The second projection for the 2017 harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds registered 210.1 million tonnes, 14.2% bigger than the 2016 harvest. This increase was due to bigger projections in all the regions: North (5.1%), Northeast (53.9%), Southeast (8.3%), South (5.4%) and Central-West (20.1%).

The eleventh estimate for the 2016 harvest added up to 183.9 million tonnes, representing a drop of 12.3% over 2015 (209.7 million tonnes). The area to be harvested (57.2 million hectares) was 0.8% smaller than the area last year.

Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group, representing 92.4% of the production estimate and accounted for 87.9% of the area to be harvested. The area for soybeans increased 2.8%, the area for corn reduced 1.5% and the area for rice reduced 10.1% in relation to the previous year. Concerning the production in relation to 2015, the three assessments were negative: -1.5% for soybeans, -15.5% for rice and -25.5% for corn.

The complete publication of the survey can be accessed here.

Cereals, legumes and oilseeds
Major Regions and Federation Units
Participation in production
November 2016

Cereals, legumes and oilseeds
Major Regions and Federation Units
Participation in production
November 2016

In regional terms, the volume of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds registered the following distribution: Central-West, 75.0 million tonnes; South, 72.9 million tonnes; Southeast, 19.7 million tonnes; Northeast, 9.8 million tonnes and North, 6.6 million tonnes.

Reductions of 2.1% in the Southeast, 14.6% in the North, 40.6% in the Northeast, 16.4% in the Central-West and 3.8% in the South were registered in comparison with the previous harvest. In the 2016 survey, Mato Grosso led the national production of grains with a contribution of 23.9%, followed by Paraná (19.3%) and Rio Grande do Sul (17.1%). These states together accounted for 60.3% of the national forecast.

November's estimate in relation to October 2016

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production of  November the highlights were the changes in the following production estimates in comparison with October: potatoes - 2nd crop (7.5%), potatoes - 3rd crop (4.6%), barley (6.9%), oat grain (2.6%), wheat (1.8%), sorghum (-0.6%), onions (-1.0%) and bean seed - 2nd crop (-1.2%).

POTATOES – The estimated national production of potatoes in 2016 added up to 3,830,707 tonnes in the three crops, representing an increase of 3.1% against the previous month. The changes were higher in the second and third crops (7.5% and 4.6%, respectively). The results of the second crop were mainly influenced by Bahia, whose estimated production increased 138.3% in relation to the previous month. The production expected in the third crop rose 4.6%, influenced by an increase of 79.8% in the estimated production in Bahia.

ONIONS – The estimated national production reached 1,527,305 tonnes in November, a drop of 1.0% against the previous month. The estimated average yield fell 0.6%, whereas the planted area and the area to be harvested were revised and dropped 0.5%. The data reflected the figures in Goiás, whose estimates for planted area and area to be harvested were reduced by 16.7% in November, resulting in a decrease in the estimated production by this same percentage.

WINTER CEREALS – The estimated production of oat hit 776,388 tonnes in November, an increase of 2.6% against the previous month. The data were influenced by Paraná, whose estimated production rose 15.4%, due to the increases of 12.4% in the average yield and of 2.6% in the estimated harvested area.

In regard to barley, the estimated production increased 6.9% in November when compared with the previous month. The expected production was of 338,083 tonnes and the average yield, 3,806 kg/ha, an increase of 7.0%. The data were influenced by the result of Paraná, whose estimated production of 194,291 tonnes represented an increase of 12.6% against the previous month.

Concerning wheat, the estimated production in Brazil should reach 6,416,632 tonnes in 2016, due to the increase of 1.8% in the estimated average yield, representing an increase of 1.8% against the previous month. In November, the estimated production of wheat rose 3.5% in Paraná, which should harvest 3,383,850 tonnes in 2016.

BEAN SEED – The total national production of beans estimated in November was reduced by 0.5% in relation to October. Unfavorable weather conditions that took place along 2016 influenced the shortfall of the beans crop in relation to 2015.

The estimate of the second crop of beans was reduced by 1.2% against the October´s estimate, reflecting the drop of 2.4% in the harvested area and the increase of 1.2% in the expected average yield. The decrease in the expected production of the second crop of beans was of 12,399 tonnes and was mainly due to Alagoas, whose harvested area was reduced by 68.2% in relation to October, retreating the production estimate by 68.3% and representing a loss of 10,912 tonnes in this state alone.

SORGHUM GRAIN – The production estimate of sorghum was 1,154,373 tonnes in 2016, a drop of 0.6% against the previous month (- 6,929 tonnes). The harvested area fell 0.4% and the average yield, 0.3%. The data reflected adjustments in the estimates, mainly in the following states: Tocantins (-3,365 tonnes), Mato Grosso (-4,170 tonnes) and Goiás (+1,486 tonnes).

November 2016 estimate versus 2015 output

Of the 26 major products, nine of them recorded positive percentage changes in the production estimate in relation to the previous year: oat grain (53.8%), potatoes - 3rd crop (3.1%), coffee beans (arabica) (23.9%), onions (5.6%), barley grain (81.5%), bean seed - 3rd crop (5.4%), cassava (3.6%), wheat grain (16.5%) and triticale grain (30.4%). Seventeen products posted a negative change: upland cottonseed (-16.9%), peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (-10.3%), peanuts in the shell – 2nd crop (-27.4%), paddy rice (-15.5%), potatoes - 1st crop (-3.2%), potatoes - 2nd crop (-0.2%), cacao nuts (-21.4%), coffee beans (canephora) (28.2%), sugarcane (-2.0%), bean seed - 1st crop (-15.7%), bean seed - 2nd crop (-21.4%), oranges (-4.5%), castor beans (-52.7%), corn grain - 1st crop (-16.2%), corn grain - 2nd crop (-30.4%), soybean grain (-1.5%) and sorghum grain (-46.0%).

Perspectives for 2017 harvest

In this second projection, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2017 was estimated at 210.1 million tonnes, 14.2% higher than the total crop harvested in 2016. This increase was due to higher forecast in every region: North (5.1%), Northeast (53.9%), Southeast (8.3%), South (5.4%) and Central-West (20.1%).

In the analysis of the six most important products for the next summer harvest, only one of them registered a negative change in the output in relation to 2016: peanuts in a shell - 1st crop (-1.9%). The other products recorded positive changes in their outputs: upland cottonseed (7.1%), paddy rice (8.5%), bean seed - 1st crop (25.0%), corn grain - 1st crop (18.0%) and soybean grain (7.8%).

In the case of Federation Units with no initial estimates, the figures surveyed were added to the projections based on the information obtained in previous years. As this forecast has been carried out through field surveys and calculated projections, the field information accounted for 65.7% of the estimated national production, while the projections accounted for 34.3% of the estimated overall.

UPLAND COTTONSEED – 3.6 million tonnes were expected in the 2017 harvest, 1.8% above the last forecast and 7.1% above the estimate for the 2016 harvest. Regardless of the reduction of the planted area compared with the 2016 harvest (-4.6%), better climate conditions were expected to raise the overall average yield (+12.0%).

PADDY RICE – The second estimate for the 2017 national harvest reported an expected production of 11,286,442 tonnes and an average yield of 5,838 kg/ha, respectively 8.5% and 7.9% higher wen compared with the data from the previous harvest. The planted area was 2.3% smaller.

BEAN SEED - 1st crop – The second summer forecast of beans (first crop) for 2017 posted an increase of 25.0% in relation to the volume harvested in 2016, adding up to 1,423,886 tonnes. This impressive rise was the result of the increase in the area to be harvested, estimated at 1,709,389 hectares, 21.6% larger than in the previous period, when a number of crops in the Northeast Region were affected by the drought. The increase in the estimates of the planted area and area to be harvested was also due to the good price of the product, which remained high throughout 2016. The average yield was also expected to rise (2.8%) and reach 833 kg/ha, provided that the good climate conditions remained.

The total output of beans in 2017 was expected to surpass 3.0 million tonnes. Nevertheless, it should be highlighted that the estimates for the second and third crops were still based on projections of the averages over the last five years, discarding the extreme results.

CORN GRAIN -  1st crop – The second forecast for the output of corn in 2017 reported positive figures for this crop. The planted area was expected to increase 6.4% and the average yield, 5.9%. This increase resulted in a production of 28,683,309 tonnes, 18% above that in the previous period, which recorded significant losses due to harsh weather conditions that compromised the performance of the crops.  The perspective for 2017 was that the first crop be responsible for 35.3% of the overall production of corn in Brazil.

SOYBEAN GRAIN – The second production estimate for 2017 remained optimistic in relation to the harvest of this legume. As the planting approached its end, an increase of 7.8% was expected in relation to the output in 2016, possibly reaching 103,528,123 tonnes. This volume signaled a new record in the overall production of this grain next year.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). The surveys relative to cereals (rice, corn, oat, rye, barley, sorghum, wheat and triticale), legumes (peanuts and beans) and oilseeds (cotton seed, castor beans, soybeans and sunflower) have been conducted in partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture - Conab, a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply - MAPA. That initiative is the result of a process, started in March 2007, of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.