In December 2015, industry recorded decrease (-0.7%) versus the November figure, in the seasonally adjusted series. Industrial output also declined when compared with December 2014 figures (-11.9%). Considering the cumulative index in the year, the industrial sector faced its biggest decrease (-8.3%) in the series initiated in 2003. The cumulative index in 12 months recorded its biggest fall (-8.3%) since November 2009 (-9.4%).
The complete publication of the Monthly Survey of Industry is available here.

In December 2015, industry keeps its reduced pace of production, resulting not only in the seventh consecutive negative rate in comparison with the immediately previous month (the main drops in the time series), but also in a predominance of negative rates in December. In that month, most of the activities surveyed faced production decrease. As a result, industry stands at 19.5% below the record level reached in June 2013. Alsoin the seasonally adjusted series, the signs of smaller industrial activity were evidenced by the quarterly moving average (-1.2%), which has remained on a downward trend since October 2014.

Compared with December 2014, the industrial sector recorded its 22nd negative rate in a row. As a result, industry registered its biggest decline in the time series (-8.3%) which started in 2003, with a predominance of negative rates among the major economic activities and the activities surveyed. The highlights were the declines in the sectors of capital goods and durable consumer goods.

This loss of dynamism stands out in the analysis by semester. Industry registered negative results over the year 2015, with increasing decline fall from the first (-5.9%) to the second semester (-10.5%), against the same period in the previous year. Among the major economic categories, there were drops, being the most significant ones in capital goods (from -19.8% in the first semester to –31.2% in the second one) and durable consumer goods (from -14.1% to -23.2%). That resulted mainly from the lower output of capital goods for transportation equipment (from -25.7% to -35.9%), in the former, and cars (from -14.5% to -24.3%), in the latter. The segments of intermediate goods (from -2.7% to -7.6%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (from -6.5% to -6.8%) also faced a retreat between the two periods.

In the seasonally adjusted series, industrial output declined 0.7% in December 2015 versus the previous month, registering the seventh consecutive negative figure and a cumulative loss of 8.7% in this period. Compared with the same month in the previous year, in the non-adjusted series, the industry overall faced decrease of 11.9% in December 2015, recording the 22nd negative rate in a row in this type of comparison. As a result, the industrial sector indexes posted negative results both for the closing of the fourth quarter (-11.8%) and for cumulative figires in the second semester of 2015 (-10.5%), being both comparisons against the same period in the previous year. In the cumulative index of 2015, industrial activity had a retreat (-8.3%) versus the same period a year before, the biggest decline in the time series which started in 2003. The annualized rate – cumulative indicator in the last 12 months (-8.3%) recorded the biggest drop since November 2009 (-9.4%) and kept the downward trend initiated in March 2014 (2.1%).

Industry decreases (-0.7%) in the seasonally-adjusted series

The reduction of 0.7% in the industrial activity between November and December fell in 13 out of the 24 sectors surveyed. Among the sectors, the main negative influences came from machinery and equipment (-8.3%), beverages (-8.4%), basic metals (-5.0%) and toiletries, soaps, cleaning and personal hygiene products (-3.5%). The first subsector had increased pace of decrease in the previous month (-2.0%); the second offset three months of consecutive negative results, with cumulative decrease og 9.8% in the period; the third one eliminated the cumulative expansion of 1.5% from October and November; and the fourth one recorded decrease after slight increase of 0.1% in the previous month.

Other important negative contributions to the industrial overall came from the activities of electrical machinery and apparatus (-6.6%), fabricated metal products (-4.5%), textiles (-9.1%), non-metallic mineral products (-3.5%) and wood products (-5.6%). Except for the last one, which increased 0.8% in the previous month, the others activities had a retreat in the last November: -0.6%, -0.4%, -0.5% e -3.2%, respectively. On the other hand, among the ten sectors recording output increase this month, the most important contributions to the overall average came from food products (2.6%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (3.3%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (4.7%), computer, electronic and optical products (12.2%) and pulp, paper and paper products (5.4%).

Among the major economic categories, still in comparison with the previous month, capital goods dropped 8.2%, recording the only negative rate in December 2015. That was the steepest drop since December 2014 (-9.7%) and the third consecutive negative result, with cumulative decrease of 12.6% in this period. On the other hand, the other segments had positive rates in the month. Having advanced 9.4%, durable consumer goods registered the highest expansion, interrupting four consecutive months of decline in production, with cumulative decrease of 18.1%. Producers of intermediate goods (0.7%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (0.3%) recorded moderate advances in the month, the former having eliminated a loss of 10.7% observed between February and November 2015; the latter with increase of the positive rate recorded in the previous month (0.2%), after retreat of 0.8% last October.

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the quarterly moving average index declined (-1.2%) in the quarter ended in December 2015, keeping the downward trend initiated in October 2014. Among the major economic categories, also in relation to the marginal movement of this index, capital goods (-4.3%) had the steepest reduction in December, keeping a sequence of negative rates since October 2014 with a cumulative -36.5% in this period.

Industry declines (-11.9%) against December 2014

In the comparison with the same month a year ago, the industrial sector declined 11.9% in December 2015, with negative results in the four major economic categories, 24 out of the 26 segments, 68 out of the 79 groups and 76.0% of the 805 products surveyed. Among the activities, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-30.9%) exerted the major negative influences on the industry average, affected, to a great extent, by the reduction in the manufacturing of cars, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, vehicles for transportation of goods, trucks, car pieces and bodies for buses and trucks.

Other relevant negative contributions to the industrial output were: mining and quarrying industries (-11.5%), machinery and equipment (-25.2%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-7.6%), basic metals (-14.1%), computer, electronic and optical products (-37.1%), fabricated metal products (-19.0%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-22.3%), non-metallic mineral products (-15,.3%), beverages (-11.1%), other chemicals (-7.5%), plastic and rubber products (-12.1%), wearing apparel and accessories (-18.4%) other transportation equipment (-22.0%). On the other hand, still in the comparison with December 2014, food products (4.4%) and pulp, paper and paper products (2.6%) were the two activities which recorded production increase in December.

Still versus the same month a year ago, capital goods (-31.9%) and durable consumer goods (-24.7%) registered the steepest declines among the major economic categories. The sectors producing intermediate goods (-11.4%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (-4.2%) also recorded negative rates this month, but below the national average (-11.9%).

The sector of capital goods (-31.9%) registered the 22nd consecutive negative rate, with a lower figure than that of the previous month (-31.1%). In the formation of the December’s index, this segment was influenced by the retraction of all of its groups, with a highlight to the reduction of 32.9% in capital goods for transportation equipment, mainly due to the reduced manufacturing of tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, vehicles for transportation of goods, ships (including oil tankers and platforms), trucks, buses and trailer and semi-trailers. The other negative rates were registered by capital goods for industrial use (-20.4%), mixed use (-40.1%), for agriculture (-32.7%), for construction (-48.7%) and for electricity (-20.7%).

The sector producing durable consumer goods (-24.7%) registered the 22nd negative rate in a row in this type of comparison, but less intense than in November (-28.9%). In December, this sector was particularly influenced by the reduced manufacturing of cars (-24.1%) and of white (-26.9%) and brown goods (-22.6%), idue to reduced shifts and collective vacations in a number of producing units. Other important negative impacts came from motorcycles (-39.3%), furniture (-19.5%) and other household appliances (-21.7%).

Still in the comparison with December 2015, the production of intermediate goods (-11.4%) recorded its 22nd negative rate in a row and the most significant one since May 2009 (-12.7%). This result is explained by the decline in the products related to the activities of mining and quarrying industries (-11.5%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-30.2%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-13.3%), basic metals (-14.1%), non-metallic mineral products (-15.3%), fabricated metal products (-18.1%), other chemicals (-7.6%), plastic and rubber products (-12.2%), textiles (-23.3%) machinery and equipment (-14.3%). Positive contributions came from food products (12.5%) and pulp, paper and paper products (3.2%). Declines also occurred in the groups of inputs for civil construction (-21.6%), with the 22nd consecutive negative rate and the most intense in the time series, and packaging (-4.1%), which registered its 12thdecline compared with the same month a year ago.

The drop in the production of semi and non-durable consumer goods (-4.2%) was the 14th consecutive negative rate in December 2015 in this comparison, but it had a less significant drop than November (-5.1%). The performance in December was explained by the declines registered in the activities of semi-durable consumer goods (-16.3%), non-durable consumer goods (-8.9%) and food and beverages processed for domestic consumption (-1.9%). On the other hand, the subsectors of fuels (12.2%) registered the only positive result in this category, pushed by the higher manufacturing of ethyl alcohol.

Industry declines (-11.8%) in the fourth quarter of 2015

Having decreased 11.8% in the fourth quarter of 2015, industry recorded the 17th negative rate in a row in this type of comparison and the sharpest drop since April-June 2009 (-11.9%), both comparisons against the same period of the previous year. The reduction in the industrial overall, from the third (-9.3%) to the fourth quarter of 2015 (-11.8%) occurred in three out of the four major economic categories, durable consumer goods (from -18.9% to -27.6%) representing the main loss between the two periods, influenced, to a large extent, by the manufacturing of cars (from -18.9% to -29.9%) and household appliances (from -20.9% to -25.2%). Intermediate goods (from -5.8% to -9.6%) and capital goods (from -30.5% to -32.0%) also registered declines, the former pushed by the slower pace in the mining and carrying industries (from 3.5% to -7.3%), and the latter remained as the main decrease since the third quarter of 2014. Conversely, decrease was reduced for semi and non-durable consumer goods (from -7.8% to -5.8%) between the two periods, but figures kept decreasing for the fifth consecutive quarter.

Industry also records cumulative decrease in 2015 (-8.3%)

In the cumulative index of the year, versus the same period in the previous year, the industrial sector fell by 8.3%. Negative rates prevailed among the four major economic categories, 25 out of the 26 sectors, 71 out of the 79 groups and 78.3% of the 805 products surveyed recorded decline in production. Among the sectors, the main negative impact was reported in motor vehicles, trailer and bodies (-25.9%), mainly due to the reduced manufacturing of about 97% of the products investigated in this activity. The highlights were the drops seen in cars, trucks, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, vehicles for transportation of goods, car pieces, trailers and semi-trailers for buses and trucks.

Other important declines in industry came from the sectors of computer, electronic and optical products (-30.0%), machinery and equipment (-14.6%), coke, petroleum products and fuels (-5.9%), basic metals (-8.9%), fabricated metal products (-11.4%), food products (-2.3%), plastic and rubber products (-9.1%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-12.2%), chemicals and pharmaceuticals (-12.2%), non-metallic mineral products (-7.8%), other chemicals (-4.9%), wearing apparel and accessories (-10.8%) and textiles (-14.6%). On the other hand, the only positive influence was reported by mining and quarrying industries (3.9%).

Among the major economic categories, the results for the twelve months of 2015 showed lower dynamism for capital goods (-25.5%) and durable consumer goods (-18.7%), particularly considering the reduction in the manufacturing of capital goods for transportation equipment (-30.7%), in the first category, and of cars (-19.4%) and household appliances (-22.1%), in the second one. The segments of semi and non-durable consumer goods (-5.2%) also registered negative rates in the cumulative index in the year. The former segment declined below the national average drop (-8.3%), and the latter recorded the most moderate decline among the major economic categories.