In the seasonally-adjusted series, the retail trade changed -0.4% in terms of volume of sales in June over May, registering the fifth negative rate in a row. Still in the seasonally-adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average declined for the seventh month in a row (-0.6%) and kept the downward trend started in December 2014. In the seasonally-unadjusted series, the comparison with the same month a year ago recorded a drop in volume of sales for the third month in a row, though less intense in June (-2.7%) than those reported in May (-4.5%) and April (-3.3%). In terms of volume of sales, the other retail indexes obtained from the original time series were negative both at the end of the second quarter of 2015 (-3.5%) and cumulatively in the first six months of the year (-2.2%). Having declined -0.8% in June, the annualized rate - cumulative indicator in the last 12 months - accelerated the downward path, after retreating -0.5% up to May. The nominal revenue of sales remained positive in June in every comparison: 0.8% in relation to May 2015 (seasonally adjusted), 4.6% against June 2014, 4.2% in the cumulative rate in the year and 5.5% in the cumulative rate in the last 12 months.

The extended retail trade - which includes the retail plus the activities of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, and of construction material - posted a negative change for volume of sales (-0.8%) for the seventh consecutive month and 0.2% for nominal revenue of sales, both of them against May 2015 in the seasonally-adjusted series. Volume of sales dropped -3.5% in relation to the same month in the previous year, below the rates recorded in May (-10.4%) and April (-8.3%). As to the cumulative rates, the declines were -6.4% in the semester and -4.8% in the last 12 months. The nominal revenue of sales of the extended retail remained on the positive side against June 2014 (3.1%), yet declining -0.4% in the cumulative index in the year. The cumulative indicator in the last 12 months stayed at 1.0%.

Click here to access the complete publication.

Seven of ten activities surveyed change negatively

In the seasonally-adjusted series, both the retail trade (-0.4%) and the extended retail trade (-0.8%) declined between May and June, a movement followed by seven out of the ten activities surveyed: vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces (-2.8%), office, computer and communication material and equipment (-1.5%); furniture and household appliances (-1.2%); fabric, wearing apparel and footwear (-0.8%), fuels and lubricants (-0.6%); other personal and household articles (-0.5%); and books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-0.3%). Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (0.0%), the most important segment in the structure of the retail trade, stood stable in this comparison. The sectors of pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (0.3%) and of construction material (5.5%) advanced in June against May, the latter segment interrupting a sequence of five months of drop, when it registered a cumulative loss of 9.4% in volume of sales.

In the comparison with the same month a year ago, the volume of sales in the retail dropped -2.7% in June 2015, when five out of the eight activities recorded negative figures: furniture and household appliances (-13.6%); hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (-2.7%), fabric, wearing apparel and footwear (-4.6%) and fuels and lubricants (-1.0%). On the other hand, the following activities positively influenced the overall rate: pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles and toiletries (6.2%); other personal and household articles (1.6%); and office, computer and communication material and equipment (7.9%). Having declined -5.9%, books, newspapers, magazines and stationery did not virtually exert any significant impact on the monthly indicator of June. June 2015 (21 days) had one business day more than June 2014 (20 days), in addition to the low comparison basis (June 2014) as a result of the informal holidays imposed by the World Cup.

TABLE 1
BRAZIL - VOLUME OF SALES INDICATORS OF RETAIL TRADE AND EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE ACCORDING TO GROUPS OF ACTIVITIES: PMC - June 2015

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
(1) Seasonally-adjusted series. (2) The retail trade indicator comprises the results of the activities numbered 1 to 8.
(3) The extended retail trade indicator comprises the results of the activities numbered 1 to 10.

Having dropped -13.6% in volume of sales in relation to June last year, the segment of furniture and household appliances was the main contributor to the overall retail trade rate. The cumulative rate in the year was -11.3% and, in the last 12 months, -7.1%. This figure was explained by the lower pace of growth of credit with free resources, which changed from 11.8% in June 2014 to 4.9% in June, as well as by the behavior of the average usual real wage bill of employed persons, which dropped -4.3% in relation to June 2014.

Having dropped 2.7% in volume of sales over the same month a year before, the segment of hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco ranked in the second highest position in the contribution to the overall rate. In cumulative terms, the rate for the first six months of the year was -1.8% and, for the last 12 months, -1.2%. This activity is highly correlated with the evolution of the wage bill, which was performing negatively. It was also influenced by the rise in the prices of food at home, which increased 9.3% in 12 months, against the increase of 8.9% in the general price index, according to the IPCA.

The volume of sales of the segment of fabric, wearing apparel and footwear changed -4.6% in relation to the same month a year ago, registering the third highest contribution to the volume of sales. In cumulative terms, the rates were: -5.0% in the year and -2.9% in the last 12 months. Although the prices of wearing apparel (3.5% in 12 months) were increasing below the overall inflation (8.9%), according to the IPCA, the result of this segment was negative due to the budget restrictions of families.

The activity of pharmaceutical, medical and orthopedic articles and toiletries was the main contributor to the overall retail rate. This activity recorded a growth of 6.2% compared with June last year, and cumulative rates of 5.2% in the semester and of 6.6% in the last 12 months. The essential nature of the products traded, the wide acceptance of generic drugs in terms of effectiveness and the behavior of the prices of pharmaceuticals - which rose 6.8% in 12 months against 8.9% of the general index, according to the IPCA - were the main explanations for the positive performance of this segment.

The activity of other articles of personal and domestic use, which encompasses department, optical, jewelry, sport article, toy stores, etc., exerted the second positive impact in the retail trade rate (-2.7%), with a change of 1.6% in volume of sales in relation to June 2014. In cumulative terms, the rate for the first semester of the year was 3.9% and, for the last 12 months, 5.3%.

TABLE 3
BRAZIL - COMPOSITION OF THE MONTHLY RATE OF RETAIL TRADE,
BY ACTIVITY: PMC - JUNE 2015
(Volume of sales indicators)

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
Note: The composition of the monthly rate corresponds to the contribution of the sectoral results to the overall rate.

Extended retail falls 3.5% compared with June 2014

The extended retail, which includes the retail plus the activities of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and of construction material, changed -3.5% in relation to the same month a year ago, -6.4% in the cumulative rate in the year and -4.8% in the last 12 months. This performance reflected the behavior of sales of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, which dropped -6.4% over June 2014. The cumulative rates for this activity were -15.6% in the first six months of the year and -13.0% in the last 12 months. Even with more business days in June 2015, the drop in this activity was influenced by the lower pace of credit and by the higher compromising of the household income, causing a deceleration of the consumption in this activity.

The segment of construction material advanced 1.1% in terms of volume of sales when compared with June 2014. The higher number of business days in June also influenced the performance of this activity. Concerning the cumulative rates, the figures were negative: -4.7% in the semester and -3.2% in the last 12 months.

Retail figures negative in 22 of 27 Federation Units

Twenty-two out of the 27 Federation Units registered negative figures when compared with June 2014. In terms of negative changes in volume of sales, the highlights were Amapá (-10.2%); Paraíba (-9.0%); Alagoas (-8.0%); Goiás (-7.7%); and Amazonas (-7.6%). As to the contribution to the retail trade rate, the highlights were, in order of importance, São Paulo (-2.8%) and Rio de Janeiro (-3.6%).

Concerning the extended retail trade, 21 out of the 27 Federation Units recorded negative performance rates. The highest rates in volume of sales were reported in Paraíba (-13.3%), Amapá (-11.1%), Rondônia (-9.8%); Alagoas (-9.4%) and Tocantins (-9.2%). In terms of the impact on the result, the highlights were Minas Gerais (-8.6%); São Paulo (-1.5%); Rio Grande do Sul (-6.10%) and Rio de Janeiro (-2.9%).

Still concerning the Federation Units, the seasonally-adjusted figures for volume of sales pointed to 14 states with negative changes compared with the immediately previous month. The highlights were: Alagoas (-4.4%); Amapá (-3.7%) and Roraima (-2.7%).

Retail falls 3.5% in Q2

Having declined -3.5% in the second quarter of 2015 in relation to the same quarter last year, the volume of the retail trade posted the second negative rate in this type of comparison and accelerated the downward pace over the result of the first quarter of 2015 (-0.8%). In this same comparison, the extended retail registered the fifth quarter of negative rates, as well as accelerated the downward pace between the first and second quarters of 2015, changing from -5.3% to -7.5%.

Six out of the ten activities also recorded steeper drops in the second quarter of 2015 than in the first: hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (from -1.3% to -2.3%); fabric, wearing apparel and footwear (from -3.0% to -6.6%); furniture and household appliances (from -6.7% to -16.0%); books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (from -7.8% to -9.1%); vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces (from -14.8% to -16.4%); and construction material (from -4.3% to -5.1%). Even the activities that remained on the positive side in the quarterly comparison of the year of 2015 recorded lower rates in the second quarter of the year: pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles and toiletries (from 5.8% in the first quarter to 4.6% in the second); office, computer and communication material and equipment (from 16.9% to 3.5%) and other personal and household articles (from 7.7% to 0.4%). Although on the negative side, fuels and lubricants was the only segment that posted a lower performance rate between the first two quarters of 2015 (from -4.0% to -2.5%).

Retail sales fall 2.2% in first semester

The volume of retail sales dropped -2.2% in the cumulative index at the end of the first semester of 2015 against the same period last year. This was the first drop since the second semester of 2003 (-1.9%). The main negative contributions to the overall result of the retail trade came from the groups of furniture and household appliances, which changed from a retreat of -3.3% in the second semester of 2014 to -11.3% in the first semester of 2015, and of hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (from -0.7% to -1.8%), pressed both by the reduced and expensive credit and by the reduced usual real wage bill noticed along the year of 2015.

After declining -3.3% in the second semester of 2014, the half-yearly rate of the extended retail registered an increasing downward pace in the first semester of 2015 (-6.4%). It was mainly influenced by the deceleration of sales in the segment of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, which changed from -10.7% to -15.6% between the second semester of 2014 and the first semester of 2015.