparing with September 2014, the main impact was caused by mining and quarrying industries (2.6%), leveraged by the advances in crude and pelletized iron ores.

Still comparing with the same month a year ago, capital goods (-31.7%) and durable consumer goods (-27.8%) registered the steepest declines in September 2015 among the major economic categories. The sectors producing semi and non-durable consumer goods (-7.4%) and intermediate goods (-7.2%) also recorded negative rates this month, yet below the national average (-10.9%).

Having its monthly index declined 31.7% in September 2015, the sector producing capital goods registered the 19th consecutive negative rate, similar to the drop recorded last month (-33.0%). In the formation of the index, this segment was influenced by the retraction of all of its groups, with a highlight to the reduction of 38.4% in capital goods for transportation equipment, pressed by the reduced manufacturing of tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, trucks, vehicles for transportation of goods, trailers and semi-trailers, ships, rail cars for transportation of goods and buses. The other negative rates were registered by capital goods for mixed use (-37.9%), for industrial purposes (-9.7%), for construction (-55.4%), for agriculture (-24.8%) and for electricity (-14.2%).

The segment of durable consumer goods fell 27.8% in the monthly index of September 2015, the 19th negative rate in a row in this kind of comparison and the most intense since June 2014 (-32,8%). In September, this sector was particularly influenced by the lower manufacture of cars (-38.1%), due to the reduction in the working hours and by the granting of collective vacation in a number of producing units. Other important negative impacts came from white goods (-21.4%) and brown goods (-14.3%), motorcycles (-6.6%), furniture (-22.8%) and other household appliances (-9.2%).

The reduction in the production of semi and non-durable consumer goods (-7.4%) in September 2015 was the 11th consecutive negative rate compared with the same month a year ago, repeating the figure reported last August (-7.4%). The performance in September was explained by the retractions reported by all its groups: semi-durable (-14.4%), non-durable (-10.9%), food and beverages for domestic consumption (-2.4%) and fuels (-6.5%).

In the comparison with the same month a year ago, the production of intermediate goods (-7.2%) in September 2015 recorded the 18th consecutive negative rate and the most intense since July 2009 (-11.1%). The September´s result was mainly explained by the declines in products associated with the activities of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-31.3%), basic metals (-14.0%), fabricated metal products (-19.0%), plastic and rubber products (-14.6%), non-metallic mineral products (-12.1%), other chemicals (-5.4%), textiles (-21.5%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-2.0%) and machinery and equipment (-7.1%), whereas the positive pressures were registered by mining and quarrying industries (2.6%), food products (0.3%) and pulp, paper and paper products (0.5%). This category also recorded drops in the groups of typical inputs for civil construction (-19.1%), which marked the 19th negative rate in a row and the most intense since the beginning of the time series, and of packaging (-7.5%), which accelerated the drop of 5.6% posted last month and also registered the highest decline in the time series.

Industrial output retracts 9.5% in Q3

Having declined 9.5% in the third quarter of 2015 on a quarterly basis, the industrial sector recorded the sixth negative rate in this type of comparison and the steepest drop since the period of April-June 2009 (-11.9%), both compared with the same periods of the previous years. The reduced pace of production in the overall industry between the second (-6.5%) and the third quarter of 2015 (-9.5%) was reported in the four major economic categories. Capital goods (from -22.0% to -30.7%) posted the major loss between the two periods and remained the highest negative figure along the three quarters of 2015. Having changed from -12.4% to -19.0%, the segment of durable consumer goods remained showing two-digit negative rates along 2015, besides stepping up the magnitude of the drop. The sectors producing intermediate goods (from -3.3% to -6.1%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (from -7.5% to -8.0%) also stepped up the intensity of the loss between the two periods, yet showing negative figures below the industry average in the third quarter of 2015.

Cumulative index in 2015 falls 7.4%

In the cumulative index for the January-September period of 2015 over the same period in the previous year, the industrial sector posted a decrease of 7.4%, with widespread fall, since the four major economic categories, 25 out of the 26 sectors, 68 out of the 79 groups and 74.2% out of the 805 products surveyed declined the production. Among the sectors, the main negative impact was reported in motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-23.3%), pressed by the reduced manufacturing of about 92% of the products investigated in this activity. The highlights were the drops seen in cars, trucks, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, car pieces, trailers and semi-trailers, vehicles for transportation of goods and bodies for trucks and buses. Other relevant negative contributions to the national overall came from the sectors of computer, electronic and optical products (-28.4%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-6.0%), machinery and equipment (-13.1%), food products (-3.4%), basic metals (-8.3%), pharm-chemicals and pharmaceuticals (-14.3%), fabricated metal products (-10.6%), rubber and plastic products (-7.8%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-9.8%), non-metallic mineral products (-6.5%), wearing apparel and accessories (-10.3%), other chemicals (-4.1%), textiles (-12.8%) and beverages (-5.8%). On the other hand, the only positive influence was reported by mining and quarrying industries (7.3%), leveraged, at a large extent, by items crude and pelletized iron ores and crude petroleum oil.

Among the major economic categories, the behavior of the results of the first nine months of 2015 showed lower dynamism for capital goods (-23.6%) and durable consumer goods (-15.7%), particularly pressed by the reduction in the manufacture of capital goods for transportation equipment (-29.4%), in the first category, and of cars (-16.0%) and household appliances (-21.2%), in the second one. The segments of semi and non-durable consumer goods (-7.1%) and intermediate goods (-4.1%) also registered negative rates in the cumulative index in the year. The former segment still declining above the magnitude of the drop of the national average (-7.4%), and the latter recording the most moderate decline among the major economic categories.